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Premier League betting tips: Previews, Super 6 predictions & best bets for Saturday's 3pm kick-offs
Mark your card for Saturday's 3pm kick-offs in the Premier League with the best bets, Super 6 predictions and top stats for each game.
Recommended bets
1pt Felipe Anderson to score anytime in Bournemouth v West Ham at 5/2
1pt James McArthur to be shown a card in Liverpool v Palace at 7/2
1pt Marcus Rashford to score and win in Manchester United v Brighton at 6/4
1pt Watford to win 1-0, 2-0 or 2-1 v Burnley at 7/4
1pt Cardiff to beat Newcastle at 69/20
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
3pm fixtures
Bournemouth v West Ham
A clash between two sides aiming for the top half of the Premier League. This is incredibly difficult to call the result with confidence due to both sides' unpredictability.
Eddie Howe's side were beaten 1-0 at Bournemouth last weekend, meaning they are now on a run of one win in their last nine in all competitions. They have to get out of it eventually, but we keep expecting them to do so and they continue to fail.
West Ham, meanwhile, have picked up under Manuel Pellegrini of late after a difficult start. They are ninth in the table and on a run of just two defeats in their last 10, most recently beating Unai Emery's Arsenal at the London Stadium.
This should give them confidence and that is why we are siding with the Hammers for this one. Backing the east Londoners in a draw no bet at evens is a great shout, while they are a best price of 6/5 to score 2+ goals at the Vitality.
The Cherries, who recently added Nathaniel Clyne to their ranks on loan, have a questionable defence and have conceded six in their last two home outings in all competitions, so this bet is a tempting option which allows insurance in the event of a high-scoring draw.
The preference, though, is to go with a goalscorer for a tastier price. Felipe Anderson was an expensive arrival in the summer but the Brazilian has proved to be a good addition. He plays in an advanced midfield role and will support the lone attacker.
It is unknown who that attacker could be due to Marko Arnautovic's uncertain future and Anderson can be the man to step up and find holes in the Cherries defence with or without the Austrian.
The crafty playmaker is due a goal, has had seven shots in his last two away appearances in the Premier League and half of his eight goals in a West Ham shirt have come away from home. At a best price of 5/2 anytime, Anderson is worth a small stake, 7/2 in a score and win if you are confident the Hammers will triumph.
Super 6 prediction: Bournemouth 2-3 West Ham (Sky Bet odds: 25/1)
Best bet: Felipe Anderson to score anytime at 5/2
Opta facts and statistics
- Bournemouth have won three of their seven Premier League meetings with West Ham, including the reverse fixture in August (D2 L2). Swansea are the only side they’ve beaten more in the competition (4).
- West Ham have never failed to score in their 12 previous meetings with Bournemouth in all competitions, netting 25 goals in total.
- Both teams have scored in all five meetings between Bournemouth and West Ham in Bournemouth in all competitions, with each side winning once (D3).
- Bournemouth have picked up just seven points from their last 36 available in the Premier League (P12 W2 D1 L9).
- West Ham have won 14 points away from home in the Premier League this season (W4 D2 L4) – just one fewer than they managed in the whole of 2017-18 on the road (W3 D6 L10).
- West Ham have won three of their last four Premier League away games (L1), as many as they had in their previous 15 on the road in the competition (W3 D5 L7).
- Bournemouth have conceded 14 goals in their four Premier League games since Christmas – more than any other side in the division in that time.
- Bournemouth’s Callum Wilson has scored five goals in five Premier League games against West Ham, more than he has vs any other side in the competition.
- Since the start of last season, Marko Arnautovic has been involved in 26 Premier League goals for West Ham (18 goals, 8 assists) – double that of any other Hammers player in that time.
- With his goal against Arsenal last time out, Declan Rice became the 10th different teenager to score a Premier League goal for West Ham. The last teenager to score in consecutive top-flight appearances for the Hammers was Jermain Defoe in March 2002.
We take a look at some of the potential weekend wagers in relation to the cards, corners and goals count, as we head into matchday 23.
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Liverpool v Crystal Palace
As can be the case with Man City games, it can be difficult to find value when a top Premier League side is hosting a bottom half team, but there are some good prices if you dig a little deeper for this one.
Palace have scored in their last four away games, including a 3-2 win at Man City (but we cannot expect another fluke result here), averaging two per game in that time, and backing Liverpool to win and BTTS is at a best price of more than 2/1.
Liverpool are still short defensively, with James Milner expected to fill in at right-back while Joel Matip should come in to the centre of defence to partner Virgil van Dijk, so a goal for Palace is not out of question.
An odds-on shot which is an eye-catching price and a good way to boost your pot is backing Crystal Palace +3 in a goal handicap. It is a best price of 8/15 and considering Liverpool have more low-scoring, disciplined victories this season it is worth backing.
The cards market is where we could find good value, with James McArthur one to watch.
The Scot has four bookings to his name this season and is due another. The Eagles man can expect a busy afternoon in the centre of midfield against a dangerous, interchanging attack. He averages 1.5 fouls per game and should be in store for a busy afternoon at Anfield and is the preferred bet for this one.
Super 6 prediction: Liverpool 3-1 Crystal Palace (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)
Best bet: James McArthur to be shown a card at 7/2
Opta facts and statistics
- Liverpool have won five of their last six Premier League games against Crystal Palace, including the last three in a row. They’ve never won four consecutively against the Eagles in the top flight.
- Crystal Palace have won three of their last four Premier League visits to Anfield to face Liverpool, though they did lose this fixture last time out in August 2017.
- Liverpool are looking to win seven consecutive Premier League home games for the first time since January 2014.
- Liverpool are unbeaten in their last 31 Premier League home games – they last had a longer run in the top-flight between February 1978 and December 1980, a club record run of 63 home games without defeat.
- Liverpool haven’t conceded more than once in any of their last 16 Premier League home games, keeping 12 clean sheets in that time (four goals conceded).
- Crystal Palace are looking to win three consecutive away Premier League games for the first time since May/August 2015, and the first time within the same season since February 2015.
- Crystal Palace have failed to score in six of their last seven Premier League games against sides starting the day top (W1 D1 L5), with the exception being a 2-1 win at Chelsea in April 2017.
- Liverpool’s Sadio Mane has scored more Premier League goals against Crystal Palace than he has against any other side in the competition (6).
- Liverpool’s Sadio Mane has scored in his last three Premier League games against Crystal Palace – he’s never scored in four in a row against an opponent before.
- Liverpool’s Mohamed Salah is currently on 48 Premier League goals (46 for Liverpool, 2 for Chelsea). He’s looking to become the first Egyptian and eighth African player overall to score 50 in the competition.
Manchester United v Brighton
It is easy to look at Man United's fixtures since Ole Gunnar Solskjaer replaced Jose Mourinho and say results were a given, but you can be fairly certain the Red Devils would not have collected so many points in that time frame should the Portuguese have stayed.
The Norwegian has overseen seven wins in a row since taking the caretaker role at Old Trafford and there is a visible improvement in the team's body language and overall approach, with the shackles now off and players flourishing with the freedom they have been allowed.
The Seagulls stunned United 3-2 in the reverse fixture in August, but a repeat result is a long shot here.
One man Solskjaer is getting the best out of is Marcus Rashford, who has been trusted in the number nine role. The England man has four goals in his last six appearances, including in the win at Spurs last week, and finally looks to be fulfilling his potential.
Romelu Lukaku and Anthony Martial are shorter prices to score anytime, yet Rashford should be through the middle and is a best price of 11/8, 6/4 in a score-and-win for the Old Trafford clash. It may be a little obvious, but for the price it is still worth pushing.
Other markets to look at are the win-to-nils, with United an even money price against a side still struggling on the road, while backing Pascal Gross to register a shot on target is also an interesting option.
The German is set to play a supporting role to Glenn Murray and is 13/8 to get 1+ shots on target. He scored against United at the Amex, has had five attempts in his last four games and is often the man to take set pieces, so this is a good market without relying on goals. Gross and Rashford to have one or more on target each is available at over just 2/1.
Super 6 prediction: Manchester United 3-0 Brighton (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Best bets:
Marcus Rashford to score and win at 6/4
Pascal Gross to get 1+ shots on target at 13/8
Opta facts and statistics
- Manchester United have never lost a home match against Brighton in all competition (W8 D2), winning the last four in a row without conceding.
- Brighton have won their last two games against Man Utd (both in the Premier League), having one just one of their previous 18 against them in all competitions (D5 L12).
- Manchester United are looking to score at least three goals in four consecutive home league games for the first time since September 2011.
- Brighton have lost all eight of their Premier League away games against the ‘big six’ sides, with their only goal in those games coming at Manchester City in May 2018.
- Manchester United are looking to secure six consecutive Premier League victories for the first time since January 2017.
- Man Utd have kept back-to-back clean sheets in the Premier League, having kept just two in their first 20 league games of 2018-19.
- Ole Gunnar Solskjaer is looking to become the first ever manager to win their first six league games in charge of Manchester United.
- Since winning 3-2 at Man City on the final day of the 2012-13 season with Norwich City, Brighton manager Chris Hughton has lost his last 14 away matches against the ‘big six’ in all competitions by an aggregate score of 3-41.
- Man Utd’s Paul Pogba has scored twice in his last two Premier League games at Old Trafford – Cristiano Ronaldo is the only player to score at least twice in three consecutive home games for the club in the competition, doing so in November 2008.
- Marcus Rashford could make his 150th appearance for Manchester United in all competitions in this match. He’s scored more goals than any other player for the club since his debut (40).
We take a look at some of the potential weekend wagers in relation to the cards, corners and goals count, as we head into matchday 23.
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Newcastle v Cardiff
Looking at this match, Cardiff are massively overpriced for the win and that is why we will keep it simple.
It is 18th v 17th at St James' Park, but a number of cons for Newcastle presents a good case for a Bluebirds' victory.
To start, Newcastle are the second-worst home team in the Premier League this season, collecting just seven points from 33. With a lack of January additions, further off-field issues and fans desperately wanting rid of Mike Ashley, the atmosphere has not been great on Tyneside and there could be an element of fear in the home dressing room.
To add to that, that intimidated home dressing room could be full of more youngsters and fringe players than normal. Injuries to Jamaal Lascelles, Ciaran Clark and Isaac Hayden in the FA Cup added to Rafa Benitez's misery in midweek, with Jonjo Shelvey, Mohamed Diame and Kenedy all doubts and Ki Sung-Yueng and Yoshinori Muto on international duty. When the going gets tough...
Finally, that FA Cup clash saw them through to round four on Tuesday after their replay at Blackburn, but it took extra-time and a lot of the same players will be involved again.
Neil Warnock's Bluebirds have won just once away from home this term, against Leicester, and they can grind out a result on Saturday after an improvement in performances.
Considering they are such good odds, a win is worth a small stake and if you are less confident then there is still value in a double chance at an appealing 10/11, while backing Cardiff in a draw no bet is still around 2/1.
Super 6 prediction: Newcastle 0-1 Cardiff (Sky Bet odds: 17/2)
Best bet: Cardiff to win at 69/20
Opta facts and statistics
- Newcastle have won 10 of their last 11 league games against Cardiff, with their only failure in that time a 0-0 draw in the reverse fixture in August.
- Cardiff have lost 17 of their last 18 away league games against Newcastle (W1), losing the last nine in a row since a 4-0 win in November 1963.
- In the top-flight, Newcastle have won their last seven home meetings with Cardiff by an aggregate score of 23-0.
- Only Tottenham (38%) have won a lower percentage of their Premier League points in home games this season than Newcastle (39%). However, only Fulham (14%) have won a lower percentage in away games than Cardiff (26%).
- No team in the top four tiers of English football have lost more home league games this season than Newcastle (8).
- Newcastle haven’t scored more than once in any of their last nine Premier League games, netting just five goals in total (W1 D3 L5).
- Cardiff are looking to win back-to-back away games in the top-flight for the first time since February 1957, having beaten Leicester in their last Premier League game on the road.
- No team has failed to score in more Premier League games than Cardiff this season (10), with the Bluebirds netting just once in their last four matches.
- A league-high ratio 56% of Newcastle’s Premier League goals this season have been headers (9/16).
- As Cardiff manager, Neil Warnock has faced Newcastle three times in all competitions without winning – the only side he’s faced more with the Bluebirds without registering a win is Sheffield Wednesday (four times).
Southampton v Everton
After a bad run of form, Everton are starting to turn a corner with three wins in their last five in all competitions.
Their 2-0 win over Bournemouth last weekend eased the unnecessary pressure building on Marco Silva and Saturday's clash is a good chance for them to move up the top half and towards seventh place - best of the rest, which is realistically their best hope this term after Man United's upturn in form.
The Toffees come up against a Saints side which played 120 minutes in midweek as they crashed out of the FA Cup against Derby on penalties. Some first teamers were rested, some involved, and tired legs could be evident at St Mary's on Saturday considering Ralph Hasenhuttl's intense style - both in games and on the training ground.
With Everton fancied, the following stat makes one market particularly appealing - that Southampton have conceded at least two goals in their last four home matches. You can back the visitors to score 2+ goals on the south coast at 11/8 and that appeals most from this clash.
Super 6 prediction: Southampton 0-2 Everton (Sky Bet odds: 12/1)
Best bet: Everton to score 2+ goals at 11/8
Opta facts and statistics
- Southampton have won four of their last five home league games against Everton, losing only in August 2015 (0-3).
- Having won the reverse fixture 2-1, Everton are looking to secure the league double over Southampton for the first time since the 2001-02 campaign.
- Everton have failed to score on four of their last six away league visits to face Southampton.
- Southampton have won three of their last six Premier League games (D1 L2), as many as they had in their previous 28 in the competition (W3 D10 L15).
- 53% of Southampton’s Premier League points this season (10/19) have been won in their seven games under manager Ralph Hasenhüttl (W3 D1 L3), while 44% of their league goals this season have been since the Austrian took charge (10/23).
- Southampton are looking to avoid three consecutive home defeats within the same Premier League season for the first time since their first three such games at St Mary’s back in October 2001.
- Everton are looking to win consecutive Premier League games for the first time since October. However, they’ve not won a league game on the south coast since August 2015 (3-0 at Southampton), drawing three and losing five since.
- Everton’s Theo Walcott has scored five goals in his last three appearances in all competitions against his former side Southampton – as many as he netted in 23 games for Saints in the 2005-06 season.
- Southampton’s Shane Long ended a run of 19 Premier League games without a goal last time out against Leicester. His next strike will be his 50th in the competition, a milestone only three other players from the Republic of Ireland have achieved (Robbie Kane, Niall Quinn and Damien Duff).
- Everton’s Ademola Lookman has been directly involved in seven goals in his last six starts in league competition (3 goals, 4 assists).
Watford v Burnley
Watford have a great chance to make it five unbeaten in all competitions on Saturday as they host former boss Sean Dyche and Burnley.
With the Hornets gathering form and the Clarets - hit by injuries and suspensions - collecting just eight points from 33 on the road, you cannot go far wrong with backing the hosts to win with over 1.5 total goals at evens, that bet allows for a 2-0 and gives you a good price in the process.
Watford to win 1-0, 2-0 or 2-1 with Sky Bet takes you above even money at 7/4, great value considering a home win is so strongly fancied.
In other markets, bookings could be one to watch. This could be a scrappy affair and Watford are fourth in the yellow cards table this term, Burnley second with 45, but you will need to go over 50+ points to get odds-against and that is why the triple chance on the scorelines takes preference.
Super 6 prediction: Watford 2-0 Burnley (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Best bet: Watford to win 1-0, 2-0 or 2-1 at 7/4
Opta facts and statistics
- Watford are looking to do the league double over Burnley for the first time since the 2002-03 second tier campaign, having won the reverse fixture 3-1 at Turf Moor.
- Burnley won this exact fixture 2-1 last season – they’ve not won back-to-back away league games against Watford since February 2002.
- None of the 19 previous league meetings between Watford and Burnley at Vicarage Road have ended goalless, with Watford failing to score just twice.
- Watford have won nine points from losing positions in the Premier League so far this season – in no campaign in the competition have they previously won more (also nine in 2017-18).
- Watford have lost just one of their last seven Premier League games (W3 D3).
- Burnley have come from behind to win their last two Premier League games – the last side to win three in a row having been behind in the competition was Arsenal in March 2012 (a run of four).
- Burnley are looking to win four consecutive Premier League games for the first time since a run of five in April 2018.
- Burnley are looking to win their first three top-flight games in a calendar year for the first time since 1958.
- Burnley have won their last three Premier League games – as many as they had in their previous 24 in the competition (W3 D5 L16).
- Jose Holebas has been directly in more Premier League goals than any other Watford player this season (3 goals, 6 assists). One more goal or assist will see him become just the fourth different player to reach 10 goal involvements in a single Premier League campaign for the Hornets (after Troy Deeney, Odion Ighalo and Abdoulaye Doucoure).
We take a look at some of the potential weekend wagers in relation to the cards, corners and goals count, as we head into matchday 23.
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Odds correct as of 1500 GMT on 17/01/18