West Ham trail 2-1 on aggregate as they head to Frankfurt in a huge Europa League semi-final second leg. Jake Osgathorpe previews the game, selecting his best bets.
We have the prospect of a cracking game at Deutsche Bank Park on Thursday, with two attack-minded teams meeting for a second leg showdown looking to book their place in the Europa League final.
Frankfurt are the team with a double advantage heading into this game, a 2-1 aggregate lead and playing the second leg at home, but West Ham were good in the first leg, creating an abundance of chances that, on another day, could have seen them win the game (xG: WHU 2.86 - 1.48 FRA).
That should give the Hammers plenty of hope here, as should the fact that they created chances in an abundance of different ways; fast breaks, set-pieces, controlled possession and long balls.
Frankfurt v West Ham (agg: 1-2)
Kick-off time: 20:00 BST, Thursday
TV channel: BT Sport 1
They will create again here, I have no doubt, with Frankfurt's defence extremely vulnerable, particularly at home.
Die Adler have a simply woeful home record this season. Frankfurt have lost five of their last eight Bundesliga home games, including against relegation threatened Armenia Bielefeld, drawing two against a Hoffenheim side in free-fall and bottom side Greuther Furth.
In total this season they have played 21 home matches across the Bundesliga and Champions League, winning just five.
They have scored 27 and conceded 27 times across those matches, and averaged 1.44 xGF and 1.48 xGA per game, highlighting the end-to-end nature of their matches.
While a draw would be enough to see them progress, that home form is concerning enough to suggest that the 3/10 available generally about them to progress looks too short, with the Hammers underestimated in that market.
That brings us nicely onto the selection, which is to back WEST HAM TO QUALIFY.
The Hammers do face an uphill battle, but they only need to win by one goal to take the game to extra-time, and a two-goal victory in 90 minutes sees them through.
Given this same team just went away to Lyon - a team I see as on par with Frankfurt in terms of quality - and won 3-0, gives more confidence to this selection, and despite the poor results domestically of late, they have remained in games with a usually weakened XI.
Their eggs are in this Europa League basket, and the same can be said for the Germans, but while Frankfurt have toiled at home in the Europa League (one win in five, keeping no clean sheets), West Ham have thrived on the road, averaging 2.09 xGF and 1.11 xGA per away game on their way to winning three of five.
At the prices on offer, I am happy to have a small wager on David Moyes's men doing a job on Frankfurt here and making a European final.
Eintracht Frankfurt v West Ham best bets and score prediction
- 1pt West Ham to qualify at 14/5 (General)
Score prediction: Frankfurt 1-3 West Ham (Sky Bet odds: 20/1)
Odds correct at 1215 BST (05/05/22)
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