There's a number of games in the Nations League on Wednesday and Tom Carnduff is backing Italy and Norway for success.
Recommended bets
1pt Italy to beat Netherlands at 23/20
1pt Norway to be leading at half-time v Northern Ireland at 6/5
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Italy v Netherlands
- 19:45 BST on Sky Sports Red Button
- Match odds: Home 23/20 | Draw 23/10 | Away 23/10
The Netherlands had to find a replacement following Ronald Koeman's departure for Barcelona; Frank De Boer's arrival was far from inspiring and the early showings have backed that up.
They were beaten by Mexico in a friendly before being held to a 0-0 draw by Bosnia. No goals in either game and there is a fear that they could go backwards following progression under Koeman's guidance.
Italy may have been held in Poland but they did start the international break with a 6-0 hammering of Moldova. Perhaps crucially, they beat the Netherlands in Amsterdam last month; that has given them the edge in League A, Group 1.
De Boer's infamous spell at Crystal Palace led to those questions when he was appointed national manager. "I read something, some quote from the worst manager in the history of the Premier League – Frank de Boer," Jose Mourinho said when he was manager of Manchester United.
That is perhaps the best description of De Boer's time in the Premier League. Worst manager in the history of it? Harsh, but the stats do not make for promising reading. Four games, four defeats and no goals.
Are we following a similar pattern here? Two games have failed to bring a goal; Netherlands are in danger of becoming De Boer's next horror story.
Italy have hardly been prolific during the course of this competition but they have at least got a win on the board. I wouldn't be rushing to back a high goal count here, although the odds-against price for an Italy win looks too generous considering that managerial switch.
Score prediction: Italy 1-0 Netherlands (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
Best bet: Italy to win at 23/20
England/under 2.5 goals at 3/1 is a smart play and a great price - 16 of Denmark's past 24 competitive fixtures have seen under 2.5 goals. Gibraltar (twice), Armenia and Georgia account for half the outliers, so a more accurate picture is 16 from 20.
The Three Lions must be full of confidence after two wins and with the Danes' 80% under 2.5 goals hit-rate, 3/1 is too good.
You can take the safety net of adding on an extra goal and still get a sizeable 6/4, which also makes my staking plan.
England win to nil at 21/10 is tempting, but we're straddling that price with two under goals angles instead.
Score prediction: England 2-0 Denmark (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Best bets:
- England to beat Denmark and under 3.5 total goals at 6/4
- England to beat Denmark and under 2.5 total goals at 3/1
Click to read England v Denmark preview in full
Norway v Northern Ireland
- 19:45 BST on Sky Sports Mix
- Match odds: Home 4/9 | Draw 16/5 | Away 6/1
Northern Ireland have a chance of qualification for the Euros after victory over Bosnia on penalties; that's despite the fact they finished bottom of the Nations League group and Bosnia were top.
They showed great spirit in the second-half to battle back and eventually take the game to spot kicks, although they could have won it in 90 minutes, but they are expected to lose here as they travel to Norway.
This seems to be an issue with Northern Ireland in recent games, the second-half performances don't match those of the first. All four of Ian Baraclough's games in charge has had them losing at half-time. It's an issue that he is well aware of.
"First half, (we were) far too passive. Not aggressive enough to get in and about Austria," said Baraclough after the 1-0 defeat to Austria on Sunday.
"I felt they had too much of the play in the middle third. Second balls, we weren't aggressive enough to go and win those little tussles."
It's a problem that should get worse as they go to a Norway side with the prolific Erling Haaland leading the line. It was a 5-1 hammering when the two teams met in Belfast in September.
That game had Norway leading 3-1 at the break and there's a good chance that HT scoreline will be much smaller on Wednesday. Regardless, it will be an ask for this Northern Ireland defence to keep out a strong Norway attack.
Based on what we have seen from Northern Ireland under current management, the 6/5 available on Norway to be leading at the break looks very good value. It should be another defeat here; that won't matter if they secure qualification for the tournament when they play in November.
Score prediction: Norway 2-0 Northern Ireland (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)
Best bet: Norway to be leading at half-time at 6/5
Odds correct at 1230 BST (12/10/20)
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