Tottenham travel to Southampton with Antonio Conte yet to lose a Premier League match as Spurs manager, and Jake Pearson thinks that run will be extended on the south coast.
Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt Tottenham to win at 11/10 (General)
Southampton arrived into their Boxing Day fixture away at West Ham having failed to win in their previous six Premier League matches, a run that included three defeats, but they got the better of David Moyes’ team in a five-goal thriller, moving them nine points clear of the relegation zone.
The Saints have been performing at a better rate than their results might suggest this season, with below average finishing partly to blame for their current league position.
Southampton have created chances equating to 24.2 expected goals for (xGF) this season, but have only found the back of the net on 19 occasions, the fourth-highest underperformance in the division this term.
Theoretically, the Saints should pick up in attack should they continue creating at this rate, but for all the attributes that Che Adams and Adam Armstrong bring to the table, finishing isn’t the strong suit of either, and up against a Tottenham defence that have conceded just three goals since Antonio Conte took charge – two of which were against Liverpool – Southampton will need to take whatever chances they might get in this match.
Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Tuesday
TV Channel: Amazon Prime Video
Southampton 13/5 | Draw 5/2 | Tottenham 1/1
Spurs are yet to lose in the league under Conte and are now just six points behind the Champions League places with three games in hand.
There are caveats to Tottenham’s results under their new manager, namely that only one of the sides they have faced currently reside in the top half of the table, but there is no doubting the Italian has already improved the team significantly.
Only Manchester City and Liverpool have picked up more points than Tottenham since Conte’s arrival, with only Wolves conceding fewer goals, but it has been going forward that the biggest change has come.
Spurs scored just nine goals across Nuno Espirito Santo’s ten matches in charge. Under Conte, Spurs have scored 12 in six, but more impressive than that is the numbers they are producing in terms of chance creation.
Under Nuno, Spurs’ highest expected goals for total in a single game was 1.92. In the six games Conte has been in charge, Spurs have gone under 2.0 xGF just once – his opening game as manager against Everton.
Against Liverpool they created chances equating to 2.87 xGF, just the second time this season a team has created more than 2.0 xGF against Jurgen Klopp’s side, and just the second time a team has won the ‘xG battle’ against the Reds – Man City and Chelsea both failed to do either.
The second caveat worth noting in terms of Conte’s impressive results as Spurs manager, is that all but one of his matches in charge have been at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium – the only away match he has overseen was the 0-0 draw at Everton.
It will be interesting to see if Tottenham can translate their striking home form to matches on the road. Although there is no real reason to believe they will not.
Given the small sample size of Spurs on the road under Conte, it is difficult to compare past prices, but one thing we can do is take their recent matches played at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, and remove the home advantage.
Generally speaking, home advantage is worth about 0.4 of a goal, which equates to 8% in probabilistic terms – +4% for the home team and -4% for the away team.
Spurs’ matches against Brentford and Crystal Palace look a good indicator for this fixture given both sides are currently on the same points as Southampton.
Against Brentford, Tottenham were 4/6 (60% chance of victory), so by removing the home advantage – remove 4% for not being at home and a further 4% to account for the fact they are away – and Spurs’ price to beat Brentford away should sit around the 10/11 mark (1.93 to be exact).
Against Palace on Boxing Day, Spurs were 7/10 (59% chance of victory), so by following the same process we arrive at a price of just shy of even money (1.97).
All of this points towards Spurs having a higher than 50% chance of winning this match, and that means 11/10 for a TOTTENHAM WIN is a price worth getting on side.
Southampton v Tottenham best bets and score prediction
- 1pt Tottenham to win at 11/10 (General)
Score prediction: Southampton 0-2 Tottenham (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)
Odds correct at 1115 GMT (27/12/21)
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