The Premier League run-in already looked particularly interesting prior to its suspension in March, but the unique conditions of post-lockdown football have added an extra layer of volatility ahead of the final nine rounds of action.
The six-team relegation battle could engulf mid-table sides hesitant amid injury concerns and subtly demotivated by the absence of supporters, while the Champions League race could be drastically affected by shifting tactical, technical, and psychological variables that appear to hand an advantage to methodical and emotionless coaching.
Manchester City, caught in a competitive limbo that’s exacerbated by a potential Champions League ban, could find themselves ambivalent and faltering. Norwich City, losing the Carrow Road crowd ahead of crucial six pointers, appear to have been hit hardest.
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Similarly Manchester United rely on the Old Trafford crowd, as do Brighton, Crystal Palace, and West Ham, all three of which could still go down.
The Bundesliga appears to have shown that, without the emotional destabiliser of an anxious or optimistic crowd, the technically superior team can calmly dominate as home form evaporates. That can only be bad news for over-achievers like Sheffield United and Wolves.
But for every loser, there will be a winner.
Alex Keble picks out the five clubs who have most benefitted from the extended break and altered format of the 2019/20 Premier League season, with best bets for each.
Arsenal
Mikel Arteta’s tactical revolution at Arsenal was largely theoretical. His painstaking work on team shape and movement - closely mimicking Pep Guardiola’s tactical dedication to an even spread of tessellating triangles – was almost instantly visible and very impressive.
But time and time again the work was undermined by needless errors; by moments of panic that spoke to years of stagnation and its subsequent impact on a restless, angst-ridden crowd.
Arsenal, then, ought to embrace the eerie quiet of the Emirates, and after a mini pre-season to further absorb Arteta’s instructions should be well-equipped for training ground-style football.
There is a good reason why Guardiola’s City leave many people cold. The approach is so methodical, so detailed, that it produces robotic plays and footballers whose every movement is etched into muscle memory.
It is perfect for games played behind closed doors, away from the glare of the Emirates - and without the uncontrollable variable of the opponent’s home-crowd motivation.
Beat Man City on Wednesday, and they are only two points off fifth.
Arsenal are 28/1 to win the most points from the remaining games and 50/1 to go unbeaten
Chelsea
Frank Lampard, having spent the lockdown in pursuit of star names approaching their mid-20s, appears to recognise that psychological fragility is an inevitable side effect of investing in young players.
Chelsea won 23 points from their first 11 games of the season and 25 from the other 18, a trajectory that reflects both youthful exuberance and vulnerability.
Young footballers inevitably go through dips in form, crises of confidence, and so Chelsea may have benefitted more than most from the extended break. Following damaging defeats to Man United and Bayern Munich, and with Tammy Abraham scoring just twice in his last 11, Lampard’s team needed a reset.
Having raced out of the blocks in August they can do so again in June. Age will again prove advantageous as Chelsea benefit from quicker recovery times - and less rustiness from the outset - than their rivals.
What’s more, Chelsea didn’t really find any home advantage this season and their fixture list looks relatively simple, plus the imminent arrival of Hakim Ziyech, Timo Werner and possibly Kai Havertz could boost morale.
Aston Villa
At the other end of the table Aston Villa can push the reset button, delete a troubling first quarter of 2020 and look to rediscover the mentality that marked them out as neutrals’ favourites for survival in the early months of the season.
Villa began with fluency and bravery, making elite clubs battle hard for every point as John McGinn, Jack Grealish, and Tyrone Mings made headlines.
That confidence, and that aura, completely disappeared after McGinn and Tom Heaton suffered long-term injuries. Suddenly Villa’s progressivism looked like idealism and their positivity like naivety, as opponents carved through a wide-open formation and capitalised on countless defensive errors. Villa were sliding towards relegation without much of a fight.
McGinn’s return could be the symbolic catalyst for renewed confidence in Dean Smith’s tactical vision. Victory over Sheffield United on Wednesday would lift Villa out of the bottom three. That might be enough to wipe the slate clean.
Villa are 7/4 to stay up and 21/10 to beat Sheffield United on Wednesday
Tottenham
Condemning Jose Mourinho for his failure to inspire a revival at Tottenham Hotspur is to misread and misunderstand his managerial history.
He has not arrived at a club midseason since his spell at FC Porto began in January 2002, and with good reason: few coaches so ruthlessly and efficiently use pre-season to sculpt teams in their image.
Mourinho’s career is built on signing exactly the right players to fix a club’s problems and using pre-season training to drill defensive organisation, hence the often extraordinary upturn in results during his second seasons. The Premier League’s suspension has provided the Portuguese with extra time to coach his players; to get under their skin and form a tactical clique.
By now, Mourinho ought to have worked out his best 11, eradicating the hesitancy and meandering quality that had infected the squad over the previous year.
Given Tottenham have a kind set of fixtures and are still only four points off fifth, it shouldn’t be too difficult focusing minds – especially with Harry Kane back from injury, and forced to take time off rather than rush a return.
Heung-Min Son and Stephen Bergwijn are also back, giving Mourinho a full-strength squad. There are no excuses this time.
Spurs are 33/1 to win the most points and 9/2 to get a top five finish
Everton
Like Arsenal and Tottenham, Everton stand to benefit from the break because it has given them more time to absorb a new manager’s complex tactical methods.
Carlo Ancelotti has made a strong start to life at Goodison Park despite mixed results, his 4-4-2 formation immediately taking hold among a starting 11 surprisingly capable of adapting to the Italian’s demands.
Richarlison and Dominic Calvert-Lewin were forging a brilliant partnership and Alex Iwobi was coming into his own in a dual role that helped the Toffees transition between a 4-4-2 and 4-3-3 mid-game – but Everton were fatally held back by a porous central midfield, leading to a run of 13 goals conceded in their final six games before the league’s suspension.
With Ancelotti’s side just six points off the Europa League spots, they could be a surprise success story in the coming months.
Everton are 22/1 for a top six finish and 4/6 for a top half finish
Odds via Sky Bet and correct as of 1800 BST on 14/06/20
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