Liam Kelly previews West Ham's trip to face Watford at Vicarage Road, expecting yet more goals in the Premier League match-up.
Football betting tips: Premier League
1.5pts Over 3.5 Goals at 12/5 (Betfair Sportsbook, BetVictor)
Watford return to Premier League action after an extended period on the sidelines with player availability issues, playing for the first time since December 10th.
The Hornets face a West Ham side that are in a miserable moment, winning only one of their last seven league fixtures and dropping to sixth place as a result.
Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Tuesday
TV Channel: Amazon Prime Video
Watford 12/5 | Draw 5/2 | West Ham 11/10
The form of David Moyes' side makes the odds-against about West Ham to win at Vicarage Road a little too short, and the uncertainty around Watford given the tumultuous two weeks means they make no appeal either.
A bet in the goals market does look intriguing, though, with OVER 3.5 GOALS available to back at 12/5.
The Hammers' 3-2 defeat to Southampton on Boxing Day (xG: WHU 1.63 - 1.31 SOU) was indicative of the problems causing their poor form, missing key players in defence and relying on goals at the other end to give them a chance.
Michail Antonio's return obviously gives them a better chance of overcoming defensive issues, but an average of 1.72 expected goals against (xGA) per game in their last seven matches is a huge worry in this busy period.
Watford can be very threatening on a good day, too, recording xGF totals of 1.22, 2.92, 3.48 and 2.89 in their four wins this season — blessed with some impressive talent up top that will pose West Ham problems.
The same could be said at the opposite end.
As mentioned, West Ham are at full strength going forward, and Watford have struggled to limit chances all season long. Claudio Ranieri is understandably leaning into his teams strong point, leaving the defence exposed.
Watford are allowing an average of 1.84 xGA per game this term, conceding 31 goals in 16 games from those opportunities.
Over 3.5 goals has been reached in 44% of Watford's matches this season and seven of West Ham's 18 (39%), so it's not difficult to envisage this match-up producing goals.
Let's hope for another Premier League cracker to land the selection at a solid price.
Watford v West Ham best bets and score prediction
- 1.5pts Over 3.5 Goals at 12/5 (Betfair Sportsbook, BetVictor)
Score prediction: Watford 2-3 West Ham (Sky Bet odds: 20/1)
Odds correct at 1200 GMT (27/12/21)
More from Sporting Life
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.
