Football betting tips: Championship
1pt Wilfried Gnonto 3+ shots at 13/8 (Betway)
BuildABet @ 20/1
Wilfried Gnonto 3+ shots
Georginio Rutter 3+ tackles
Joe Rodon 2+ tackles
Mathematically, automatic promotion is in Ipswich's hands, but a win for Leeds at QPR on Friday night gives them the psychological edge.
A victory moves them four points clear of third. Kieran McKenna's side may hold two games in-hand but they need to go and get wins away at Coventry and Hull - anything less puts the ball in Leeds' court.
The table may say otherwise but the hosts are safe. They are four points clear of Birmingham who occupy the final relegation spot - the 50/1 odds on them going down shows their turnaround under Martí Cifuentes.
The past four home wins have come against Birmingham, Millwall, Preston and Rotherham, but they did secure a surprise victory away at Leicester at the beginning of March. Leeds will know this is a tough contest.
What are the best bets?
Defensive errors plagued Leeds' 4-3 win over Middlesbrough on Monday night, and you can look at goalkeeper Illan Meslier on at least two of them.
😍 "That's a magnificent goal!" pic.twitter.com/nf1OiGV4m1
— Leeds United (@LUFC) April 23, 2024
They did benefit from similar at the other end of the pitch but Daniel Farke will be disappointed with the manner of the opportunities they conceded, even if he will be happy with three points.
The Whites allowed Middlesbrough to enjoy the majority of possession and hit them on the counter - that is a huge strength of this Leeds side. You wonder if they'll look to do the same again here.
QPR have been seeing a lot of the ball in some of their home games too, but they have also had shots conceded down their left side.
Therefore, taking WILFRIED GNONTO TO HAVE 3+ TOTAL SHOTS provides appeal at 11/8.
Seven of his 17 starts this season have delivered at least three shots, and injuries means that he's likely to see a large majority of this game to hit the marker again.
Liam Millar had four shots from right wing-back when Preston visited Loftus Road on Saturday, Plymouth's Morgan Whittaker had four, with Birmingham's Juninho Bacuna also hitting the same marker - those all coming in QPR's last six games.
Gnonto will start out on Leeds' right, with Crysencio Summerville on the left, and we can expect this Leeds team to see shots towards goal - they've taken 72 across their last five outings.
Team news
QPR remain without three players for Friday's contest, with Michael Frey, Rayan Kolli and Taylor Richards all absent through injury.
Cifuentes may opt to go with an unchanged XI from the one that beat Preston last time out.
For Leeds, Daniel James has been ruled out after an oblique abdominal muscle tear during the latter stages of their game at Middlesbrough.
Patrick Bamford is also a major doubt, and while Mateo Joseph is pushing for a start, it's likely that they'll go with the experience of Joel Piroe up front.
They join defender Pascal Struijk on the sidelines.
Predicted line-ups
QPR XI: Begovic; Dunne, Cook, Clarke-Salter, Paal; Field, Colback; Willock, Andersen, Chair; Dykes.
Leeds XI: Meslier; Gray, Rodon, Ampadu, Firpo; Kamara, Gruev; Gnonto, Rutter, Summerville; Piroe.
Match facts
- Queens Park Rangers have won four of their last five home league games against Leeds United (L1), with all four of those victories coming alongside a clean sheet.
- Leeds United have won each of their last three league games against sides from London; the Whites haven’t won four such matches in succession since a run of five which ended in March 2006.
- Queens Park Rangers have won six of their last 12 league games (D3 L3), more than they’d managed to win in their previous 27 games combined (W5 D8 L14).
- Leeds United have won 27 league matches this season – one more win would equal their most league wins in a single campaign, winning 28 in 2019-20 under Marcelo Bielsa when they won the Championship.
- Crysencio Summerville has scored 19 league goals for Leeds United this season and is looking to become the first player since Chris Wood in 2016-17 (27) to net 20+ league goals in a season for the Whites. He also netted the winner in the 1-0 victory over QPR earlier this season, with Kemar Roofe the last Leeds player to net home and away against the Hoops in a season back in 2017-18.
Odds correct at 1445 BST (24/04/24)
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