Aston Villa's decline puts Dean Smith under serious pressure
Expectations are pre-meditated resentments, as the saying goes.
Admittedly, it might never quite get to the point of resentment with Dean Smith given his deep roots at Aston Villa, but lofty expectations at the club are being significantly underachieved at the moment.
With Villa currently sitting 15th in the Premier League table — only three points above the relegation zone — Smith is one of the many managers under pressure in the early parts of the 2021/22 campaign.
Perhaps that was always an inevitable bi-product of the patience granted to managers during the heights of the global pandemic, but recognition of Villa's decline, obviously accelerated by their current four-game losing streak, could possibly have come earlier.
Villa's love lockdown
Incidentally, it was maybe Aston Villa who benefitted most from the pause in play last March, beaten heavily in the final game Premier League before lockdown (4-0 v Leicester) and subsequently entering it in 19th place in the table with the underlying metrics to match.
After allowing an average of 2.41 expected goals against (xGA) per game before the break, Smith used the time afforded to him to improve a desperately poor defensive process excellently, averaging 1.04 xGA per game in the remaining games of the 2019/20 season.
That was enough to net Smith and Villa safety before using the short offseason to clearly enhance things at the other end of the pitch, posting numbers representative of a true challenger for a European place for almost half of last season.
But Villa's downturn has been in the works from a data perspective.
Despite the terrific start, they ended the 2020/21 campaign in what was a disappointing 11th spot, reverting back into the orange on their rolling xG averages, which is undeniably linked to the absence of their captain and talisman — Jack Grealish.
Grealish giveth
It is, of course, difficult to distinguish exactly how much of Villa's decline has to do with Grealish's injury issues last season and subsequent sale to Manchester City in the summer, but he was undeniably one of the best players in the Premier League before missing time.
Villa held a +7.0 xGD and averaged 1.75 points per game with Grealish in the starting line-up. Without him starting, the Villains posted a -2.5 xGD and averaged 0.93 points per game.
Now, there is no possibility of a Grealish return, but Villa have hardly been shy in their ambition despite losing a prized possession for a £100m fee.
On the contrary, Villa have spent over three times of the amount received for Grealish on transfer fees since promotion from the Championship, adding notable names such as Danny Ings, Leon Bailey and Emi Buendía this summer alone.
Heaven knows Smith's miserable now
Problems with an attempt to replace Grealish by committee have surfaced early this term, as Villa are averaging just 1.02 non-penalty expected goals for (xGF) across their ten league matches.
Increasingly worrying, however, are Villa's defensive issues.
A 1-0 win against Manchester United was undoubtedly the biggest win of Villa's season, but they allowed 2.45 xGA in that match-up.
Since that victory, Smith's side have conceded 12 goals from a total of 9.92 xG in defeats to Tottenham, Wolves, Arsenal and West Ham — performances akin to pre-pandemic levels.
Smith has changed line-ups and formation often this season, but flailing looks like failing when results are against a manager and his team, so it's no surprise to see the Villa fan under serious pressure.
Lockdown offered Smith the chance to fix Villa's troubles in 2019/20. He will have no such opportunity to do so during this busy upcoming period.
The sheer amount of ambition and investment from the top of the club makes it unlikely that Aston Villa will be relegated, but it has raised expectations.
Expectations that — lofty or not — the manager isn't meeting.
