Mark O'Haire previews the Super Sunday clash between Manchester United and Tottenham and feels the value lies in backing it to be a tight encounter.
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Manchester United v Tottenham
- 1630 BST kick-off on Sky Sports
- Match Odds: Home 10/11 | Draw 13/5 | Away 14/5
Manchester United are odds-on favourites to beat Tottenham at Old Trafford for the first time since 2015 despite the Red Devils’ less than impressive start to the new Premier League season. Ole Gunnar Solskjær’s group were well-fancied to dispatch both Crystal Palace and Brighton but failed to fire in either encounter despite overcoming the latter.
Across those opening contests, United were beaten in the shots on-target count, as well as the Expected Goals (xG) battle, with Brighton hitting the woodwork on five occasions. It speaks to the shambolic nature of United's defeat by Palace that such a chaotic and fortunate success against Albion was seen as a step forward for Solskjaer's side.
The Red Devils’ ropey-looking defence again came in for criticism, failing to protect a 2-1 lead and the midfield lacked the cohesion and fluidity that saw Man Utd raise expectations from January onwards. Neither Bruno Fernandes nor Paul Pogba have appeared fully fit and perhaps the extended 2019/20 campaign, plus a limited pre-season has impacted the side.
Curiously, home teams saw a slight rise in victories post-lockdown in the Premier League last term but the tables have turned during the first three matchdays of the latest renewal; home sides have earned just 32% of the triumphs with the behind closed doors aspect potentially reducing the impact of home field advantage.
Premier League Sunday tips
With that in mind, I just can’t be backing the hosts at quotes shorter than evens, especially so considering United were an 8/5 shot in this fixture in front of a full Old Trafford crowd last December. That’s a significant shift in price that I don’t believe is warranted, and that’s despite taking Tottenham’s heavy recent schedule into consideration.
Spurs head north on the back of playing Newcastle, Chelsea and Maccabi Haifa in the space of seven days. Jose Mourinho has rotated his cast reasonably well and the North Londoners have benefitted from those three fixtures all taking place in the capital, minimising travel and disruption. Nevertheless, the absence of Son Heung-min is a blow for the visitors.
With possible heavy legs in the away dressing room, plus the fact the high-stakes nature of the showdown, Mourinho may opt to contain and counter rather than taking a proactive approach. The Portuguese pragmatist is renowned for his safety-first preferences, although Tottenham’s return of just two shutouts in 27 Premier League road trips alarms.
Spurs have suffered defeat in six of their last seven trips to Old Trafford and aren’t anticipated to be in peak physical condition, whereas Man Utd have completely unconvinced and are offered at unappealing odds, pointing me towards a rare punt on the draw at 5/2, whilst Both Teams To Score has potential despite its skinny offering of 4/6.
Elsewhere, limelight-hogger Anthony Taylor has been given the whistle for this. Super Sunday showdown. The 41-year-old official has already awarded six penalties across his three matches this term, this after pointing to the spot on 18 occasions in his 45 outings in 2019/20 across all competitions. Following the spurt in spot-kicks this season, eager punters can back a repeat at 13/8.
Prediction: Manchester United 1-1 Tottenham (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
Best Bet: Draw at 5/2
Odds correct as of 0930 BST on 2/10/20
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