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Free football betting tips: FA Cup outright preview with winner and best bets
The third round of the FA Cup sees clubs from the top two divisions join and Tom Carnduff picks out two potential winners at big prices.
Football betting tips: FA Cup outright winner
1pt e.w. Everton to win the FA Cup at 22/1
1pt e.w. Southampton to win the FA Cup at 33/1
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
The start of a new year is always FA Cup third round territory, a significant stage of the competition where teams from the Premier League and the Sky Bet Championship join and begin their path to success at Wembley. Once we get there in the spring, it's usually a big-hitter lifting the trophy, but recent history demonstrates the fact that others in the top-flight can make their presence felt.
Arsenal beat Chelsea in a very delayed August final, although the current holders may be focusing more on retaining their Premier League status rather than the trophy in the cabinet. The last ten seasons have seen some from 'the rest' make it to the national stadium: Watford, Crystal Palace, Aston Villa, Hull, Wigan and Stoke have all been in the final.
That helps highlight some great value options in the outright market as 44 teams at the top-end of English football enter the fray. Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Manchester United, Manchester City and Tottenham are all lower than 9/1 with Sky Bet and it's of course likely we'll see at least one of them in the final, but the prospect of a wide-open title race and the depth of the Premier League means we should be searching just beyond them for value.
Even with the usual suspects being the last four in last season's competition, the quarter-finals saw Leicester, Newcastle, Norwich and Sheffield United all making an appearance; Brighton, Watford and Wolves were three of the last-four the season before.
The quarter-finals in 2017/18 saw Brighton, Leicester, Southampton, Swansea and Wigan join a couple of the 'big-six' and it's clear that there is scope for several surprise contenders at that stage, and potentially beyond.
And, of course, the nature of the competition makes it impossible to predict a path to the final. You can be extremely lucky and get the 'easiest' possible outcome in every round, the flip side is that you end up constantly against the bigger and better sides. We haven't necessarily seen that in the third round this season, but it's an inevitable aspect as the tournament progresses.
There are a couple of prices that just don't look appealing enough. The 7/1 on Liverpool is looking to find a balance between the obvious talent within this squad but the disinterest Jurgen Klopp has in this competition. If he put a full strength side out every round, would they win it? Quite possibly. Will he put a full strength side out in every round? That's very, very unlikely.
You're not going to get a much better price on Liverpool for the squad selection reason alone. It's too much of a risk to offer more in case we're all shocked by a Sadio Mane/Roberto Firmino/Mohamed Salah front line sitting in front of a first choice midfield, but that just won't happen if recent seasons have taught us anything.
The furthest stage Liverpool have reached in the five years of Klopp is the fifth round in 2019/20. That was a run ended by Chelsea at Stamford Bridge; Liverpool still went for a changed side with fringe first-team players despite it being a trip to a tough opponent.
It is 8/1 that Arsenal retain their title, as big as 11/1 elsewhere, which makes no appeal based on their shocking performances so far. They historically do very well in the FA Cup but you just can't justify backing them based on results and the showings that have gone alongside them. It's not an exaggeration to suggest that Mikel Arteta already has other priorities with a top-half place suddenly in some doubt.
While Liverpool may hold little interest in winning this trophy, that may not be the case for the blue side of the city and Carlo Ancelotti's EVERTON have the potential to go far, making them the standout bet at 22/1.
The Toffees finally appear to have the direction that has been absent despite years of significant investment. Buying players for big price tags has demonstrated their ambition to some extent, but they lacked the conductor to their loosely-constructed orchestra. That has changed with Ancelotti's arrival, and despite a recent dip they've impressed in various ways; enough to merit support.
Consistency is an issue but that should come with time. With managerial appointments having such a short shelf life now it's easy to forget that this is Ancelotti's first full season at the club. The half-season allowed him to implement his style while the transfer window offered an opportunity to overhaul the midfield and bring creativity in the form of James Rodriguez.
The concern when it comes to backing clubs like this in the FA Cup is not so much the price but the team selection. You can make a case for a few Premier League teams having the potential for Cup success but the focus for them often remains on the league. Despite Ancelotti's few appearances as Everton boss in knockout football, the XI players involved from the start suggests he wants to win something.
What gives me hope in strong Everton team selection is the side they went for in the Carabao Cup, which at the time of writing, they are still involved in. Against Fleetwood, opposition from Sky Bet League One, Ancelotti had Dominic Calvert-Lewin and Richarlison in his starting XI.
The next round saw them come up against a fellow Premier League side in West Ham, and with tougher opposition, Ancelotti selected a stronger side. Calvert-Lewin and Richarlison were involved again, alongside Jordan Pickford, Michael Keane, Lucas Digne, Allan, Gylfi Sigurdsson and James.
This Carabao Cup attitude should be reflected in the FA Cup; they could even go stronger considering the status of the two competitions and the preference by many for success in this one. If so, Everton will involve first team players in some capacity regardless of the opponent and potentially go full strength if they come up against a Premier League big hitter.
Ancelotti's also got a few domestic cup wins on his CV, and his failure to lift a knockout tournament trophy in recent times is largely down to the luck of the draw. Bayern were beaten by Borussia Dortmund at the semi-final stage in 2016 while Napoli were dumped out by Milan in 2018/19. He won the Copa del Rey with Real Madrid in 2013/14. The following season, they met Atletico Madrid at the round of 16 stage and lost over two legs.
There is very little he or his clubs could do about that and, of course, we can't control the draw in terms of who Everton will face. They could well come up against Manchester City in the fourth round and that's just the unfortunate nature of it. However, we can be fairly confident they will select strong sides if those types of contests arise and they have a decent enough tie in Rotherham at home to kick things off.
The FA Cup is a serious target for Everton this season when it comes to silverware and it's not beyond them.
Elsewhere, in the hunt for some decent each-way value, SOUTHAMPTON look a really decent bet at 33/1 across the board. Ralph Hasenhuttl's side have enjoyed a great start to the Premier League campaign and find themselves battling among the early leaders in the top-four - it's surely safe to assume they won't be mired in a relegation battle which might distract them from this.
This Saints team carries an element of excitement about it, pressing out of possession and a desire to attack when in it. Even with their good start, it's likely they'll wind up somewhere between seventh and 10th in the Premier League at the end of the campaign and that opens up the opportunity for success in this competition.
Southampton begin their FA Cup adventure with a home tie against League One side Shrewsbury, and we shouldn't be overly surprised to see changes made there. However, like Everton, we could see a stronger team presence if and when they come up against those currently around them in the standings.
We saw it last season, with Hasenhuttl making some changes for their third round tie against Huddersfield. That turned out to be a comfortable 2-0 win but an unlucky draw put them up against Tottenham. While they took it to a replay, they lost out in a 3-2 thriller in North London.
The team selection here gives me confidence that they can progress far in the FA Cup this season. For both games against Spurs, apart from a goalkeeper change, Hasenhuttl went with a team that very closely resembled a starting league XI. The big hitters were involved and they came close to making it to the fifth round.
There is also the fact that Southampton are a better team now than they were 12 months ago; something that is considerably impressive after losing Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg to Tottenham in the transfer window. They have adjusted and the central midfield duo of Oriel Romeu and James Ward-Prowse look comfortable - the latter providing a serious threat from dead-ball situations.
They aren't necessarily a set-piece team but their high number of goals from these situations is a big positive and also gives them a route to goal if they are chasing a game, something that could prove valuable in a knockout situation. Then there is the increasingly prolific partnership of Danny Ings and Che Adams; an understanding that has developed between the two which has proved crucial for an attack-minded team.
Southampton last made an appearance in the final in 2003, narrowly losing 1-0 to Arsenal, and the closest they have come to repeating that is the semi-final defeat to Chelsea in 2018. This team looks to be the one that could well take them all the way if the draw is kind enough.
On Hasenhuttl, it's difficult to really form an opinion of his attitude towards domestic cups in his previous roles. RB Leipzig were a newly-promoted side in 2016/17 but finished second in the league. The following season they were competing in the Champions League. Both campaigns saw early exits in the DFB Pokal; although it was on penalties to Bayern in 2017.
That team selection for the two games against Tottenham suggests a potential desire to do well in the FA Cup though, and their showings so far demonstrate that they can win games if they field a strong team when required. We've seen teams upset the odds by reaching the final in recent seasons, and Southampton are well equipped to continue that trend in 2021.
Odds correct at 0800 GMT (21/12/20)
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