The Premier League returns on Wednesday, with Aston Villa welcoming Sheffield United before Man City host Arsenal. George Pitts looks at the betting.
Recommended bets
2pts Arsenal to have more booking points v Man City at evens
1pt John McGinn to score anytime at 19/4
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Aston Villa v Sheffield United
- 1800 BST kick-off on Sky Sports Premier League
It has been over a year now since these two were Sky Bet Championship teams and a lot has certainly happened on the field in that time. Sheffield United have been the surprise package of the season, while big-spending Villa have 10 huge games left to try avoid an immediate return to the second tier.
This will be the first chance to see the effect (or lack of) of home advantage in the Premier League and how both sides react. Dean Smith's side have collected 71% of their points this term at Villa Park, although being without the hope and expectation of their own support may actually take the weight of expectation off their shoulders.
At the opposite end of the scale, Sheffield United have been one of the league's most impressive sides on the road. They thrive in the role of the underdog and travelling to an empty ground may, as bizarre as it sounds, just hinder them ever so slightly.
Villa had lost four on the bounce going into the enforced break and the time off should actually have benefitted them, as Alex Keble notes here in his Premier League predictions.
That extra time has given Smith, John Terry and the other coaching staff a chance to wipe the slate clean and work on various tactics with an expensively-assembled squad that should have been clear of danger.
Premier League previews
More important for them is the return of John McGinn. The Scotland playmaker was arguably one of their top performers in the first half of the season before suffering a fractured ankle in December.
A lot is said about Villa being a one-man team with reliance on Jack Grealish, but scratch the surface and McGinn is just as important and he is back fit going into the final run-in.
The 25-year-old has scored three goals, assisted two more and got WhoScored's Man of the Match award four times in 18 league appearances, as well as scoring another seven for Scotland this term.
He averages two shots per game across the course of the campaign and his return will give Villa a huge lift. Considering the threat he poses in the final third, he is available to score anytime at an appealing 19/4.
The 4/5 available on him to get one effort on target was tempting, but the goalscorer price on a player with McGinn's qualities and eye for goal looks too good to pass up.
Equally, if he is not scoring then there is a good chance he will be playing a key role in creating, so the 9/2 with Sky Bet on him to set up a goal does also stand out.
McGinn scored on the opening day of the season, a defeat at Spurs, as Villa put in an impressive performance despite the final scoreline. This game will have a similar feeling here with players regaining their match sharpness and Smith has likened it to 'being away in a World Cup camp and playing a mini-tournament'.
We saw in the Bundesliga how it took a couple of matchdays to get going again and we might see some surprise results in the coming weeks.
Some sides were in form going into the break, such as Borussia Monchengladbach and Koln, and have stuttered since coming back, while odds-on favourites in LaLiga in Valencia and Real Sociedad failed to claim all three points.
The Blades will be no fools and will have kept sharp fit in lockdown. They go into the game as 6/5 favourites, but the a refreshed and McGinn-inspired Villa can at least hold them to a point.
Score prediction: Aston Villa 1-1 Sheffield United (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)
Best bets: John McGinn to score anytime at 19/4
Opta stats
- Aston Villa have lost two of their last three league meetings against Sheffield United (D1), as many as in their previous 14 against the Blades (W7 D5 L2).
- In this exact fixture in the Championship last season, Billy Sharp’s hat-trick had given Sheffield United a 3-0 lead, before Aston Villa scored three times in the final 10 minutes to salvage a point.
- Sheffield United have lost just two of their 13 away games in the Premier League this season (W4 D7), with those defeats coming against the current top two sides Liverpool and Manchester City.
- Only Liverpool (9) have conceded fewer away goals than Sheffield United in the Premier League this season (12), with the Blades the only side yet to concede more than twice in a game on the road this term.
- Aston Villa midfielder Jack Grealish has created seven chances directly following a take-on in the Premier League this season – only Adama Traore (13) has more. In fact, of players to have attempted at least 50 take-ons this season, Grealish has the highest % ending with a chance created (7% - 7/104).
- After a run of 16 games without a goal, Sheffield United’s Billy Sharp has scored three goals in his last four games in all competitions. He last scored in three consecutive games for the Blades in February 2019.
Manchester City v Arsenal
- 2015 BST kick-off on Sky Sports Premier League
If any Premier League manager knows this Manchester City squad nearly as well as Pep Guardiola, it is Mikel Arteta.
The Arsenal boss spent three years at the Etihad as assistant before leaving for the top job at the Emirates and before his departure there was even talk about him eventually succeeding Guardiola.
Arteta's development there helped him take a lot of ideas to north London, which seem to be having an impact. The Gunners have noticeably improved since his arrival, with the Spaniard's tactics clearly in place, and the extended break will have given him time to get more ideas across.
First remotely, by sending videos and having Zoom meetings with his players, followed by more time on the training ground, Guardiola has been drilling his side not only in his methods, but also those of their first opponents. The trouble is, knowing Man City is one thing, stopping them is another altogether.
One source of hope for Arsenal is the fact City have a firm grip on second with the title pretty much gone. A strong finish, though, could prepare them well for Champions League football and do not forget that Guardiola hates losing. He despises it. So he will not let them take their foot off the gas.
A big hole in Guardiola's team this season was in the centre of defence in the shape of Aymeric Laporte, but the Frenchman is back from a long-term injury as is Leroy Sane, so City have come out of the break with a stronger squad.
Arteta's men will have to be patient with City likely to dominate possession and chances. There was some appeal in backing full-back Bukayo Saka in the tackles market due to his numbers against the bigger sides and away from home, but our preference is in the cards market.
Arsenal's disciplinary record is the joint-worst in the league (along with Tottenham), with 63 yellows and three reds to their name this season. It is something they will look to improve next in the coming months, but the even-money price on them to receive more cautions here looks worth a bet.
Their team is full of players with aggression in their game - most notably Granit Xhaka, then there is David Luiz, Matteo Guendouzi, Sokratis and Lucas Torreira, to name but a few. Various scenarios favour the visitors racking up more bookings and evens is too big.
Anthony Taylor is the man in charge and he is not afraid of dishing out the cards, with 162 yellows and seven reds in 36 games (all competitions) this season.
Since the Bundesliga's return, cards are up to an average of 4.62 per game and we could see a similar uptake here, so backing Arsenal to edge this market is a good way to go without relying on the outcome for what is hopefully an entertaining first night back in the Premier League.
Score prediction: Man City 3-1 Arsenal (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)
Best bet: Arsenal to receive the most booking points at evens
Opta stats
- Manchester City have won their last six matches against Arsenal in all competitions, their best ever winning run against the Gunners.
- 12 of the last 16 Premier League goals Man City have scored against Arsenal have been in the first half, scoring at least twice in the opening 45 minutes in four of their last six meetings.
- Manchester City have lost seven Premier League games this season, one more than they had in their previous two campaigns combined. The average league position of their opponents in these seven defeats this season is 9th – Arsenal’s place in the table coming into this match.
- Arsenal manager Mikel Arteta is unbeaten in all seven of his away games in all competitions for the Gunners (W3 D4) – the longest ever unbeaten away start to a managerial reign in Arsenal’s history.
- Man City’s Sergio Agüero has scored 10 goals in his last 12 appearances against Arsenal in all competitions, netting a hat-trick in the Citizens’ 3-1 win in this exact fixture last season.
- Man City boss Pep Guardiola has never lost a home match against Arsenal in all competitions in his managerial career (P7 W6 D1), with the Gunners netting exactly once in each of these seven encounters.
- Man City’s Kevin De Bruyne has been directly involved in six goals in his last seven Premier League starts against Arsenal (four goals, two assists), netting a brace in a 3-0 win at the Emirates earlier this season.
- Arsenal striker Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang has scored 49 goals in 75 Premier League appearances – if he scores in this game he’ll be the sixth fastest player to reach 50 in the competition, with only Andy Cole (65), Alan Shearer (66), Ruud van Nistelrooy (68), Fernando Torres and Mohamed Salah (both 72) doing so in fewer games.
Odds correct as of 1400 BST on 15/06/20
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