Joe Townsend has a preview and best bets as England look to maintain their unbeaten start in the Nations League when they host Denmark.
Recommended bets
2pts England to beat Denmark and under 3.5 total goals at 6/4
1pt England to beat Denmark and under 2.5 total goals at 3/1
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
England v Denmark
- Wednesday 7.45pm BST kick-off on Sky Sports
- Match odds: Home 3/4 | Draw 13/5 | Away 10/3
How quickly things can change in football. With half-time imminent at Wembley on Sunday, England were being totally dominated by Belgium in their Nations League encounter and lucky to be only 1-0 down. That luck was not only because the Belgians were wasteful, but because Yannick Carrasco had a perfectly good opener ruled offside.
Then came the turning point: Jordan Henderson was awarded the softest of penalties and Marcus Rashford tucked it away.
To England's, and Gareth Southgate's, credit they were much-improved after the break, largely nullifying the world's number one team - more importantly they found a way to compete with a side who dominated them twice at the 2018 World Cup.
Maybe they'd earned their next moment of fortunate then, as Mason Mount's shot took a wicked deflection off Toby Alderweireld to loop over the helpless Simon Mignolet and into the net.
Undoubtedly this was England's most impressive result for a while, probably since racing into a 3-0 lead in Spain in the inaugural edition of this tournament two years ago. They ultimately held off a fightback to win 3-2 that night, and while victory was important, it was the performance that required further scrutiny.
There were glimpses worth getting excited about in Seville, as there were at Wembley on Sunday, but England's second-half struggles in Spain exposed weaknesses which the Netherlands laid bare in the Nations League semi-finals eight months later.
There are fewer cliches more over-used than the adage of a good team winning when not playing that well, and Southgate's side must be praised for pulling off a superb win over an excellent Belgium outfit.
But it was no seminal moment in their development.
England need to realise they got away with one, and address the first-half issues before next summer's Euros to avoid another Netherlands-style wake-up call.
Kane to return or DCL to deputise?
It's really tricky to guess how England will line up against Denmark on Wednesday, but they go into the match in a strong position as they now sit top of their Nations League group.
Last month's double-header saw Gareth Southgate make three changes between fixtures, two of them enforced with Kyle Walker suspended and Phil Foden sent home for breaching Covid-19 protocols.
Given the unprecedented congestion facing clubs this season surely it would make sense for the long-term health of the players that game-time was shared out? What's made matters worse is this being a rare three-fixture international window.
Only two players - Kieran Trippier and Dominic Calvert-Lewin - have started England's friendly with Wales and their Nations League victory over Belgium.
Although both were withdrawn after an hour against Wales, with Calvert-Lewin substituted at a similar point against Belgium, Southgate would be risking the wrath of their club bosses by starting them for a third time in seven days.
Captain Harry Kane is still rated as an injury doubt despite playing the final 25 minutes on Sunday, which makes Calvert-Lewin's likelihood of involvement much higher.
With Premier League leaders Everton facing archrivals Liverpool in a Merseyside derby at Saturday lunchtime, Carlo Ancelotti will be praying Kane is fit.
Tammy Abraham and Danny Ings are other alternatives to lead the line, but it feels far less likely to happen.
Betting preview
Belgium looked capable of carving through England at will during Sunday's first half; Denmark don't pose the same threat. In fact Romelu Lukaku's penalty was a rare goal scored against Gareth Southgate's side, who have a superb defensive record when not facing the world's best teams.
It ended a run of four straight clean sheets, but the Three Lions have still managed to keep six in their last nine fixtures. They are 6/4 to shut the Danes out, and did so when sharing a bore draw in Copenhagen last month.
Those odds are excellent considering the nature of England's performance on Sunday. Having struggling before the break, the second period was evidence of why Southgate returned to his trusty three-man backline - Belgium were snuffed out.
On the 14 occasions he has gone with three at the back, only three times have England's opponents scored more than once.
Although Denmark have found the net seven times without reply since the reverse fixture, it was against the Faroes Islands and Iceland. In contests with major nations their shooting boots tend to desert them.
That's almost as reliable as their overall defensive record. They have conceded one goal or fewer in 40 of their past 45 fixtures - ignoring the duo of matches when Denmark's professional footballers went on strike - and in 11 of their past 12.
England/under 2.5 goals at 3/1 is a smart play and a great price.
If in need of further evidence, 16 of Denmark's past 24 competitive fixtures have seen under 2.5 goals. Gibraltar (twice), Armenia and Georgia account for half the outliers, so a more accurate picture is 16 from 20.
The Three Lions must be full of confidence after two wins and with the Danes' 80% under 2.5 goals hit-rate, 3/1 is too good. You can take the safety net of adding on an extra goal and still get a sizeable 6/4, which also makes my staking plan.
England win to nil at 21/10 is tempting, but we're straddling that price with two under goals angles instead.
Elsewhere, Denmark are also remarkably consistent when it comes to corners. Only once in their past 12 matches has their been a single-figure corner count, and even then it was only one short against the Republic of Ireland.
England tend to be towards eight as a match total minimum. Their 6-0 walkover in Bulgaria last year fell well shy of that, but it's the only instance in the Three Lions' past seven fixtures.
Most corner markets aren't live yet, but it's worth a look around the over 10 mark if a healthy odds-against is out there.
Score prediction: England 2-0 Denmark (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Best bets:
England v Denmark Opta stats
- England have won 20 of their last 21 competitive home internationals (L1) with their only defeat in that run coming at Wembley against Spain in a Nations League game in September 2018.
- Denmark have lost just two of their last 39 international matches (W19 D18 – excluding non-FIFA friendlies) and have kept eight clean sheets in their last 10 games.
- England haven’t conceded a goal in open play in any of their last seven internationals and are on a run of 635 minutes since last conceding in open play against Czech Republic in October 2019.
- Denmark’s Christian Eriksen has been directly involved in 13 goals in his last 17 appearances for his national team (10 goals, 3 assists).
- Marcus Rashford has scored in his last four England appearances – he is the youngest player to do so since Jimmy Greaves in 1961, while Greaves is the only Three Lions player since the Second World War to score in five in a row under the age of 23.
Odds correct at 1400 BST 12/10/20
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