Liam Kelly previews Southampton's hosting of Aston Villa at St Mary's, a meeting of two teams on opposite sides of the form spectrum.
Aston Villa make the journey to the south coast on Friday night in desperate need of a positive result, attempting to break a four-game losing run in the league.
Southampton, on the other hand, are in fairly good form, gaining seven points from their past three matches, performing well in all three fixtures according to the underlying numbers.
Kick-off time: 20:00 GMT, Friday
TV channel: Sky Sports Main Event
In fact, aside from some obvious — yet understandable — outliers, the Saints have been one of the better defensive sides in the Premier League this season.
Ralph Hasenhüttl has his backline in order, keeping four clean sheets in their last seven Premier League games, and allowing over 1.08 expected goals against (xGA) in only two match-ups — away to Manchester City and Chelsea.
Southampton's improved defence is a major part in our selection process, here. SOUTHAMPTON TO KEEP A CLEAN SHEET appears to be good value at the prices, an industry best 2/1 available on Sky Bet.
Aston Villa's metrics this season only serve to boost confidence in the choice of bet, too. They enter this match with massive problems in both attack and defence.
Dean Smith's men have scored goals recently, netting nine in their last six games, but their underlying metrics leave something to be desired, averaging 1.02 non-penalty expected goals for (xGF) per game over the course of the season.
Of course, Villa's most pressing issue is their defensive displays of late, conceding 12 goals from a total of 9.92 xG in defeats by Tottenham, Wolves, Arsenal and West Ham — a throwback to their time as relegation candidates pre-pandemic.
As a result, you would have to think Smith's main aim in this game is to keep it tight at the back, which is possible against a Southampton side that have scored just four goals and are averaging 1.34 xGF per game in five Premier League matches at St Mary's.
Unfortunately for the neutral, your Friday night might be better spent away from this game, with there being a real possibility of a stagnant match.
Southampton should edge it given their good form, but opting for a clean sheet from the home side is the better pick considering Aston Villa's current troubles.
Southampton v Aston Villa best bets and score prediction
- 1.5pts Southampton to keep a clean sheet at 2/1 (Sky Bet)
Score prediction: Southampton 1-0 Aston Villa (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Odds correct at 1140 BST (04/11/21)
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