Premier League free betting tips: Best bets, latest odds, preview, kick-off & TV times for Sunday October 4

Recommended bets

1pt Harvey Barnes to have 2+ shots on target in Leicester v West Ham at 7/5

1pt Callum Robinson 1+ offsides in Southampton v West Brom at 6/5

1pt Matty Cash to make 5+ tackles in Aston Villa v Liverpool at 11/2

1pt Arsenal -1 goal handicap v Sheffield United at 17/10

1pt Willy Boly to score anytime in Wolves v Fulham at 10/1

For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record

Leicester v West Ham

• 12pm BST kick-off on BT Sport 1
• Match odds: Home 4/6 | Draw 3/1 | Away 19/5

Leicester's stunning 5-2 win at Manchester City continued their perfect start to the season, one which has been something of a goal-frenzy. A 3-0 win at West Brom was followed by a 4-2 victory over Burnley, before the fireworks at The Etihad.

If they can take care of West Ham they really couldn't have asked for much more in the first, very small, section of a heavily congested campaign, with an international break now upon us. But in the Hammers they face a true Jekyll and Hyde team.

Defeat at home against a poor Newcastle on opening day saw the knives out early for David Moyes, but his team responded well. Two hefty Carabao Cup wins over lower-league opponents sandwiched an unjust late defeat at Arsenal, and few saw their 4-0 thrashing of Wolves coming last weekend; Mr Hyde is never far behind.

They were thumped 4-1 by Everton in the cup on Wednesday and it's that kind of inconsistency that has made bookies edgy with their prices, offering little more than evens on West Ham with a +1 goal handicap, and 6/4 for Leicester to overcome the -1.

Despite the Foxes' superb start, I feel the same way. The Hammers make me feel a little uncomfortable, especially because they have not played all that badly in any of their three league games.

It's that that, along with the advice from Paul Higham in this week's Premier League: Punting Pointers, that has me looking towards the shots market instead, and Harvey Barnes.

No player has had more than his seven shots on target in the top flight this season, with the Leicester winger managing at least two in each of his three appearances - Barnes is 7/5 to test the keeper at least twice for a fourth consecutive match, and it feels like a smart play.

Only four players have had more than Barnes' 12 total shots, and against West Brom and Burnley, when Leicester played the front-foot football they're renowned for under Brendan Rodgers, he pulled the trigger five times.

With a return to that style certain after a successful counter-punching display against Man City, 4/1 for Barnes to have five shots again is very tempting to small stakes. Barnes to have 3+ total shots at 15/8 would give a little more breathing space.

Last weekend Tomas Soucek rewarded us with a 2+ total shots tip at 21/10, but the bookies have got wise after the West Ham midfielder's five attempts on goal in their win over Wolves.

To get value from him we'd have to nudge up to 3+ total shots at 7/2. Don't be tempted by the 11/2 price for 2+ shots on target despite it paying out against Arsenal last week, as he has failed to test the keeper with his other eight attempts this season.

No goal means Soucek's drifted to 9/2 as an anytime scorer, which is a smart bet if you're inclined to play that market.

Score prediction: Leicester 3-1 West Ham (Sky Bet odds: 11/1)

Best bet: Harvey Barnes to have 2+ shots on target at 7/5

Southampton v West Brom

• 12pm BST kick-off on BT Sport 2
• Match odds: Home 8/11 | Draw 14/5 | Away 18/5

Southampton and West Brom both got off the mark last time out, with Saints winning 1-0 at Burnley and Albion relinquishing a 3-0 half-time lead to draw 3-3 with Chelsea. Both should take plenty of confidence from those performances.

West Brom are an 11/10 Double Chance which is tempting given Southampton's struggles at home, and the Baggies' gradual improvement in the first month of the campaign.

Only bottom club Norwich collected fewer points on their own patch than Ralph Hasenhuttl's side in last season's Premier League, and they have lost to Brentford in the Carabao Cup and Tottenham in the league so far this term.

Baggies fans should be encouraged despite their team's second-half capitulation against Chelsea as the general performance marked a continued upturn following their naive, limp defeat by Leicester on the opening day.

A 3-0 win over Harrogate in the cup for the second string was followed by a 5-2 loss at Everton that on the face of it looked like a 5-2 thrashing; it wasn't. Slaven Bilic's team led 1-0 and even equalised after Kieran Gibbs first-half red card before running out of steam. Defeat on penalties against Brentford in the Carabao Cup will have been frustrating having led 2-0, but they are getting there. A win really feels like it's round the corner - and it should've come against Chelsea.

I do see all three outcomes being firmly in play here, and a lack of value is what moves me away from backing West Brom on the Double Chance. For a better price, I much prefer staking my money on Callum Robinson.

The Baggies striker scored twice against Chelsea, but that's not what interests me - his runs in behind do. The way that game was played meant Robinson didn't attract the linesman's flag, but he was caught offside three times in Albion's opening two matches against opponents who favour a high defensive line; Southampton are another such side.

Saints have caught an opponent offside 15 times in their opening four fixtures in all competitions, with their last home game against Spurs seeing the flag raised on six occasions. Robinson 1+ offsides at 6/5 looks a good bet, and 2+ offsides at 11/2 looks like a mammoth price.

Score prediction: Southampton 1-1 West Brom (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)

Best bet: Callum Robinson 1+ offsides at 6/5

Arsenal v Sheffield United

• 2pm BST kick-off on Sky Sports
• Match odds: Home 11/20 | Draw 3/1 | Away 5/1

Sheffield United haven't scored yet this season and have lost all three of their league games. Stretching back to last term, it's now six straight defeats with just one goal scored during that time. While they did show encouraging signs in their most recent loss to Leeds, who scored an 88th-minute winner, Chris Wilder's men were outplayed for the majority of the match.

It was more by luck than anything else that spells at the start of each half, especially the first, did not see Leeds score. The Blades were chasing around struggling to get to the pace of the game. When they could dictate it for portions of the contest, they looked good, but they're unlikely to get many chances to do that against Arsenal.

Wilder though, prides himself on building teams who won't go down without a fight. Back-to-back 3-0 defeats at the end of June will have hurt because they're the only occasions in Sheffield United's past 94 fixtures that they lost by more than two goals. I don't see them rolling over at The Emirates and if they do, it could be time for alarm bells to start ringing.

While an optimistic Gunners supporter might anticipate a hefty win, and take on the Arsenal -2 handicap and the juicy 9/2 that's on offer, I prefer Arsenal -1 at 17/10. The visitors might be gallant, but I don't see them testing Mikel Arteta's side.

One I'm going to bob down because I'll be backing it myself on value alone, but can't justify including in the final staking plan considering the Blades' one goal in six league games, is a Sheffield United anytime goalscorer punt.

John Egan is available at 20/1 despite being arguably their biggest set-piece threat - he scored twice in their final six games last season. Whether he plays is another thing, given Ethan Ampadu's strong performance last weekend while he was banned.

Another defender who caught my eye is Chris Basham at a massive 25/1. He would've netted against Villa had he not been brought down in the box when bearing down on goal, having run the length of the pitch. With the Blades' struggles in front of goal, a set-piece seems the most likely avenue to break their duck.

Score prediction: Arsenal 2-0 Sheffield United (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)

Best bet: Arsenal -1 goal handicap at 17/10

Wolves v Fulham

• 2pm BST kick-off on Sky Sports
• Match odds: Home 1/2 | Draw 3/1 | Away 6/1

It's really not looking good for Fulham is it. Three games, three defeats but perhaps most concerning of all 10 goals conceded.

Wolves haven't exactly started the season well themselves after an electric opening five minutes that saw them lead 2-0 at Sheffield United. They closed that game out, but have lost 3-1 at home to Man City and 4-0 at West Ham since, as well as being knocked out of the Carabao Cup by Sky Bet Championship side Stoke.

My instinct is to look at the Wolves/under 2.5 goals at 9/4, but the goals that have been scored in the top flight this season and the Fulham's inability to keep the ball out of their own net put me off. I do think Nuno's team will win though, and the 1/2 price across the board reflects that most people agree with me.

Their opponents have been defensively shambolic all over the pitch in their opening three games, but Fulham's inability to defend set-pieces has been marked. Tyrone Mings was a winning 11/4 tip on Monday for simply having one shot, and those who backed him to score at 13/1 was richly rewarded. The Villa centre-back came close to a second goal too.

The Cottagers have now conceded from a set-play in all three of their fixtures, so it's no surprise to see Romain Saiss, who netted on opening weekend, cut to 15/2 to score anytime. If we're backing a Wolves defender then the value is with Willy Boly at 10/1, whose price reflects his lack of a Premier League goal - he scored only one in all competitions - in 2019/20.

It was quiet campaign on that for the Frenchman, but injury did restrict him to just 22 league appearances. He found the net seven times across his first two seasons in the Black Country and is unlikely to have a better chance to end his drought than against this terrible Fulham defence.

Following the payout on Mings last week, who was 8/1 to have just one shot on target, the bookies have wised up when it comes to Scott Parker's side, with Boly being offered at a best price of just 13/5 in that same market.

So we'll take the 10/1 to small stakes.

Score prediction: Wolves 2-0 Fulham (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)

Best bets: Willy Boly to score anytime at 10/1

Mark O'Haire's Super Sunday preview

I just can’t be backing the hosts at quotes shorter than evens, especially so considering United were an 8/5 shot in this fixture in front of a full Old Trafford crowd last December. That’s a significant shift in price that I don’t believe is warranted, and that’s despite taking Tottenham’s heavy recent schedule into consideration.

Spurs head north on the back of playing Newcastle, Chelsea and Maccabi Haifa in the space of seven days. Jose Mourinho has rotated his cast reasonably well and the North Londoners have benefitted from those three fixtures all taking place in the capital, minimising travel and disruption. Nevertheless, the absence of Son Heung-min is a blow for the visitors.

With possible heavy legs in the away dressing room, plus the fact the high-stakes nature of the showdown, Mourinho may opt to contain and counter rather than taking a proactive approach. The Portuguese pragmatist is renowned for his safety-first preferences, although Tottenham’s return of just two shutouts in 27 Premier League road trips alarms.

Spurs have suffered defeat in six of their last seven trips to Old Trafford and aren’t anticipated to be in peak physical condition, whereas Man Utd have completely unconvinced and are offered at unappealing odds, pointing me towards a rare punt on the draw at 5/2, whilst Both Teams To Score has potential despite its skinny offering of 4/6.

Prediction: Manchester United 1-1 Tottenham (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)

Best Bet: Draw at 5/2

Click here to read Mark O'Haire's preview in full

Aston Villa v Liverpool

• 7.15pm BST kick-off on Sky Sports
• Match odds: Home 8/1 | Draw 9/2 | Away 3/10

I've been really impressed with Aston Villa since lockdown, and it's easy why they've improved. Dean Smith's side have conceded only three times in an eight-game unbeaten run in all competitions, winning all four of their matches this season.

With respect, this fixture will be a serious step up in opponent compared to the rest of the teams they have faced during that time. Villa did beat Arsenal in their penultimate game of last season, but that match came 48 hours after the Gunners had shocked Manchester City in the FA Cup semi-finals, and they had nothing to play for in the league.

Defeat by Liverpool in July was sandwiched by losses to Wolves and Manchester United, a run of results that looked like it would end Villa's top-flight return after one season. Having fought back to survive, Smith will now truly be able to see how much his team has progressed.

They are sure to try and make things difficult for Jurgen Klopp's men, and with the middle of the pitch expected to be packed out, another tip from this week Premier League: Punting Pointers by Paul Higham is Andy Robertson at 12/1 as an anytime goalscorer - I also like him at 10/3 to have a shot on target.

The left-back has had seven goal involvements in his last eight league games, so Villa will need to keep him quiet. The man most responsible for that will be Villa right-back Matty Cash. Not only will he have the Scotland captain to deal with, but Sadio Mane too - and anyone else who decides to drift over to the left wing.

After a Premier League debut which saw little defending required following an early red card for Sheffield United, Cash made an astonishing seven tackles in the 3-0 win at Fulham. The £16m summer signing from Nottingham Forest won 84 tackles in the Sky Bet Championship last season, 10 more than any other player in the division.

In Liverpool's opening contests, opposing right-backs Luke Ayling (6) and Reece James (5) have been high in the tackle count for Leeds and Chelsea respectively, and the closest Arsenal had in their 3-4-3 formation was right-sided centre-back Rob Holding (4). It really isn't too much to ask for Cash to make 5+ tackles and at a price of 11/2 it really does look tremendous value, well worth taking on extra risk compared with the 5/2 on offer for him to make one fewer.

I will admit that given last week's showing the 11/1 for him to make six tackles is enticing to small stakes, but it's sensible to temper that slightly and still get great odds.

Score prediction: Aston Villa 0-2 Liverpool (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)

Best bet: Matty Cash to make 5+ tackles at 11/2

Odds correct as of 1030 BST on 2/10/20

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