Sam Allardyce’s first game as West Bromwich Albion boss is a West Midlands derby with unpredictable Aston Villa. Black Country boy Michael Beardmore has best bets and a preview.
Football betting tips: West Brom v Aston Villa
1pt Aston Villa (-4) corner handicap at 31/10
1pt Draw HT/Aston Villa FT at 9/2
0.5pt Aston Villa to beat West Brom 1-0 at 17/2
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
West Brom v Aston Villa
- 19:15 GMT kick-off on BT Sport 1
- Match odds: Home 13/5 | Draw 11/4 | Away 19/20
‘Big Sam’ is back with a big ask – to keep West Bromwich Albion in the Premier League, and his first assignment is an intriguing West Midlands derby with upwardly-mobile Aston Villa.
Sam Allardyce could have been handed more daunting tasks for his maiden game in charge of the Baggies but, equally, Villa’s fine away form this season make them heavy, and rightful, favourites.
Dean Smith’s side have won four of their five games on their travels this season and were incredibly unfortunate to lose the one they did, at West Ham.
The hosts will be looking to build on the point they gained in their improbable 1-1 draw at Manchester City in midweek in what proved to be Slaven Bilic’s final game in charge.
Despite that, they sit 19th, three points from safety with more than a third of the season gone after just one win in 13 games – but Allardyce has inherited more desperate situations than that…
Can Big Sam keep West Brom up?
That’s the job he’s been brought in to do – and it’s a wonder he hasn’t been rechristened ‘Fireman Sam’ by the tabloid wags after the extinguishing feats he has performed with other clubs.
Considering the stature of the clubs he has managed, it is astounding – and perhaps reflective of his abilities, even if his naysayers may disagree – that Allardyce has never experienced relegation.
He took unfashionable Bolton into the top flight in 2001 and kept them there for seven seasons until leaving in 2007 and, after a brief stint at Newcastle, first gained that firefighter reputation by keeping seemingly-doomed Blackburn up in 2008-09. Rovers were 19th and five points adrift of safety when he took over but they survived by seven points.
A promotion and top-flight stability with West Ham followed but after leaving in 2015 – ironically to be replaced by Bilic – he cemented that burgeoning firefighter tag with three different clubs in the following three seasons.
His feat of keeping Sunderland up in 2015-16 was the pick of the bunch, given they had accumulated just three points from their opening eight games when he assumed the reins in October 2015.
But, after his ill-fated and scandal-hit one-game spell as England boss, leading Crystal Palace and Everton to comfortable survival in the subsequent two campaigns was impressive too, given each were hovering just above the drop when he arrived.
The Toffees jettisoned him in the summer of 2018 with fans unhappy over his style of play and that is another battle he might have to fight when supporters return to the Hawthorns, where Tony Pulis was largely reviled despite keeping the Baggies in the top flight three seasons running.
Despite Allardyce’s previous escape acts, the bookies are unconvinced lightning will strike for a fifth time and they are 2/5 to go down. Sky Bet offer a market-leading 11/4 that he keeps the Baggies up – that’s not a bad price at all considering his record and the fact they are only three points adrift.
Will Allardyce’s West Brom beat Aston Villa?
While ‘Big Sam’ has worked miracles to keep Blackburn, Sunderland, Crystal Palace and Everton up, his impact has not always been immediate.
He won his first games in charge of Blackburn and Everton but lost three of his first four as Sunderland boss including, ironically, a 1-0 defeat at the Hawthorns in his opening game, and he took six matches to achieve his first win as Palace gaffer.
So while Baggies fans can expect improvements in the long-term, there’s no guarantee of a short-term fix – especially with away day specialists Villa in town.
Having said that, the Baggies did hold Man City, they have the ‘new manager bounce’ and are no mugs – so the even-money generally available on an away win is somewhat short of value.
I do think Villa will edge this but I expect the Baggies to give them a battle – if you excuse the 5-1 loss to Crystal Palace when Albion went down to 10 men in the first half, they have tightened up defensively: three of their past four defeats have been only by the odd goal.
With Allardyce in charge, that steel will surely continue and I fancy them to keep Villa at bay until the visitors’ class shows, which is why the 9/2 available on the Draw/Villa HT/FT entices me.
If you fancy the visitors to win by a goal, that’s available at 3/1 but I am taking a flier on the 0-1 correct score at 17/2 (General), the same outcome as Villa’s last game, also a derby, at Wolves.
Goals have dried up for previously free-scoring Villa (just three in their past four) but they have kept four away clean sheets out of five while Albion are the Premier League’s third lowest scorers, so a 1-0 visitors’ victory appeals.
While goals are hard to come by for the Villans, corners aren’t – the 11 they registered in Thursday’s 0-0 draw with Burnley taking them up to a mammoth league-high 84 for the season.
That’s massively more than the 53 won by West Brom – and Villa have played two games fewer! Albion have had four or fewer corners in six of their past eight games, the anomaly being the 14 they earned against bottom club Sheffield United.
Villa’s corner count over the same sequence has been 18, 8, 7, 12, 8, 11, 6 and 7. We profited at 3/1 on 7+ Villa corners at West Ham last month but the bookies have cottoned on and it’s now odds-on.
I’m instead minded to back Villa on the corner handicap and it’s just a matter of where to draw that line. Albion are averaging are four corners a game and Villa around eight so I’m suggesting a small play on -4 at 31/10 (BetVictor) - that bet would have landed in four of their past six games.
Score prediction: West Brom 0-1 Aston Villa (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
West Brom v Aston Villa best bets
Odds correct at 2200 GMT (17/12/20)
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