Four Premier League games kick off at 18:00 GMT on Tuesday, including Brighton v Arsenal and West Brom v Leeds. Joe Townsend has best bets for each.
Football betting tips: Tuesday's Premier League
2pts Both teams to score in Brighton v Arsenal at 13/15
1pt Brighton and Arsenal to draw at 13/5
1pt Burnley to beat Sheff Utd at 29/20
1pt Under 1.5 goals in Burnley v Sheff Utd at 9/5
1pt James Ward-Prowse to score from outside the area at 11/1
0.5pt James Ward-Prowse to score first and Southampton to win 2-1 at 80/1
1pt Under 2.5 goals in West Brom v Leeds at 6/4
1pt Karlan Grant to score first in West Brom v Leeds at 7/1
0.5pt Karlan Grant to score first and either West Brom to beat Leeds 1-0 or draw 1-1 at 28/1
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Brighton v Arsenal betting tips
- 18:00 GMT on Amazon Prime Video
- Match odds: Home 11/5 | Draw 23/10 | Away 5/4
Few saw Arsenal's Boxing Day demolition of Chelsea coming, but wow did they need it.
Mikel Arteta cut a mightily relieved figure as his side swept their London rivals aside to race 3-0 ahead by the hour mark. Tammy Abraham did grab a late consolation, and there was even time for Chelsea to be awarded a stoppage-time penalty.
Bernd Leno's save from Jorginho's tame effort merely boosted the feel-good factor already on show at Emirates Stadium.
Now the challenge for Arteta's young team is to put together a run of results that will enable them to quickly climb the table - starting at Brighton.
Graham Potter's side drew 2-2 at West Ham on Sunday, and it was a familiar tale. They rarely play badly, rarely deserve to lose, but rarely win.
It's not just anecdotal either. Infogol's table based on performance has Albion sitting an incredible 11 places higher than the 17th position they're currently in. On Expected Goals (xG) the Seagulls deserved to win five of their last eight matches, but in reality they have won once in 13.
No-one has drawn more than Brighton's 21 Premier League matches since the start of 2019/20.
That should be the least they're going for when Arsenal arrive at the Amex on Tuesday. Albion boast a superb recent record against the Gunners, winning both of last term's contests 2-1, sharing a pair of 1-1 draws the season prior, and winning on home soil - again 2-1 - late in 2018/19.
Victory for Arteta's men on Boxing Day has seen the outright value swing sharply in Brighton's favour, with the hosts around 9/4 across the board. Backing the home side on the double chance is a little too odds-on to be worth even a hefty stake, but the draw at 13/5 looks like a bet worth taking.
But both teams to score is available at close enough to evens to make me comfortable staking a decent amount.
On top of the sides' recent head-to-head record, six of Brighton's seven home league games have seen both teams find the net, while seven of Arsenal's past nine in all competitions have done so.
It feels like a smart play at generous odds.
Score prediction: Brighton 1-1 Arsenal (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)
Burnley v Sheffield United betting tips
- 18:00 GMT on Amazon Prime Video
- Match odds: Home 7/5 | Draw 21/10 | Away 21/10
Don't cancel your Tuesday night plans for this one.
To say Burnley and Sheffield United are usually involved in low-scoring games is something of an understatement, with just five of the Blades' last 58 matches seeing over 3.5 goals. Almost half (8) of Burnley's 17 games in all competitions this season have had one goal or fewer.
Sean Dyche won't care if people think his side are boring, as up until Sunday's 1-0 defeat at Leeds - a match they didn't deserve to lose and were denied a clear penalty (or goal) by terrible refereeing - they had been churning out results.
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Even with that disappointment, it's still just two losses in eight. It's a real surprise to see them at significantly odds-against for a meeting with the worst team in Premier League history, statistically speaking of course.
Sheffield United are now without a win in 19 matches, and sit bottom of the table with only two points. They are surely on their way back to the Sky Bet Championship after a two-season stay in the top flight.
This could be the evening that Chris Wilder's men end that barren run. After all, Burnley aren't a divisional big hitter by any stretch. But the value is in backing the home side to pile further misery on the South Yorkshire club.
Tagging on under 3.5 goals will nudge you up from 29/20 to 15/8, but I see no reason to take that risk for a marginal increase in returns.
What I do think is worth backing is under 1.5 goals at very similar odds. Even in their last two games, Sheffield United have come incredibly close to eking out a narrow victory.
Despite playing the majority of the match with 10 men, they led 1-0 at Brighton but conceded a late equaliser. The Blades then battled hard before succumbing to a Gylfi Sigurdsson winner in the final 10 minutes at home to Everton on Boxing Day, with the Toffees pinching it 1-0.
Under 1.5 goals covers us for the backs-to-wall away win and goalless draw. More importantly, I think Burnley will win, scoring the only goal.
Score prediction: Burnley 1-0 Sheffield United (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Southampton v West Ham betting tips
- 18:00 GMT on Amazon Prime Video
- Match odds: Home 11/10 | Draw 5/2 | Away 23/10
Southampton have hit a very minor bump in the road. Two wins in their last seven, and three games without victory has slightly disrupted the momentum of what has been a fantastic opening half to the season.
But stats can also be misleading, as Ralph Hasenhuttl's side have lost just once in five Premier League matches. He will hardly be worried.
What may concern him slightly is that his team's creativity does seem to have waned, as only three times in their last 10 outings have Saints posted Expected Goals (xG) numbers of more than 1.0.
The absence of Danny Ings has undoubtedly played a role in that, but again in the quest for statistical balance, Southampton score so many goals from set-pieces that they rarely need to carve out numerous opportunities.
Both they and West Ham have been ruthless from dead-ball situations, scoring a league high eight goals from set-plays. Neither has conceded many from those scenarios though, so backing a big-priced defender to score is probably one to leave alone.
That's especially the case for Saints, as three-goal central defender Jannik Vestergaard will be missing through injury for several weeks.
West Ham, like Southampton, drew last time out. Unlike the home side though, who left Fulham with a goalless draw, they were lucky their game against Brighton ended 2-2.
David Moyes' team have been poor for a few weeks now, struggling to adapt to the loss of Arthur Masuaku and the need to revert to 4-2-3-1 after so much success with a back three.
Since back-to-back 1-0 wins over Fulham and Sheffield United, they have gone six games without a clean sheet.
I like the home side for victory in this one, but in the outright there isn't enough value for my liking. Instead, I'm getting a little creative.
There are a couple of stunning prices that stick out, both involving Saints captain James Ward-Prowse.
Having already netted three goals from outside the box, he is 11/1 with Sky Bet to do so on Tuesday night. But that is small fry compared to this Hollywood small stakes punt.
Ward-Prowse to score first and Southampton to win 2-1 is a huge 80/1 and given Southampton's reliance on their talismanic skipper, who is designated penalty-taker while Ings is out inured, that is impossible to turn down.
Saints' last home outing saw Manchester City win 1-0 - the first time Hasenhuttl's men have failed to score at least twice at St Mary's this season.
Score prediction: Southampton 2-1 West Ham (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Southampton v West Ham best bets
James Ward-Prowse to score from outside the area at 11/1
James Ward-Prowse to score first and Southampton to win 2-1 at 80/1
West Brom v Leeds betting tips
- 18:00 GMT on Amazon Prime Video
- Match odds: Home 13/5 | Draw 11/4 | Away 13/20
Could West Brom's draw at Anfield on Sunday have been any more 'Big Sam' if it tried? Only if Albion had pinched it 1-0.
Liverpool battered the Baggies in as one-sided an opening half as you're likely to see in this season's Premier League, but in true Sam Allardyce fashion the visitors dug in to trail by a single goal at the break. After half-time it was a different story.
As belief grew, so did West Brom's willingness to attack. They thoroughly deserved to leave Merseyside with a point, maintaining their new manager's incredible recent record at one of English football's most fearsome home grounds; he has collected more points at Anfield since 2017 than the rest of the 'Big Six' clubs combined.
Albion are a long way from survival, but only a fool would bet against Allardyce closing the five-point gap to safety.
The visit of Leeds United has a very similar feel to it, with West Brom almost certain to set up to frustrate Marcelo Bielsa's free-flowing team.
But Leeds showed a different, and altogether surprising, side to their game at the weekend as they battled to a 1-0 home win over Burnley. Neither side could have wished for a better dress rehearsal ahead of Tuesday night's encounter at The Hawthorns.
The involvement of Bielsa's often carefree side means under 2.5 goals is a mighty 6/4. Not many West Brom games will see three or more goals for the remainder of 2020/21 now that Allardyce is at the helm. What may surprise is you is that despite a well-earned reputation for goal-fests, seven of Leeds' 17 games in all competitions this season have involved under 2.5 goals.
Throw in a newfound willingness to scrap for points and 6/4 is excellent value.
Gun to the head I think the home side carry enough momentum in to this game and pinch it, but one performance isn't enough for me to back a team who have won only once all season. Unders is the smarter play.
In a very similar fashion to Sunday evening, I'm expecting the home side to get plenty of joy down the channels on the counter. West Brom's front two proved to be a constant problem for a Liverpool defence intent on keeping a high line.
Leeds will be no different, which is why I like the 7/1 price on Karlan Grant as first goalscorer in a game of few goals.
Signed for £15m from Huddersfield in the summer, Grant hasn't hit his straps quite yet, netting only once in the Premier League. But he really ought to have levelled the scores at Anfield when he outpaced Rhys Williams having been played in behind.
In an Albion team that has struggled to provide much meaningful service, Grant has still managed 15 shots in 11 appearances. Only once has he failed to register an attempt in a game - when the Baggies played more than 45 minutes with 10 men against Aston Villa.
He is perfect for Allardyce's disciplined, counter-attacking 4-4-2 and I expect him to quickly improve under the former England boss; 7/1 looks good.
Although the outright is one I'm not happy to back, I do think this Price Boost is worth a small stakes punt given it falls directly into my thinking. Grant to score first and either West Brom to win 1-0 or Draw 1-1 is 28/1 with Sky Bet.
It would be foolish to ignore.
Score prediction: West Brom 1-0 Leeds (Sky Bet odds: 12/1)
West Brom v Leeds best bets
Karlan Grant to score first at 7/1
Karlan Grant to score first and either West Brom to win 1-0 or draw 1-1 at 28/1
Odds correct at 16:00 GMT 27/12/20
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