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Southampton v Man City free betting tips: Best bets and tactical preview | Premier League
Tactics expert Alex Keble previews Saturday's meeting between Southampton and Manchester City, and explains why he is backing Ralph Hasenhuttl's side.
At the beginning of the 2020/21 Premier League season few people would have predicted that just four points would separate Southampton and Manchester City at the one-third mark. Nobody would have predicted Ralph Hasenhuttl’s side would be the ones on top.
This Saturday’s clash at St Mary’s is quietly one of the most important Premier League games of the festive season. City, having been badly hit by fatigue, cannot afford to enter the most hectic period of the campaign on the back of three consecutive winless games. As for Southampton, if they collect three points this weekend there’s a possibility Hasenhuttl’s side will top the table at Christmas.
Tactical analysis of the fixture points to a Saints win.
What formation does Hasenhuttl use?
Southampton look to play explosive vertical football, with Hasenhuttl instructing his players to make good use of counter-attacks and transitions. The aim is to defend and attack via disruptions – in the speed of play and in the style – by suddenly switching up their pressing game and their possession style.
On the ball, some low-tempo possession is mixed with bursts of line-breaking, often targeted at getting the two wingers – who dip infield, forming a 4-2-2-2 – on the ball unexpectedly between the lines, receiving it on the half-turn to feed Danny Ings in behind.
Like so many of the best German-inspired sides in the modern game, Southampton explode forward in high numbers from seemingly innocuous positions, catching the other team off guard.
The attacking lines themselves are highly choreographed in training, with moves etched into muscle memory to form what are known as ‘automatisms’; American Football-style set plays that allow Southampton to arrive in the final third in a flurry of activity.
With the full-backs overlapping to provide width, the general structure of these explosive attacks sees the wingers cut inside to join Che Adams and Danny Ings in what Hasenhuttl refers to as the ‘red zone’: the attacking midfield area of the pitch just outside the box and in front of the opposition back four.
As with the likes of Jurgen Klopp, this is seen as the most creatively fertile area, hence why two of Stuart Armstrong, Nathan Redmond, Moussa Djenepo and Theo Walcott will roam across the width of the ‘red zone’ to join the two strikers.
Southampton’s pressing is the foundation for those attacks. Rather than press frantically throughout, again it is a case of unexpected disruptions; of sitting in a compressed midblock that limits space, before choosing moments to engage en masse or set a pressing trap.
These change quite considerably depending on the opposition, but whatever the strategy the goal is to counter-press, meaning to nab the ball and quickly move forward, making use of the chaos that occurs in the transitions.
Why are Southampton so good this year?
There are two major changes that have helped Southampton move up a notch in 2020/21. The first of these is shifting James Ward-Prowse into central midfield to replace Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg, which is a huge movement in playing style for such a crucial role in the team.
Whereas Hojbjerg largely held his midfield position alongside Oriol Romeu, putting extra emphasis on the wide players to get forward, Ward-Prowse is truly a box-to-box player.He makes superb late runs into the penalty area and, with his superior technical ability, helps Southampton to stay on top for longer.
Hasenhuttl’s side average 53.4% possession per match this year, up from 49.2% in 2019/20.
Second, Che Adams has now settled at the club, becoming a much more effective partner to Ings. The former Birmingham City player has an unusual mix of strength and creativity, meaning he can drop off as Ings spins behind to link with his strike partner while also collecting plenty of second balls when Southampton play longer passes into the opposition half.
Saints are more dynamic, and ruthless, with Adams in the side, hence why they are out-performing their xG by 9.33 goals, more than any other Premier League team. Back Ings to score anytime at 7/4.
Why Man City are struggling this season
Man City are practically the inverse of Southampton this season. Pep Guardiola’s biggest issue is that his players look passive both on and off the ball; their pressing game and intensity in possession having dramatically diminished, leading to meandering performances defined by sideways passing and meek defending.
This is because the congested fixture list is particularly hurting the biggest clubs, who are predominantly faced with a deep defensive shell to try to pick apart. When legs and minds are tired, inevitably this becomes difficult to do, and as the press drops off opponents increasingly get space to look up and pick out a pass over the top of the City defence.
Southampton’s explosiveness, then, should mean they can blow City away – arriving first to every loose ball, coming out stronger in the challenges, and generally enacting a sequenced game plan that leaves Guardiola’s side looking particularly timid.
Saints will largely sit in their midblock, giving the City centre-backs time on the ball but blocking off the passing lanes into Kevin De Bruyne and the City forwards.
Time and time again this season Guardiola’s attacking patterns have been neutralised by holding a shape that surrounds and suffocates De Bruyne, primarily because Ilkay Gundogan and Rodri do not have the ability to hit quick, purposeful forward passes to split the lines.
City will probably be reduced to aimless possession, then, slowing right down – and thus becoming vulnerable to the disruption methods as Southampton engage a sudden press or drive through the heart of midfield on the counter-attack.
Certainly with Man City’s wingers stretched wide to get on the ball and their full-backs pressing forward, Gundogan and Rodri are under threat of being overwhelmed with Southampton runners when Hasenhuttl’s wide men cut infield.
Where Man City can look to hurt Saints
Southampton are certainly not without their flaws. Aston Villa, Chelsea, Tottenham, and Manchester United have all scored three or more goals against them in the league this season, and on each occasion issues developed in front of the Saints full-backs.
That is the problem with a narrow 4-2-2-2, and with a system that aims to pour bodies forward in quick bursts: if the opponent bites, and the game descends into end-to-end action, then Southampton are just as vulnerable as they are creative.
Man City can hope to poke holes in the defence through Riyad Mahrez and De Bruyne as the latter shifts out to the right, because on occasion Ryan Bertrand will be all alone as City break behind Djenepo.
But this pattern will only emerge if Southampton fail to play with control and defensive poise. Judging by the way almost all of Man City’s opponents have managed to sit off, stay patient, and take advantage of some sluggish and passive football, Hasenhuttl’s team can be relied upon to assert themselves – and avoid chaos - on Saturday afternoon.
They are the team in form, the team that is higher in the table, and the team that is more coherent.
Southampton ought to be the bookies’ favourites.
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