Manchester United and Manchester City, separated by just a single point, both have a game in hand that could take them to within touching distance of the top of the Premier League. On paper, Ole Gunnar Solskjaer and Pep Guardiola are doing OK.
But the league table is lying. Both City and United are badly underperforming - shadows of their best selves and, though taking very different approaches, suffering from a passivity and general clumsiness that suggests their tactical plans are in disarray.
Forget how bunched the top end of the table has become, United and City have won a combined 39 points from 20 games. That is nowhere near good enough.
Unsurprisingly, there is a lot riding on the first Manchester derby of the season. Guardiola’s new contract means he will be given time to rebuild, limiting the impact of Saturday’s game to this season alone, whereas Solskjaer is very much fighting for his job.
And yet Solskjaer’s team seem the more likely to win. Man Utd have won three of their last four meetings with Man City as the Norwegian’s typical big-game approach – sit back, absorb pressure, and counter – has caught City out.
There is every chance that will happen again this weekend, unless City can snap out of it; can up the tempo after a weary 2020.
How Solskjaer has bested Guardiola in the past
For the 2-0 win in March, United used a 3-4-1-2 against City, the same system that saw them fall flat against RB Leipzig (more on that later) but a formation that generally neutralises Guardiola’s attacks.
Solskjaer’s side retreated into their own half, conceding as much as 70% possession to the opposition, with the back five and midfield three compressing space between the lines and shuffling from side to side – minimising space in behind or in front of the defence.
This meant Kevin de Bruyne was either crowded out altogether or forced into harmless wide areas, while the City midfield was reduced to tame, sideways passing. Fred and Scott McTominay played particularly crucial roles in man-marking the City midfielders Rodri and Ilkay Gundogan, preventing them from making purposeful forward passes.
Without the ability to create quick triangles City were sluggish, which in turn made them vulnerable to getting caught on the counter. United’s front two of Anthony Martial and Daniel James split wide, making frequent runs in the hope of catching City’s high line as Bruno Fernandes attempted longer balls forward.
It was a pure, and simple, counter-attacking approach, mimicking how they succeeded in a 2-1 win in the reverse fixture last December, although on that occasion Solskjaer deployed a 4-2-3-1.
It is highly likely the United manager will stick with a 3-4-1-2, despite the issues in midweek, because this will help them double up on Riyad Mahrez out wide while keeping enough bodies up for those breaks.
Man Utd v Man City: Betting tips
- 17:30 GMT on Sky Sports Premier League
- Match odds: Home 16/5 | Draw 29/10 | Away 3/4
Tom Carnduff
Manchester United have only been winning at half-time in one of their last six games across all competitions, that being an expected win at home to Istanbul Basaksehir. They keep making slow starts and as better teams have shown, they can punish that. With that in mind, the 7/5 best price available on City to be winning at half-time looks really good value.
United keep making poor starts and they are showing no signs of that coming to an end. It may not be a completely open and free-scoring game, but City can certainly start the better of the two sides.
Even with City winning at the break, we shouldn't be overly surprised to see if United find a way to get back into the contest and potentially win it. It totally depends on what United team turns up, it's almost a mystery at this point, but poor first-half performances remain the one rare consistency at the moment.
Score prediction: Manchester United 1-1 Manchester City (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
Best bet: Manchester City to be winning at half-time at 7/5
Click to read Tom Carnduff's preview in full
How Man City can capitalise on Leipzig loss
The biggest concern for Man City fans is that their team are looking even more passive – even more susceptible to being strangled by a low block – than they were last season.
Perhaps fatigue has taken its toll, because at the moment Guardiola seems incapable of inspiring a high press, which means the whole system falls apart, for three main reasons: his players are unable to win the ball in the opposition half and counter-press into space; their possession is stale and sideways, making it easy for a deep defence to nullify; and, when the opposition makes a tackle, they have room to get their head up and pick a long pass over the top of City’s high back line.
However, United are just as tentative, and for the most part play without shape, purpose, or direction. Solskjaer simply does not have the tactical ability to coach the team properly, which is why they so often fall flat in the first half of matches – most notably in each of their last three, against RB Leipzig, West Ham, and Southampton.
The Leipzig game was yet another example of why Solskjaer just isn’t up the job. United looked meek, easily overrun and outwitted by a more astute outfit who raced out of the blocks and seized the initiative in the face of United’s hesitancy. Man City have the ability – and, historically, the coaching – to do just that, pressing high and hard to swarm the visitors on Saturday.
This is Man City’s route to ending a poor record against their rivals: play with enough energy, and it is relatively easy to outfight and outthink Man Utd.
The key battles at Old Trafford
For United, their most likely route to goal is through Marcus Rashford on the left hand side of a front two. With Anthony Martial out injured, it will be up to Rashford to pull wide and get the run on Kyle Walker, whom Guardiola will likely instruct to hold back and form a back three.
Their foot race will be an important one, although United’s threat depends primarily on whether Bruno Fernandes is given space centrally to pick Rashford out. Fernandes, with seven goals and four assists in the league, is clearly the fulcrum of United’s attacks; keep an eye on whether Rodri and Gundogan can get tight to the Portugal international after a spell of City possession ends.
At the other end, the key battleground is on City’s right where Riyad Mahrez will hope for support from Kevin de Bruyne. Bruno Williams and Luke Shaw is a defensive partnership open to being pulled out of shape, and so the interactions between Mahrez and De Bruyne – with occasional, well-timed overlaps from Walker – could do significant damage.
Then again, with both teams in poor form, struggling for fluency or tactical cohesion of late, it is just as likely that there won’t be any goals. Expect a cautious battle between two managers relatively happy with a point. United will be very defensive, while City have improved significantly at the back since Ruben Dias’s arrival.
Odds correct at 1200 GMT (10/12/20)
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