Free Premier League betting tips: Saturday 19th December including Liverpool and Manchester City

Football betting tips: Premier League

1pt Everton to beat Arsenal at 7/5

1pt Fulham to beat Newcastle at 19/10

1pt Crystal Palace/Draw double chance v Liverpool at 17/10

0.5pts Jannik Vestergaard to score first in Southampton v Manchester City at 55/1

0.5pts Jannik Vestergaard to score anytime in Southampton v Manchester City at 18/1

For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record

Newcastle v Fulham betting tips

• 20:00 GMT on Sky Sports Premier League
• Match odds: Home 8/5 | Draw 11/5 | Away 19/10

Fulham have enjoyed a positive few weeks as they look to drag themselves away from relegation trouble. A point against Liverpool will be viewed as a bonus and there was a 2-1 win at Leicester before defeat to Manchester City. Considering the fixture list, they will be very happy with five points from their past four games.

Newcastle were battered by Leeds at Elland Road, that is despite taking the lead and then levelling things up at 2-2. Leeds eventually won the game 5-2 and that was fully deserved based on the showings of the two sides. With the Asian Handicap having both teams at 0 at the time of writing, the play in this game is to go with the away side just edging it.

Since a 3-0 defeat to Aston Villa on gameweek three, Manchester City are the only team to beat Fulham in the league by a margin of greater than one goal. Games have been tight and defeats narrow, and that puts them in a good place as they travel to another team in the bottom-half.

I remain unconvinced by Newcastle, despite the fact they were picking up points, and the defeat at Elland Road highlights the issues they have. There is also the recent shutdown of the training ground and the impact that may have had on fitness and fatigue; just how well they'll recover from playing the team who run the most in the league is anyone's guess.

Leeds tore them apart late on with some great counter attacks and Newcastle just couldn't keep up. Leeds' fourth goal was five players in white shirts compared to two for Newcastle; what makes it even more impressive is that four of those Leeds players were in their own area at the start of the move.

They did it again minutes later and Newcastle looked exhausted in the aftermath. There is barely any time to rest and recover and it could be a problem against a Fulham side who look to have some control about them now. Scott Parker's side may have drawn 0-0 with Brighton but did win the xG battle, as they would have done before Mohamed Salah's penalty for Liverpool.

Newcastle concede the most shots on average of any side in the Premier League (16.3) while posting just nine in response. It does feel like they are in a false position and their performances are that of a side who should be lower in the table.

Fulham are touching 2/1 and with those doubts around Newcastle's form and fitness, it's the visitors who look worthy of support.

Score prediction: Newcastle 0-1 Fulham (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)

Best bet: Fulham to win at 19/10

Opta facts

• Newcastle are without a clean sheet in their last 10 Premier League home games, since beating Sheffield United 3-0 back in June. However, the Magpies have won three of their last five at St James’ Park (L2).
• Newcastle are the first team to play all three promoted sides in three consecutive Premier League games since Manchester United in September 2014, who drew 0-0 with Burnley, beat QPR 4-0 and lost 3-5 against Leicester City under Louis van Gaal.
• Fulham are looking to keep back-to-back Premier League clean sheets for the first time since April 2019 (three in a row); the Cottagers have only two clean sheets in their last 43 away matches in the top-flight, though one of those was at Newcastle in December 2018.
• In their last match against Leeds, Newcastle conceded five goals in a top-flight league match against a newly promoted side for the first time since August 1958 against Blackburn. The Magpies have shipped 21 goals in their opening 12 league games, their most since conceding 22 in 2015/16, when they went on to be relegated.

Crystal Palace v Liverpool betting tips

• 12:30 GMT on BT Sport 1
• Match odds: Home 21/4 | Draw 7/2 | Away 1/2

Liverpool's victory over Tottenham on Wednesday meant that they became the bookies' favourite to retain the Premier League title. Top of the league despite numerous injury and fitness issues, the question is whether or not Jurgen Klopp's side can sustain it in the long run given their current situation.

The short-term is a trip to Crystal Palace and they can be confident in securing another win. The odds-on Reds are enjoying a six-game unbeaten run in all competitions while Palace's only win across their last five came against struggling West Brom.

They did put in a performance that deserved victory when they faced Tottenham in their last home encounter though and Liverpool slipped to a surprise draw at Fulham. There is also the fact that this game is a 12.30 kick-off, a hated time by Klopp and one that may spark another pitchside argument with Des Kelly.

Perhaps Klopp's dislike of this time is justified in the performances. They have played at lunchtime on two occasions this season, both were away games and both ended in draws (2-2 v Everton, 1-1 v Brighton). The most recent draw, the trip to Brighton, came after they played a game on the Wednesday night.

Klopp made no substitutions in that win over Tottenham too, despite pushing for five changes in the Premier League. You wonder how fit this team will be, as it is a problem he is vocal about, combined with their current injury list. As confident as Liverpool will be, the 17/10 on the double chance in Crystal Palace's favour here is worth backing.

Liverpool have lost the xG battle in two of their last four Premier League games (Brighton and Tottenham), while they would have lost it had Mohamed Salah not taken and scored a penalty against Fulham. For Palace, they have seen a better xG in their last three outings, even if the last two did end in draws.

I wasn't overly convinced by Palace at the start of the season but their campaign so far has been decent enough and the performances are getting better as the weeks progress. It should also be noted that Liverpool sit 16th in the away standings; just seven points from their six games on the road.

So while Liverpool are odds-on, there is value in backing them to drop points at Selhurst Park. Based on the track record this season, the time of the game and the regularity of the fixtures, I'm not convinced by the visitors here.

Score prediction: Crystal Palace 1-1 Liverpool (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)

Best bet: Crystal Palace/Draw in double chance at 17/10

Opta facts

• Since their return to the Premier League in 2013, Crystal Palace haven’t kept a clean sheet in any of their 14 league games against Liverpool (W4 D1 L9), with the Eagles losing each of their last six in a row against the Reds.
• Crystal Palace have kept just one clean sheet in their last 21 Premier League matches, a 1-0 win over Southampton in their first game of 2020-21. Their current 12-game run without a shutout is their worst since a 14-game run between May and November 2017.
• Liverpool are winless in their last five away league games (D4 L1), drawing each of their last four in a row. They last went six matches without a league win on the road in January 2011, while the Reds last drew five such games in succession back in December 1991 under Graeme Souness.
• After netting 89% of his Premier League goals away from home last season (8/9), all three of Roberto Firmino's league goals this season have come in home games.

Southampton v Manchester City betting tips

• 15:00 GMT on Amazon Prime Video
• Match odds: Home 6/1 | Draw 18/5 | Away 4/9

Just as we thought Manchester City were back to their usual best, they are held to a 1-1 draw by a West Brom side who were leaking goals for fun and sacked their head coach soon after. Perhaps we should acknowledge that they did have an xG figure of 2.82 compared with the Baggies' 0.43 but it was a real setback ahead of a busy run.

Southampton are enjoying a fantastic start and sit third after 13 games. That is made even more impressive by the fact that they lost their first two games and had to spend a five-week period with main striker Danny Ings missing. He is back and firing though and the Saints, despite being big outsiders, will be hoping they can push City here.

They're 1/2 to get onto the scoresheet and goals can be expected, it's just the way Southampton play. They want to press out of possession and look to attack in it. One thing that has been a consistent strength is their goals from set-pieces - they lead the Premier League in this category with eight.

Now, Manchester City aren't a complete mess at set-piece defending but they have conceded a couple from this situation so far. What is interesting though is how loose they have become with it in recent weeks and that is reflected in the shots statistics.

In the draw with West Brom, they conceded two shots to defenders (Semi Ajayi, who scored, and Darnell Furlong). Against Manchester United, Harry Maguire and Victor Lindelof combined for three shots. In the 2-0 win over Fulham, Tosin Adarabioyo and Ola Aina had one each.

Going back further, James Tarkowski had an effort on goal in the 5-0 win over Burnley while Tottenham, who only had four shots in their 2-0 win over City, saw one of those efforts come from Eric Dier. If you go back to the contest against Arsenal, David Luiz, Gabriel and Kieran Tierney combined for a huge six total shots.

While we may not believe City will concede from a set-piece based on a quick look at the headline numbers, the chances they have presented to opposition defenders will be a worry and against this Southampton team, it may well cost them a goal. That is why Jannik Vestergaard is well overpriced at 55/1 for the first goal and 18/1 to strike anytime.

The Saints centre-back has already scored three this season, including one in the recent win over Brighton, while he has also had at least one shot in each of his last three outings. His aerial presence is clear and only Burnley's Tarkowski can boast a better aerial duels won rate for centre-backs in the Premier League.

It is helped by James Ward-Prowse's ability to land a pass at the feet or head of anybody and Southampton will continue to enjoy plenty of set-piece success this season. We've already had centre-back success in the past seven days with Angelo Ogbonna landing a 12/1 winning tip on Friday and Ciaran Clark mentioned at 20/1 on Wednesday, and there is potential that Vestergaard can extend that run here.

There will be an aerial mismatch against City's two likely starting centre-backs. Ruben Dias wins an average of two aerial duels per game while John Stones is on 1.8. Even if Pep Guardiola opts for more of a presence there in Nathan Ake, he has only seen 2.6 per game. Vestergaard's defensive partner, Jan Bednarek, is on 2.8.

Goals are expected and we can be fairly confident in both the 1/2 on over 2.5 goals and the same price on the Saints striking at some point. The outright result provides little appeal considering so the best route is playing to the big prices surrounding Vestergaard. A quick note on this is that Betfair and Paddy Power's goalscorer terms means each-way selections are paid out on the first five scorers. It's better to place first and anytime as separate bets at the same price just in case.

Score prediction: Southampton 1-2 Manchester City (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)

Best bet: Jannik Vestergaard to score first at 55/1

Best bet: Jannik Vestergaard to score anytime at 18/1

Opta facts

• Southampton are looking to win back-to-back Premier League games against Man City for the first time since May 2003 (a run of three), after winning this exact fixture 1-0 in July last season.
• Manchester City’s 0-1 defeat in this exact fixture last season ended a run of six straight Premier League victories against Southampton, across which they had netted 17 goals.
• Southampton’s 1-0 win against Man City in July ended a run of 16 consecutive Premier League games in which they’d conceded to the Citizens. They last recorded consecutive clean sheets against them between March 2001 and May 2003 (3 games).
• Southampton have scored at least twice in each of their last seven Premier League home games, scoring 16 goals in total in that run. Saints’ previous 16 league goals at St Mary’s had come over a period of 16 games.
• Manchester City have drawn their last two Premier League games. They’ve not gone three without a win in the competition since a run of four in March/April 2017, the first three of which were all draws.

Everton v Arsenal betting tips

• 17:30 GMT on Sky Sports Premier League
• Match odds: Home 7/5 | Draw 12/5 | Away 21/10

Arsenal ended their run of three consecutive Premier League defeats with a draw against Southampton last time out but they remain in a troubling position in the standings. The top four should have been the aim, yet after 13 games they sit 15th and just five points above the drop zone.

Mikel Arteta's side probably won't go down but the fact we're even discussing them as part of the picture is remarkable. The season has become a disaster, a well-paid attack aren't producing and they remain a shot-shy team; they are producing an average of 10.2 shots per game and conceding 11.7.

Carlo Ancelotti's Everton are seemingly back to their best after a rough patch of form. They ended a three-game losing streak with a win over Fulham but followed that up with a defeat to Leeds and a draw at Burnley. Since then, they have beaten Chelsea and secured all three points in a trip to Leicester.

Both were deserved wins and they should have beaten Burnley. They are still fifth which they will be happy with at this stage and they are more than equipped to secure victory here. What is surprising is that they are not just odds-against, but an attractive 7/5 price too.

I don't quite understand why there is that reluctance to back opposition teams against Arsenal based on their form across the opening third of the season. They have won just four of their 13 games, and lost seven. They are 15th in the away standings with three losses on the road so far.

Goodison Park has been good to Everton on the whole this season with Manchester United and Leeds the only teams to beat them in six attempts. The other four games have ended in three wins and a draw; two of those games have seen them score at least four.

What will be most pleasing to Ancelotti is how they have kept back-to-back clean sheets after defensive problems beforehand. Scoring is far from an issue but they conceded two goals in eight of their opening nine games. They will be hopeful of keeping another clean sheet here.

We could dive into the markets more but there is little need when the top price on a home win is so good. The Asian Handicap is sitting on -0.25 currently and the money is favouring Everton. There is little desire to back Arsenal getting anything here on the back of yet another poor performance and the home side are a bet at the odds.

Score prediction: Everton 2-0 Arsenal (Sky Bet odds: 11/1)

Best bet: Everton to win at 7/5

Opta facts

• Everton have kept a clean sheet in each of their last two home Premier League games against Arsenal (W1 D1), last keeping three in a row at home to the Gunners between November 1966 and April 1969.
• Since beating Fulham 3-0 on the opening day, Arsenal have scored just twice in their last five away league games (W1 D1 L3), failing to find the net in their last two. The Gunners last went three away league games without a goal in September 2017.
• Arsenal have lost eight of their last 12 Premier League matches kicking off at 5.30pm (W3 D1), although one of their wins in that time was a 5-1 victory over Everton in February 2018.
• Arsenal have won just 14 points from 13 Premier League games this season, their lowest tally at this stage of a top-flight campaign since 1974-75 (9 pts – assuming 3pts/win). Indeed, Arsenal have picked up just one win in their last nine Premier League games (W1 D2 L6).

Odds correct at 1600 GMT (17/12/20)

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