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Spanish La Liga tips: Outright preview and best bets for 2022/23 season
Starting Friday, Real Madrid and Barcelona look set to renew their rivalry for the La Liga title this season. Liam Kelly casts his eye over Spain's top tier, picking out three outright bets.
Football betting tips: La Liga outright
8pts Atlético Madrid to win La Liga without Barcelona and Real Madrid at 11/10 (Sky Bet)
5pts Barcelona to win La Liga at 6/4 (BetVictor)
1pt e.w. Iñaki Williams to be La Liga top goalscorer at 66/1 (William Hill 1/4 1,2,3,4)
Defending champions Real Madrid and Barcelona take their usual place at the head of the upcoming La Liga outright market after a 2021/22 season that saw the giants fill the top two spots once more.
It was a contrasting campaign for the pairing, however.
El Clásico's participants were separated by 13 points, which is surprisingly impressive from Barca considering the tumultuous time endured last term.
Advised by me to win the league before Lionel Messi's surprise departure, they seemingly had no chance from that point on, suffering the debilitating effects of many a financial faux pas.
Of course, such disappointment brings big change for a Catalan giant.
The much-maligned Josep Maria Bartomeu was ousted from presidency in March 2021, succeeded by the ever optimistic Joan Laporta, who replaced manager Ronald Koeman with club legend Xavi early in the season.
Conditions were perfect for Xavi to start managerial life well. Barcelona were struggling to gain points, sitting ninth despite posting fairly good underlying numbers.
They finished very strongly to nab second place, averaging 2.00 expected goals for (xGF) and 0.99 expected goals against (xGA) per game under Xavi in La Liga.
Barca to bounce back
That is a great foundation for the upcoming campaign. Additionally, Barca have strengthened significantly in the summer, improving at almost every level.
Robert Lewandowski will almost certainly provide goals in a position of need, Raphinha should shine from a wide position, Franck Kessie adds depth to a strong core and Jules Koundé has been one of the best centre-backs in the world for a defensively excellent Sevilla for the last two seasons.
Indeed, BARCELONA TO WIN LA LIGA is a bet that makes appeal to me at 6/4.
La Liga Winner 2022/23 odds (via Sky Bet)
- 6/5 - Real Madrid
- 11/8 - Barcelona
- 11/2 - Atlético Madrid
Odds correct at 1330 (02/08/22)
Put up at a bigger price than Real Madrid, it's easy to see how Barca can advance past their biggest rivals.
Real have added Antonio Rüdiger and Aurélien Tchouaméni in the transfer window, but a squad that is ageing — even one that won La Liga and the Champions League — can be expected to plateau somewhat.
You would have to think that the dynamic duo of Karim Benzema and Vinícius Júnior might find it difficult to replicate their exceptional 2021/22 campaign.
Even if they do, the defence is still a worry over a prolonged period.
Carlo Ancelotti's side may well have conceded the least amount of goals in La Liga last term (31, seven fewer than next best Barcelona), but an xGA total of 50.1 suggests they were fortunate to do so.
Real's issues with defensive solidity were on show throughout their run to the Champions League final, too, unpunished thanks to some sparkling attacking performances.
A deficit of 13 points is no small ask to make up, but Barca look more than capable this season.
Atléti best of the rest
Atlético Madrid are the only other team within touching distance of Real Madrid and Barcelona in the title odds. Troubling the top two should be out of reach, however.
Diego Simeone's side finished third in what was a disappointed season for a club often mixing it with the best under the guidance of the Argentina legend.
An expected goal difference (xGD) of +24.0 last term suggests his methods are still working in Madrid, though, so backing ATLETICO MADRID TO WIN LA LIGA WITHOUT BARCELONA AND REAL MADRID catches the eye.
Available at odds-against at Sky Bet (11/10), Atléti look set to continue the very lengthy trend of no team other than Barca and Real finishing higher, a record that has stood since the 2011/12 campaign.
La Liga Winner Without Barcelona & Real Madrid odds (via Sky Bet)
- 11/10 - Atlético Madrid
- 4/1 - Sevilla
- 5/1 - Villarreal
- 15/2 - Real Sociedad
- 8/1 - Real Betis
- 9/1 - Athletic Club
- 22/1 bar
Odds correct at 1330 (02/08/22)
Sevilla are priced up as Atléti's closest challengers, but they were completely stagnant under Julen Lopetegui towards the end of last season, and although Monchi is a master of replenishing talent, it will be tough to find suitable replacements for the centre-back partnership of Diego Carlos and Jules Koundé.
While the likes of Villarreal, Real Sociedad, Real Betis and Athletic Club are all capable of taking the final Champions League qualification spot, I just can't see them ending the campaign above Atlético Madrid.
Williams to win place money?
La Liga's top goalscorer, or the Pichichi, looks destined to be a duel between Karim Benzema and Robert Lewandowski.
I wouldn't put anyone off dutching the pair to win the award, available at a best-priced 9/4 and 5/2 respectively, but that would be a good amount of capital to invest to make the bet pay.
Instead, a consistent starter up top for what will surely be a top-half side makes appeal at a big 66/1 — Athletic Club's IÑAKI WILLIAMS.
Williams' best ability is availability, breaking the La Liga record for consecutive appearances during the 2021/22 campaign, but another skill he possesses is getting into scoring positions.
Bilbao's number nine recorded 15.45 xG last term, the fourth highest total in La Liga. Unfortunately for Athletic Club, he scored just eight goals from those chances.
Better finishing will obviously be required to make one of the four places on offer in the market. I'm willing to take a chance on that given Williams has been fairly in line with his underlying numbers in almost every other season he has played.
There looks to be little value in the relegation markets, though the battle to stay in La Liga is set to be a serious one.
A real lack of depth to the bottom half of the league this season should make for an interesting fight for survival, but not one team stands out as a good bet to drop to the Segunda, so sticking with the three bets suggested is the way to go.
La Liga 2022/23 Outright best bets
- 8pts Atlético Madrid to win La Liga without Barcelona and Real Madrid at 11/10 (Sky Bet)
- 5pts Barcelona to win La Liga at 6/4 (BetVictor)
- 1pt e.w. Iñaki Williams to be La Liga top goalscorer at 66/1 (William Hill 1/4 1,2,3,4)
Odds correct at 1330 BST (02/08/22)
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