Chelsea and Liverpool meeting the Carabao Cup final on Sunday, with both managers looking to win their first domestic cup. Jake Pearson previews the fixture, picking out his best bet.
Football betting tips: Carabao Cup final
2pts Liverpool to take the most corners in 90 minutes at 5/6 (Sky Bet)
That you only need to go back to the December 3rd to find Chelsea sat at the top of the Premier League tells its own tale of how Thomas Tuchel’s side have struggled in recent months, the Blues now 13 points behind leaders Manchester City.
Additionally, up until last Sunday, another City league title looked a mere formality, but with Pep Guardiola’s men losing to Tottenham, and Liverpool hammering Leeds 6-0 in midweek, the Reds are now just three points off the pace with the two still to meet at the Etihad in April.
That is the league though, and this Sunday that is all put to one side as the two go head-to-head in the English League Cup final.
Although these are two of the best teams in English football, the fact that this competition will not be won by Manchester City for the first time since 2016/17 makes this cup final something of a breath of fresh air – though not really.
Kick-off time: 16:30 GMT, Sunday
TV Channel: Sky Sports Main Event
Chelsea 21/10 | Draw 23/10 | Liverpool 13/10
The tactical battle between Tuchel and Jurgen Klopp will completely dominate the narrative coming into the fixture, and rightly so, they are the undoubted driving forces behind both teams.
Klopp is yet to get the better of Tuchel in the Premier League – one win for Tuchel and two draws (both this season) – but the momentum is certainly with the Reds coming into this particular match-up.
Liverpool are on a run of nine successive wins, including the aforementioned demolition of Leeds on Wednesday evening, Klopp’s men recording their highest xGF (expected goals for) total since Infogol began collecting data.
Liverpool's 5.11 xG in their 6-0 win over Leeds is their highest Premier League xG figure since Infogol started collecting data in 2014. pic.twitter.com/lAuk3Ns9Ol
— Sporting Life Football & Infogol (@InfogolApp) February 23, 2022
Chelsea arrive into this match on the back of a comfortable 2-0 win over Lille in the Champions League on Tuesday, but performances have been lacking of late, and two wins across their last six league matches paints a worrying picture.
The benefit for the Blues is that Tuchel, perhaps even more so than Klopp, is a dab hand at readying his team for a one-off match, his tactical nous second-to-none across world football currently.
Stopping this Liverpool side in the form they are in, particularly going forward, is a big ask though, so instead of predicting who will be holding the trophy aloft come Sunday evening, delving into the less conventional markets could prove the most fruitful way forward in the first cup final of the season.
Aside from scoring plenty of goals and creating even more chances, Liverpool also excel in racking up a huge number of corners – though all three are not necessarily mutually exclusive.
In fact, only Manchester City can better the Reds’ average of 7.92 corners per game in the Premier League this season, allowing just 3.29 against
Across their 26 league matches, they have taken more corners than their opponents on 21 occasions.
Whether Chelsea or Liverpool emerge victorious in this fixture, it is difficult to argue against Liverpool being the more dominant team in an attacking sense, in their present incarnation at least, and as such, they are expected to take more shots, rack up more expected goals, and therefore force more corners.
That Chelsea have won the corner battle in just two of their last five league matches, including losing to Liverpool when the two met at the beginning of January, means a price of 5/6 about LIVERPOOL TO TAKE THE MOST CORNERS is worth backing, and with confidence.
Chelsea v Liverpool best bets and score prediction
- 2pts Liverpool to take the most corners in 90 minutes at 5/6 (Sky Bet)
Score prediction: Chelsea 1-2 Liverpool (Sky Bet odds: 8/1)
Odds correct at 1615 GMT (22/02/22)
More from Sporting Life
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.
