Mark O'Haire has a preview and best bets as Manchester United and Leeds United renew rivalries for the first time in almost a decade.
Football betting tips: Super Sunday
2.5pts Over 2.5 goals and BTTS at 4/5
1pt Harry Maguire to have 1+ headed shot on target at 3/1
1pt Leeds to have 15+ shots at 6/1
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Manchester United v Leeds
- 16:30 GMT on Sky Sports Premier League
- Match odds: Home 3/4 | Draw 10/3 | Away 15/4
When Leeds ended a 16-year exile from the Premier League, reacquainting themselves with Roses rivals Manchester United would have been towards the top of their supporters’ to-do lists. The Pennines derby has traditionally been one of the top-flight’s feistiest of fixtures and the Whites will be relishing their first return to Old Trafford in league football since 2004.
The newly-promoted club promised plenty this season under the astute leadership of Marcelo Bielsa and it’s fair to say they have captured the imagination of Premier League observers. Only Liverpool’s (3.69) matches have featured more goals per-game than Leeds’ (3.54) with five of their 13 outings producing a minimum of five goals.
There’s no secret to how Leeds approach each encounter. For Bielsa, taking the initiative is a sacrosanct principle and he has no time for teams who sit back in defence, or “speculate” as he disparagingly describes it. The Argentine has invariably deployed a high press and man-to-man defensive system, whilst demanding quick, vertical passes in attack.
It’s high-risk, high-reward, although it’s also fantastic fun to follow, and a nightmare for opposition outfits to get to grips with. Leeds may have posted five of their six losses against teams currently occupying the top-12 positions in the Premier League, but none of Liverpool, Man City, Everton or Arsenal enjoyed an easy ride against Bielsa’s boys.
However, they do have their flaws. The same cavalier and adventurous attitude has a tendency to bite them in the bottom against quality opposition, evidenced by their aforementioned return against the league’s elite teams. Only West Brom have conceded more goals than Leeds this season and their defending from set-pieces is also a deficiency.
Leeds have leaked the Premier League’s most goals from dead-ball situations (7) and that’s concerning when coming up against the wonderful delivery of Bruno Fernandes. Harry Maguire has proven a prominent figure in the opposition penalty box, only twice failing to have an attempt at goal this term, and his ability in the air will undoubtedly be targeted.
Ten of Maguire’s 16 strikes have arrived via his head and with that in mind, I’m happy to have a small interest in the England international landing at least one headed shot on-target at Old Trafford at 3/1 (Sky Bet) quotes.
Ultimately though, I’m anticipating this contest to go against the grain compared to previous Manchester United home Premier League games. The Red Devils have the pace, trickery, precision and panache to take advantage of Leeds’ high line, and the hosts’ expertise in transition should lead us towards an exciting and entertaining match-up.
Over 2.5 Goals and Both Teams To Score has been chalked up at 4/5 (bet365) and holds plenty of appeal. It’s already proven a profitable formula in seven of the visitors’ 13 outings, while United have only fired blanks on three occasions across all competitions in 2020/21, keeping clean sheets in just three of 18 league and Champions League matches.
And finally, I can’t resist an interest in the 6/1 (Betfair) on Leeds to fire in at least 15 shots. The Whites will have 24 hours' extra rest for this meeting, and their forward-thinking approach tends to lend itself to high shot counts; only three clubs are averaging more attempts than Leeds’ 15.30 per game, with this angle paying out five times already.
Brighton and West Ham have both beaten the shot line against Man Utd with Crystal Palace falling only two strikes short. The Red Devils are conceding an unflattering 11.50 efforts per-game in the top-flight and so the prospect of Leeds landing the bounty surely has more chance than the implied 14% the odds suggest on Sunday.
Score prediction: Manchester United 2-1 Leeds (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Manchester United v Leeds: Super Sunday best bets
Odds correct at 0900 GMT (18/12/20)
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