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Ole Gunnar Solskjaer's Manchester United: Tactical analysis and home and away records under the microscope
Manchester United are on the best run of form in their history. United also made their worst start since the days when relegation started to beckon.
It seems contradictory, but the two Uniteds – the away and home versions – have lent themselves to different conclusions. United’s record of nine straight league victories on their travels is their finest ever; not even Sir Alex Ferguson did that, while no one had previously won five in a row on the road after trailing.
At Old Trafford, however, the return of a solitary point from their opening four matches, before beating West Bromwich Albion, was their poorest since they began the 1971-72 season in similarly uninspired fashion. The flagship result of their league campaign, in the wrong respect, is the 6-1 defeat to Tottenham, only the second time since 1930 they have shipped six at home. It has shaped perceptions; so, too, a league table that has seen them 16th, 15th and 14th.
Yet, before this weekend’s games, United find themselves sixth, five points off the lead, with a game in hand and ahead of Manchester City. They have more points after 10 games than in the title-winning campaign of 1992-93 and as many as in 1996-97 and 2002-03. Their Champions League exit tells a different story, but their points tally in England does not suggest a club in crisis.
Perhaps, instead, United are half a crisis club, equipped with the best away record and the fourth worst at home. No one has scored more on the road, but only Burnley and Sheffield United have fewer goals on their own turf. It is evident where the scope for improvement comes.
United’s defensive statistics may be distorted by that 6-1 defeat, when they were reduced to 10 men for over an hour, but the difference in their attacking efforts suggest the results are no fluke. Apart from in the win over West Brom, where they posted an xG of 2.43, United’s highest xG at home this season is 1.10; their lowest away is 1.60. They have underperformed in front of goal at Old Trafford, with three goals from an xG of 5.44. Take away spot kicks and United’s non-penalty xG at home is the second lowest. The lone goal in open play is the lowest.
There is a marked difference in finishing: United have been clinical away – 16 goals from an xG of 9.65 gives them the best xG difference on the road while they have the fourth worst at home. Marcus Rashford (0.78) is the greatest offender at home, where two of their three goals are Bruno Fernandes penalties. However, the bigger issue is the lack of clear-cut chances; take away those penalties and United only had two efforts with an xG of over 0.13 in the first four games: Donny van de Beek’s goal and Mason Greenwood’s miss against Crystal Palace.
In contrast, excluding penalties, United have had 16 efforts with an xG of 0.14 or above on the road. They create better opportunities there. It ties into a familiar criticism of Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s management: that his teams struggle to break down sides intent on defence, and they are likelier to face those in Manchester. United are brighter on the break and have four goals, more than anyone else, on the counter-attack this season, but none were at Old Trafford.
Away from home, 61 percent of their shots come from within the 18-yard box; at home, that dips to 51 percent as, confronted with packed defences, they are reduced to taking more optimistic efforts. Only Burnley (56 percent) have had a higher share of long-range shots at home. The corollary is that the four games where United had the highest percentage of their shots on target were all away; so, too, the three matches where they delivered most key passes.
At home, United spend 32 percent of their time in the opposition’s third; away, it drops to 27 percent. But when they are encountering fewer opponents in that final third, on the counter-attack, it brings better chances. Remove the 6-1 defeat to Spurs and the two games where United had fewest touches of the ball in the opponent’s box were the away wins at Brighton and West Ham.
Take out the 6-1 defeat, where the possession statistics were distorted by Martial’s early departure, and United have won the three games where they had the lowest share of the ball, at Everton, Brighton and Southampton, and lost where they had the highest, against Palace.
Last season, United were beaten at home to Palace and Burnley with 71 and 72 percent of possession respectively and won away at Manchester City with 28 percent. Since then, trends have become more entrenched and exaggerated. Last year, United had the joint highest percentage of shots at home from outside the box, at 41. Now that has gone up.
The early-season fixture list may partly account for their issues; three of last season’s top eight have already visited Old Trafford with a fourth, Manchester City, to come on Saturday. Yet that may suit United: they beat City at home last season with 27 percent of possession. It was a home game that they could play as if it was an away match.