Away from the headline clash in west London, there are four other games in the Premier League on Sunday. We have best bets for each.
Premier League recommended bets
1pt Arsenal to beat Burnley 1-0, 2-0 or 2-1 at 13/8
1pt A penalty to be awarded in Leicester v Brighton at 7/4
2pts Southampton to score 2+ goals against Sheff Utd at 10/11
1pt James Ward-Prowse to have an assist in Southampton v Sheff Utd at 15/8
0.5pt Jan Bednarek to score anytime in Southampton v Sheff Utd at 20/1
1pt Tottenham to beat Crystal Palace to nil at 23/10
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Arsenal v Burnley betting tips
- 19:15 GMT kick-off on Sky Sports Main Event
- Match odds: Home 11/20 | Draw 3/1 | Away 5/1
Michael Beardmore
It’s fair to say things have not exactly gone as Arsenal hoped since Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang settled speculation over his future by signing a new three-year contract in September.
There were fears the Gabon striker would depart with his previous deal expiring next summer, especially after his eye-catching FA Cup final winning brace against Chelsea in August.
Instead, he has remained at The Emirates but not quite as we know him – the previously prolific forward struggling for form, confidence and goals, netting just twice in 11 Premier League games.
That has led to a spat between Auba’s agent and Gunners gaffer Mikel Arteta while the striker has also been fined $10,000 for ‘degrading’ comments about the Confederation of African Football after his Gabon side had to sleep on an airport floor before an Africa Cup of Nations qualifier.
Not a great week, then.
Footballers tend to have a habit of hitting back on the pitch after off-field issues and while I have a strong hunch that Aubameyang will do exactly that against his perennial punching bags Burnley, there is little in the market to entice.
Auba has scored seven goals in five meetings with the Clarets – including three braces – since arriving at Arsenal from Borussia Dortmund in January 2018 and if he was in any sort of form, that strike rate would have me piling in.
But he’s a short-priced favourite to score first (10/3 best with Betfred), a skinny 11/10 generally to net anytime, an unappealing 5/1 for a brace and only 7/5 to score in an Arsenal win.
Of those, the first scorer is the best of a bad bunch but I'll have to swerve them all - as much as his record against Burnley tempts me, Auba's only league goal in the past three months was a penalty at Old Trafford and he hasn't scored in open play since the opening game at Fulham.
Of course, both teams on show here have struggled for goals in general. Burnley have the joint lowest Premier League tally of five, alongside Sheffield United, while Arsenal’s total of 10 from 11 games is the fourth lowest and shows exactly where their problems lie.
Only one of the Gunners’ top-flight games this term has featured more than three goals – and I fancy them to edge a tight one here in a game, after their recent run of poor results, they simply must win.
While the Gunners have lost their past three at home against Leicester, Aston Villa and Wolves, I can’t see another defeat as Sean Dyche’s men lack the firepower of those three aforementioned sides but I do expect them to keep it tight.
Yes, they have shipped goals against Manchester City (0-5), Chelsea (0-3) and Leicester (2-4) this season but we simply cannot include Arsenal in that sort of elite group any more. Take out those matches against the top sides and Burnley tend only to concede a goal per game on average.
The Gunners' creative cause is unlikely to be helped by the ongoing suspension of Nicolas Pepe, while the quest for midfield balance will be hindered by Thomas Partey's injury absence.
Sport Nation offer 13/5 on Arsenal to win by one goal – their past three league victories have all come by that margin – but just in case Auba has his ‘Burnley boots’ on again and bags a couple, I like the extra security the Sky Bet 'correct score group betting' of 1-0, 2-0 or 2-1 offers at 13/8.
Score prediction: Arsenal 1-0 Burnley (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Best bet: Arsenal to win 1-0, 2-0 or 2-1 at 13/8
Leicester v Brighton betting tips
- 19:15 GMT kick-off on Amazon Prime Video
- Match odds: Home 1/1 | Draw 5/2 | Away 13/5
Michael Beardmore
Is it time to talk about Leicester City’s home form? That’s the million dollar question as Brendan Rodgers’ men welcome Brighton & Hove Albion to the East Midlands on Monday evening.
The Foxes would be top of the Premier League pile if not for three very unexpected home defeats in their past four – a 3-0 shocker against West Ham, a narrow 1-0 loss to Aston Villa and, most surprising of all, a 2-1 defeat to Fulham a fortnight ago.
Contrast that with champagne away wins at Manchester City (5-2) and Leeds (4-1) plus a 1-0 victory at Arsenal and it’s a bit of a head-scratcher, particularly with the impact of fans out of the equation.
Visitors Brighton are becoming slightly easier to assess, a team that has been competitive in virtually every game this term, as evidenced by the fact that their past seven matches have been draws or one-goal victories either way.
A 1-1 draw with reigning champions Liverpool at The Amex was among that run and the Seagulls have been no slouches on their travels either this season, winning at Newcastle and Villa, holding Crystal Palace and only narrowly losing at Spurs.
So, while odds of even money generally – and even a best-priced 11/10 with Unibet – are on offer about a home win, which I would usually snap up when a fourth-placed team hosts one in 16th, you can understand why the Foxes’ form at the King Power makes me tentative.
If we leave aside the outright outcome, there are other intriguing markets at play here in terms of cards and penalties – two things both these teams have had plenty of this term.
Leicester top the Premier League ill-discipline table with 24 yellow cards this season, while Brighton have had 18 bookings and three red cards.
William Hill offer 11/2 on a sending-off on Sunday night and I wouldn’t put you off – but my main worry is the appointment of Martin Atkinson to officiate proceedings. He’s been fairly lenient this term, dishing out an average of just two cards per game.
Thus, it’s to the penalty spot where I’m heading given these sides are very much the Premier League’s spot-kick kings these past three months.
As our eagle-eyed Premier League: Punting Pointers column observed earlier this week, Leicester top the penalty charts with eight spot-kicks awarded to them. They have given away one too, while Brighton have earned five and conceded five.
If you’re keeping count, that’s 19 penalties awarded in the 22 games these sides have played this season – almost one per game – which is enough to chew on before we even mention VAR.
You can get general odds of 7/4 on Atkinson to point to the spot at the King Power. Sky Bet go 9/4 that one is scored but why risk it for a minimal price difference? They also offer 11/1 on two or more spot-kicks being given if you’re feeling adventurous but I’ll stick with the 7/4 that requires just one use of the referee’s whistle – or earpiece – in the area.
Score prediction: Leicester 2-1 Brighton (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Best bet: A penalty to be awarded at 7/4
Southampton v Sheffield United betting tips
- 12:00 GMT on Sky Sports Premier League
- Match odds: Home 7/10 | Draw 13/5 | Away 4/1
Joe Townsend
Sunday's opening game pits two sides against each other who could hardly have experienced more contrasting fortunes since the introduction of behind-closed-doors football.
Southampton's 38 points from 20 fixtures is mightily impressive, and their current position of fifth in the Premier League table is a fair reflection of how they've performed since the 2019/20 campaign resumed back in June.
Perhaps unsurprisingly, given they're bottom with just a point after 11 matches this season, no team has fared worse without fans than Sheffield United. Having taken 43 points from 28 fixtures before last term's unprecedented interruption, Chris Wilder's team have only managed to collect 12 from the subsequent 21.
While the Blades have pushed plenty of opponents close, none more so than Leicester who needed a last-minute Jamie Vardy strike to take all three points last weekend, I simply cannot make a case for them to get anything on Sunday.
I'm actually a little surprised to see a Southampton win trading at around 7/10, a price that some serious punters will probably take on at a hefty stake. The 6/5 on offer by combining a home win with over 1.5 goals is tempting given Saints' record of finding the net twice in every home game this season, and in eight of their 11 league games altogether.
Another potential avenue is Southampton/under 3.5 goals at 11/8, which is smart given Sheffield United's long-term consistency for being involved in low-scoring contests - 50 of their previous 54 fixtures have seen under 3.5 goals.
But one of those four exceptions was a 3-1 win for Saints during Project Restart, which is enough to put me off.
The odds of 10/11 for Ralph Hasenhuttl's side to score at least twice, or to score over 1.5 goals depending on where you bet, are slightly skinnier, but in this season of bizarre results, I prefer it; the Blades are approaching nothing-to-lose territory after all.
On to who is likely to score those Southampton goals, and it's hard to argue with the case put forward by Tom Carnduff in this week's Premier League: Punting Pointers.
No top-flight team has scored more than the seven times Saints have struck at set-pieces this season, and only Leicester (6) have conceded more from corners and free-kicks than Sheffield United. Dead-ball specialist James Ward-Prowse is 11/1 with Sky Bet to score from outside the box, but the 15/8 for the England midfielder to bag an assist is where my money is going.
In terms of who he's providing for, Jannik Vestergaard notched his third goal of the season at Brighton on Monday, and centre-back partner Jan Bednarek found the net in Southampton's last home game against Manchester United.
A case could easily be made for either to add to the Blades' woes, but with Vestergaard on the scoresheet as recently as this week he will surely be a marked man. The Dane may have scored three goals to his team-mate's one so far this season, but both players have five attempts.
Bednarek's 20/1 anytime price as opposed to Vestergaard's 13/1 clinches it.
Score prediction: Southampton 2-0 Sheffield United (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Best bets:
Crystal Palace v Tottenham betting tips
- 14:30 GMT on Sky Sports Premier League
- Match odds: Home 18/5 | Draw 11/4 | Away 8/11
Joe Townsend
Following what has been an excellent start to Jose Mourinho's first full season in north London, plenty of people are talking up Tottenham's title chances.
While Mourinho, an old hat at media mind games, may want to downplay expectations for as long as possible, you cannot argue with the facts. Since losing to Everton on opening weekend, Spurs' response has been emphatic: seven wins and three draws has them sitting top of the table.
A late collapse at home to West Ham in October saw Tottenham draw 3-3, a result that seems to have been the genesis for the Spurs' squad accepting 'the Mourinho way' as the subsequent six league games have yielded just one goal for their opponents.
Having started the season in excellent form themselves, Crystal Palace had a bit of a wobble before last weekend's trip to West Brom. It's fair to say that's over now, and it's fairer to say that one man was crucial in ending it.
Since September 2016, the Eagles have played 17 league games without Wilfried Zaha - they've lost 15 of them.
Lo and behold, after back-to-back defeats while the Ivorian self-isolated following a positive Covid-19 test, a Zaha-inspired Palace won 5-1 at West Brom. It must be said that while Zaha was the game's standout player, running Albion ragged and scoring twice, the Baggies capitulated when reduced to 10 men late in the first half.
What those five goals have done, though, is hand us an excellent opportunity for Sunday's encounter at Selhurst Park.
Despite their excellent form and defensive record, odds-on Spurs are 23/10 to win to nil in south London. That is a price I simply cannot ignore.
I envisage little else other than a straightforward away win and, against a Palace side who have failed to find the net on six occasions already this term, I think the Tottenham defence will hold firm.
In what could be a truly monumental error on my part should it happen, I am refraining from putting the following in my staking plan but it is with a heavy heart.
I do expect Tottenham to keep a clean sheet, but that doesn't mean there won't be a bizarre penalty incident that gives Palace a chance from the spot.
Captain Luka Milivojevic returned to the starting XI last weekend after a heavily disrupted period of injury and suspension, during which time Jordan Ayew and Zaha deputised from the penalty spot. In this season of record-breaking spot-kick awards, for the Palace skipper to be 15/1 to break the deadlock is huge, and against possibly any other opponent this would be a recommended bet.
It is definitely not unrecommended, though.
Score prediction: Crystal Palace 0-2 Tottenham (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Best bet: Tottenham win to nil at 23/10
Fulham v Liverpool: Super Sunday preview
- 16:30 GMT on Sky Sports Premier League
- Match odds: Home 17/2 | Draw 5/1 | Away 1/3
Mark O'Haire
Since the beginning of 2018/19, Liverpool have posted wonderful W18-D2-L1 figures away at bottom-half Premier League teams – an 86% win ratio that is reflected in their skinny 1/3 odds to triumph in the capital. But what’s most noticeable out of those 21 tussles is the sheer lack of high-scoring contests that have played out.
Only six of those fixtures featured over 3.5 goals and just one match ended with five or more, with the Liverpool victory alongside under 4.5 goals paying out on 17 (81%) occasions. While the pre-match quotes give Liverpool a 75% chance of victory, adding under 4.5 goals at 7/8 with Betway is rated at just a 53% chance.
There’s a fair degree of discrepancy between the two and I’m happy to take the plunge and punt the Reds to succeed in a relatively low-scoring clash. We have the 1-0, 2-0, 3-0, 4-0, plus the 2-1 and 3-1 correct scores onside, an outcome that’s landed in six of Fulham’s eight defeats since the Cottagers returned to the top flight.
Score prediction: Fulham 0-2 Liverpool (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Best bet: Liverpool to win and under 4.5 goals at 7/8
Click to read Mark O'Haire's preview in full
Odds correct at 1700 GMT (10/12/20)
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