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Italian Serie A tips: Outright preview and best bets for 2022/23 season
Last season's Serie A campaign was a thrilling one at both ends of the table. Ninad Barbadikar assesses this season, selecting best bets from across the outright markets.
Football betting tips: Serie A outright
5pts Inter Milan to win Serie A at 15/8 ( BetVictor)
2.5pts e.w. Ciro Immobile to be the Serie A top scorer at 5/1 (William Hill 1/4 1,2,3,4)
2pts Roma to finish in the top four at 13/8 (Betway)
2pts Salernitana to be relegated from Serie A at 11/8 (Sky Bet)
City rivals Inter Milan and AC Milan battled it out for the Scudetto last term, but the Rossoneri eventually had the last laugh.
Stefano Pioli's side went unbeaten from late January and won six straight to clinch the title.
It was a strong defence that was the backbone of their success in the second half of the campaign. Mike Maignan kept 17 clean sheets in total, having a terrific first season in Italian football.
Inter pushed them all the way, but Milan were flawless to pip their city rivals. This season will not be much different, with the Milan giants to lead the Scudetto race all the way.
Blue half of Milan to reign
AC have not been as active in the market as Inter, but have brought Divock Origi in on a free transfer from Liverpool and are expecting returning loanee Yacine Adli to play a key role this season in replacing Franck Kessie.
Fikayo Tomori was a standout performer last term alongside another young defender in Pierre Kalulu. With Simon Kjaer potentially returning in the early parts of the season, the defence will once again play a key role in determining how well Milan perform this season.
At the attacking end of the pitch, Milan only had the fourth best attack in Serie A according to expected goals for (xGF), they averaged 1.66 per game, bettered by Roma, Atalanta and their arch-rivals Inter.
Onto the blue half of the city, Simone Inzaghi’s Inter were excellent according to the data last season, being unfortunate to come up against a stubborn winning machine.
Lautaro Martinez led their charge, enjoying a productive campaign in 21/22, scoring 21 goals whilst averaging 0.90 xG/95, the best in the league.
Serie A Winners 2022/23 Odds (via SkyBet)
- 7/4 - Inter Milan
- 15/8 - Juventus
- 7/2 - AC Milan
- 10/1 - Roma
- 14/1 - Napoli
- 20/1 - Atalanta
- 50/1 - Lazio
Odds correct at 1045 (01/08/22)
As a team, Inter’s attack was the most dominant in the league. They averaged a whopping 2.30 xGF per game, streets clear of second placed Atalanta (1.76).
That attack will only be boosted by the return of Romelu Lukaku.
The Belgian striker and Martinez had formed a devastating partnership before the former’s departure and now, Inzaghi has the chance to make the best of their talents together for Inter again.
Inter have also addressed their goalkeeping position, with Andre Onana brought in to replace the aging Samir Handanovic.
All of this - the incredible xG process from last season plus the summer moves - means INTER are the team to beat, and I'm happy to put them up as a confident selection to WIN THE TITLE.
Napoli and Juventus finished third and fourth respectively last season but are unlikely to push for the title anytime soon.
The Naples outfit have said goodbye to multiple key players this summer including Dries Mertens, Lorenzo Insigne and Kalidou Koulibaly’s, meaning a rebuild is on the cards, so talks of a title challenge are farfetched.
Juventus also have a lot of change to deal with this summer. Giorgio Chiellini, Paulo Dybala, Federico Bernardeschi, Merih Demiral and Matthijs De Ligt have all departed.
They have attempted to address those exits with the signings of Angel di Maria, Paul Pogba and centre-back Bremer.
Scoring goals was most definitely an issue for Juventus last season as they were 9th in Serie A for xGF per game (1.51).
Both Juventus and Napoli will be better off focussing on managing their transition seasons and qualifying for the Championship League in order to prepare for a title push in the season after.
Roma a top four bet
The top-four race is where multiple candidates will have their say on which two clubs will accompany the Milan giants in the Champions League.
Aside from Napoli and Juventus, Roma are another side that will look to push on after clinching the inaugural edition of the Europa Conference League under Jose Mourinho. Improvements have been made this summer with Nemanja Matic, Zeki Celik and Mile Svilar joining, but perhaps the biggest signing of the summer for the Romanisti is that of Argentina international Paulo Dybala.
The 28-year-old scored 10 goals from an xG of 7.82 last season and made five assists from an xA of 5.06.
Alongside Tammy Abraham, Dybala will expect to be the focal point of the attack and will be a good compliment to Abraham’s skillset.
Those additions plus the canny Mourinho in the dugout means ROMA TO FINISH IN THE TOP FOUR makes some appeal at the prices.
Maurizio Sarri’s Lazio are another candidate to finish in the top four this season, though there will have to be major improvements defensively, with Le Aquile ranking as the worst defensive team of the top seven allowing 1.31 xGA.
Serie A Top Four Finish Odds (via SkyBet)
- 1/8 - Inter Milan
- 1/7 - Juventus
- 1/4 - AC Milan
- 5/4 - Roma
- 6/4 - Napoli
- 7/4 - Atalanta
- 4/1 - Lazio
- 10/1 - Fiorentina
Odds correct at 1045 (01/08/22)
Gian Piero Gasperini’s Atalanta are another team to watch out for in the race for top four this season.
A January exit for Robin Gosens severely affected the team greatly, as did off-field issues with Josip Illicic and a hamstring injury sustained by Duvan Zapata.
With a fully fit and more-or-less untouched squad, Atalanta could get back to the levels we saw from them a few years ago, where they took Serie A by storm.
Granata going down
Salernitana survived relegation by just a point last season, but I Granata will find it difficult to repeat their heroics.
They conceded a league-high 78 goals last season, while not looking too bright in attack either, ranking as the fourth worst attacking team in the league (1.09 xGF per game).
Newly promoted sides Monza and Cremonese have brought in promising recruits which should see them be competitive, making Salernitana's job harder in terms of survival.
At the prices, SALERNITANA look like the value play in the RELEGATION market.
Cheer on Ciro
After topping the scoring charts in 21/22, Ciro Immobile will no doubt look to collect the top scorer gong again this season.
The 32-year-old is nearing the twilight of his career but remains Lazio’s main option up front.
In fact, since joining Lazio in 2016, Immobile has scored fewer than 20 goals just once.
Last season he bagged 27 times from chances equating to 21.5 xG, averaging an impressive 0.71 xG/95.
Only Lautaro Martinez bettered that figure, and he would be of interest if it wasn't for the re-signing of Lukaku, who will likely eat into his goal tally.
Considering that, backing IMMOBILE TO BE TOP SCORER again at a price of 5/1 makes for great value.
Quite a few formidable candidates will challenge him for the title of top goalscorer this season, with the likes of Lukaku, Dusan Vlahovic and Tammy Abraham all deserving of respect.
Atalanta’s Duvan Zapata and Naploi's Victor Osimhen also warrant a second look in the market, Zapata in particular should he be able to stay fit, but Immobile is the standout each-way selection.
Serie A 22/23 Outright best bets
- 5pts Inter Milan to win Serie A at 15/8 ( BetVictor)
- 2.5pts e.w Ciro Immobile to be the Serie A top scorer at 5/1 (William Hill 1/4 1,2,3,4)
- 2pts Roma to finish in the top four at 13/8 (Betway)
- 2pts Salernitana to be relegated from Serie A at 11/8 (Sky Bet)
Odds correct at 1045 BST (01/08/22)
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