Leicester head to Rome for the second leg of their Europa Conference League tie with Roma, and Jake Osgathorpe gives his best bets in this match preview.
Leicester are a game away from a European final, but face the daunting task of taking on a Jose Mourinho-led Roma side in their own back yard.
The Foxes were the better side in the first leg, but it was a classic Mourinho display - score early and sit back - with a 1-1 draw a decent enough result for the Italians.
Leicester created enough to warrant a first leg lead, but will now face a different task in front of a raucous home crowd that has helped their side to 10 home wins in Serie A this term, the third most in the league.
Mourinho's men have been steady operators in Rome, averaging 1.55 xGF and 1.10 xGA per Serie A game, while winning three of an unbeaten five games at the Olimpico in the Europa Conference League, netting 16 times and conceding four in those matches.
It really is a tough place to go, and Leicester's away record this season makes for grim reading.
Roma v Leicester (agg: 1-1)
Kick-off time: 20:00 BST, Thursday
TV channel: BT Sport 3
In the Premier League, Brendan Rodgers' side have lost nine of 17 away matches, averaging 1.15 xGF and a whopping 2.02 xGA per game, while also losing three of six away in Europe.
They will create chances here, but their vulnerable defence is a major issue, even with players returning from injuries.
I think Roma have a touch more quality than the Foxes, plus a strong home advantage and process against a struggling away side, so the ROMA WIN IN 90 MINUTES appeals at a best price of 6/5.
Price-wise, Roma went off at 6/10 at home against both Fiorentina and Sassuolo, two teams who I think aren't too far off the level of Leicester, while Mourinho's mob went off as 13/10 favourites when welcoming Serie A leaders AC Milan - who are a lot better than the Foxes.
All of this means the price of 6/5 is too big, they should be closer to even money - maybe even odds-on - here, so I am happy to get with the Italians.
Roma v Leicester best bets and score prediction
- 1.5pts Roma to win in 90 minutes at 6/5 (Unibet)
Score prediction: Roma 2-1 Leicester (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
Odds correct at 1525 BST (03/05/22)
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