- Jake's Predictions: Staked 362.75pts | Returned 384.30pts | P/L +21.55pts | ROI 6%
Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt Alexander Isak to score anytime in Liverpool vs Newcastle (20:15) at 9/4 (bet365)
1pt Trent Alexander-Arnold to be carded at 4/1 (Unibet)
Liverpool vs Newcastle
- Kick-off time: 20:15 GMT, Wednesday
- TV channel: TNT Sports 1
- Home 1/2 | Draw 18/5 | Away 9/2
Jimmy has already tipped Mo Salah to score at odds-against in his match preview for this one, a bet that we should all jump on.
The Egyptian has been in scintillating form all season long, scoring in 21 of 27 Premier League games, and Newcastle are far from the most solid defensive team.
Eddie Howe's side do pack a punch in attack though, and in ALEXANDER ISAK have their own in form forward, and the Swede should be backed TO SCORE ANYTIME at a huge 9/4.
Isak has scored in 14 of his last 17 Premier League appearances, netting 18 in total over that period, and over the course of the campaign is averaging 0.69 xG per 90, only slightly less than Salah (0.75), so will get opportunities at Anfield.
That's because the Reds haven't been as water-tight as earlier in the season, conceding in eight of their 12 home league games, with Wolves, Ipswich, Manchester United and Leicester all managing it in the last four outings.
Newcastle have created 1.69 xGF per game away from home, so should get on the scoresheet at least once on Wednesday. They scored three times in the reverse and twice in this game last season, with Isak on the scoresheet in both.
I'll also have a small bet on TRENT ALEXANDER-ARNOLD TO BE CARDED at 4/1.
Trent will be up against Anthony Gordon on Wednesday, and his card record against the flying winger suggests he really struggles to deal with him.
In the last five head-to-heads between Gordon and Trent, the Liverpool right-back has been booked four times.
It's obviously down to Gordon's directness and pace, and the fact he draws a lot of fouls, but is also likely down to an underlying rivalry between the pair, both being academy products from either side of the Merseyside divide.
Let's hope the run continues, and in referee Chris Kavanagh, we have a good appointment for card backers, with him averaging a whopping 5.92 cards per game across all competitions this season.
Score prediction: Liverpool 3-2 Newcastle (Sky Bet odds: 16/1)
West Ham vs Leicester
- Kick-off time: 20:00 GMT, Thursday
- TV channel: TNT Sports 1
- Home 3/5 | Draw 3/1 | Away 4/1
West Ham got their first real statement result under Graham Potter as they beat Arsenal at the Emirates last weekend, and while I'm sure they'll follow up here against a turgid Leicester team, I'm not willing to trust them to win by a wide margin, something we'd have to back if we were to get them onside given the 4/6 price.
In his three full seasons at Brighton, his football was not conducive to beating the bottom sides, winning just seven of 24 such contests, drawing a whopping 12 of those.
At home it was three wins and eight draws agains such opponents. While that was some time ago and Leicester are probably one of the worst teams we've ever see, it's enough to make me second guess, so it's just a watching brief on Thursday.
If you want a bet, do as Jimmy has recommended in his preview and back Jarrod Bowen to score anytime.
Score prediction: West Ham 2-1 Leicester (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Already advised
1.5pts Will Hughes to be carded in Palace vs Aston Villa (19:30) at 15/4 (bet365)
1pt Marshall Munetsi to score anytime in Wolves vs Fulham (19:30) at 6/1 (Unibet)
1.5pts Enzo Fernandez 4+ foul involvements in Chelsea vs Southampton (20:15) at 5/2 (Paddy Power)
2pts Over 2.5 goals in Brentford vs Everton (19:30) at 17/20 (Unibet)
1.5pts Ipswich or Draw (Double Chance) vs Man Utd (19:30) at 13/8 (Unibet)
0.5pts Ipswich to win at 11/2 (Unibet)
1pt Tottenham to beat Man City (19:30) at 23/10 (Unibet)
Oof. Last weekend was a tough one. A big loss with only two winning tips from 18 bets, effectively wiping out the profit made in the previous five columns.
Let's move swiftly on, and with a midweek round of Premier League matches this week, we have the chance to bounce back quickly.
Brighton vs Bournemouth
- Kick-off time: 19:30 GMT, Tuesday
- TV channel: TNT Sports 3
- Home 21/20 | Draw 13/5 | Away 11/5
This is a very tough game to call, with both sides looking good and challenging for European football. I'm going to go an official no bet here, but with a few small nods to fancies.
Georginio Rutter can be backed at 11/10 to commit 2+ fouls, something he has managed in six of his eight home starts this season, while his price of 5/1 for a card also nearly made the cut given Michael Oliver is in charge (5.0 cards per game all comps).
I was also tempted to back the upset, a Bournemouth win, given the Cherries exceptional underlying data away from home, but I can't trust them without Illia Zabarnyi, who was sent off at the weekend, and no recognisable replacement given Marcos Senesi is injured.
Score prediction: Brighton 1-1 Bournemouth (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Crystal Palace vs Aston Villa
- Kick-off time: 19:30 GMT, Tuesday
- TV channel: TNT Sports 2
- Home 12/5 | Draw 13 /5 | Away evens
My favourite bet of the week - WILL HUGHES TO BE CARDED.
The Palace midfielder has been booked nine times already this season, averaging 0.51 cards per 90, and he leads the league in fouls per 90 with 2.71.
On Tuesday he's up against a Villa midfield and front-line who draw a lot of fouls and cards, the likes of Morgan Rogers, Marco Asensio, Jacob Ramsey, Youri Tielemans, John McGinn and Marcus Rashford, and with a good refereeing appointment in Sam Barrott (4.55 cards per game), Hughes could find his way into the book.
The clincher for this bet is that Hughes is one card away from a two-match league suspension. That means timing is important for the Englishman, and should he get booked here he would miss games against Southampton and Ipswich before returning against Brighton in a big rivalry game.
He won't want to miss that game, so this bet almost makes too much sense at a big price. It's worth stressing here that with a yellow card against Villa he wouldn't miss Palace's FA Cup game this weekend, with it being a league only suspension unless he gets sent off on Tuesday.
Score prediction: Crystal Palace 1-1 Aston Villa (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
Wolves vs Fulham
- Kick-off time: 19:30 GMT, Tuesday
- TV channel: TNT Sports 4
- Home 7/4 | Draw 23/10 | Away 29/20
Wolves have pulled five points clear of the drop zone after beating Bournemouth at the weekend. Vitor Pereira has steadied the ship, making the Old Gold much more solid, while they do have plenty of flair in forward areas.
Flair isn't exactly the way I would describe new signing MARSHALL MUNETSI, but the former Reims man has caught the eye thanks to his positioning and just being a big old handful. Mainly a midfielder in France, Pereira has deployed the big number five as a striker, and while yet to score, his TO SCORE ANYTIME prices look too big.
The Zimbabwean came on as a striker at Anfield and caused massive problems for the league leaders, taking two shots including a one-on-one, while in 90 minutes at the weekend against Bournemouth he took another two shots and was on the end of another big chance.
In total, including an FA Cup cameo, Munetsi has taken seven shots, hitting the target twice, with his chances equating to 1.52 xG, all in just 159 minutes of football.
He's getting chances, and good ones, yet is still not being priced as a striker of a Premier League team that have been creating more chances of late. We can back him at 6/1, which looks massive.
Score prediction: Wolves 2-2 Fulham (Sky Bet odds: 12/1)
Chelsea vs Southampton
- Kick-off time: 20:15 GMT, Tuesday
- TV channel: TNT Sports 1
- Home 1/6 | Draw 13/2 | Away 11/1
Chelsea have won just two of their last 10 league games, one more than bottom of the table Southampton who visit Stamford Bridge on Tuesday. The Blues are flapping, big time, going from title contenders to looking likely to miss out on European football altogether, now sat in seventh.
Enzo Maresca's side are incredibly short in the 1X2, which says more about how bad Southampton are, but in terms of the betting, I'm drawn the Chelsea manager's namesake, ENZO FERNANDEZ to provide some value.
In particular, I'll back him in a couple of foul markets, with FERNANDEZ 4+ FOUL INVOLVEMENTS looking a huge price at 5/2. Foul involvements are fouls committed and fouls drawn combined.
Be it a switch in style, position or ask of the manager, Fernandez's foul involvements have sky rocketed of late.
In his first 14 league starts this season he averaged only 2.49 foul involvements per 90. In his last six league starts that average has more than doubled, up at 5.83 per 90.
This bet has landed in all six of those too, and with Southampton the third highest team for both fouls committed and fouls drawn when playing away from home this season, should go close again.
Score prediction: Chelsea 2-1 Southampton (Sky Bet odds: 17/2)
Brentford vs Everton
- Kick-off time: 19:30 GMT, Wednesday
- TV channel: TNT Sports (Red Button)
- Home evens | Draw 5/2 | Away 5/2
Goals should be on the agenda once again at the Gtech, and OVER 2.5 GOALS is generously priced at 17/20, with the general 4/5 also value.
The Bees have gone over the required goal line in nine of 13 home league games this season, with those games averaging 4.2 goals.
They have an array of attacking talent at their disposal, but remain defensively vulnerable, and Everton have shown much more attacking intent under David Moyes.
The Toffees have scored 14 times in his seven league games, averaging 1.69 xGF per game in that time, with Everton's games since his appointment averaging 3.14 goals.
It should be a ding-dong affair on Wednesday.
Score prediction: Brentford 3-2 Everton (Sky Bet odds: 20/1)
Manchester United vs Ipswich
- Kick-off time: 19:30 GMT, Wednesday
- TV channel: TNT Sports 4
- Home 1/2 | Draw 10/3 | Away 19/4
Manchester United were extremely poor yet again last weekend, being incredibly fortunate in more ways than one to escape Goodison Park with a point (xG: EVE 1.91 - 0.41 MUN).
Now they head back to Old Trafford, which has been the Theatre of Nightmares for the home side since Ruben Amorim took charge.
United have lost five of seven home league games under the Portuguese coach, and that stat alone makes the 8/15 about them here laughable.
IPSWICH will create chances here while United will continue struggle to do so, meaning I'm prepared to be bold and back them DOUBLE CHANCE at 13/8 while also having a nibble on their 11/2 price TO WIN.
There's no getting away from it that the three promoted teams are the three worst teams in the league, but I'd argue that this version of Manchester United are the fourth worst side in the division.
The stats backs that up too, as since Amorim's appointment, United have collected the fourth fewest points in the league (15).
Data-wise, it's not much better, collecting the fifth fewest expected points (xP) in that time, winning the xG battle in just four of 15.
It really is as bad as it seems.
Across their last 10 games, their underlying process has deteriorated further, averaging just 1.10 xGF per game and allowing 1.85 xGA per game.
So, when combining their awful home record, terrible recent process, a now lengthy injury list and more important upcoming games in the FA Cup (vs Fulham on Saturday) and Europa League (at Real Sociedad on Thursday), it's very easy to back against them.
As for the visitors, well they will be buoyed by the fact that they have fared better away from home this season, picking up 10 points from 12 games on the road as opposed to seven in 14 home matches.
When facing teams in eighth and below on their travels they have won two, drawn four and lost two, so have avoided defeat 75% of the time, and that includes matches against much better teams than United, the likes of Fulham, Brighton, Tottenham and most recently Aston Villa.
The Tractor Boys can at least avoid defeat here, especially with them seemingly better suited to playing in a deep block and counter attacking than playing more on the front foot, which is why they are much more dangerous on the road.
Price-wise, Ipswich went off at 4/1 at Forest and 5/1 at Fulham, yet are bigger here against a much poorer United team who have clearly been priced shorter based on reputation, so backing them to win is worth a nibble.
Score prediction: Manchester United 1-2 Ipswich (Sky Bet odds: 16/1)
Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal
- Kick-off time: 19:30 GMT, Wednesday
- TV channel: TNT Sports 2
- Home 14/5 | Draw 23/10 | Away 19/20
Nottingham Forest have all the hallmarks of a team that could fare well against Arsenal.
They are compact, well organised and good at defending set-pieces, so given the Gunners' injury woes in forward areas, it really wouldn't be a surprise to see them struggle to score on Wednesday.
But, with Arsenal's defence still extremely solid, it also wouldn't be a surprise to see Forest fire a blank.
Under 2.5 goals looks a solid proposition but is shortening. Having tipped it on the Betfair Football Only Bettor podcast at 4/5 on Monday, the fact it's now generally a 4/6 shot means it won't feature in this column, and ultimately, it's a no bet for me in this one.
Score prediction: Nottingham Forest 1-1 Arsenal (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Tottenham vs Manchester City
- Kick-off time: 19:30 GMT, Wednesday
- TV channel: TNT Sports 3
- Home 12/5 | Draw 13 /5 | Away evens
TOTTENHAM look a touch big TO WIN here at 23/10.
Yes, they aren't yet a full complement, but we've seen already the difference some rest has made to Ange Postecoglou's side, who have now won three league games on the bounce.
Spurs haven't been wholly convincing, granted, and have played a kind-ish schedule, but this City team continue to be there for the taking.
Pep Guardiola's side are still lacking energy, and continue to have major problems in transition - two things Spurs are excellent at.
The reigning Premier League champions have been utterly atrocious on the road for a long while now too, losing 10 of their last 15 away matches across all competitions, winning three against Ipswich, Leicester and Leyton Orient. Not exactly world beaters.
Across their last nine away league games, of which they have lost five, the Cityzens have conceded an average of 2.10 xGA per game. Yikes.
Spurs, while not quite fully fit defensively, are nearly full strength in attack, and possess more than enough firepower to really hurt a City team who also have major injury issues with John Stones, Manuel Akanji out, while Ruben Dias and Erling Haaland are doubtful.
And while it's not a stat that I put too much stock into, the fact that Spurs are City's bogey team can only be a positive as well. Tottenham have won five of the last seven home meetings with City, and have beaten them twice already this campaign.
Score prediction: Tottenham 2-1 Manchester City (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)
Super 6 predictions for round 41
- Crystal Palace 1-1 Aston Villa
- Chelsea 3-1 Southampton
- Nottingham Forest 1-1 Arsenal
- Tottenham 2-1 Manchester City
- Manchester United 1-2 Ipswich
- Liverpool 3-2 Newcastle
Tuesday's tips - odds correct at 1430 GMT (24/2/25)
Wednesday's tips - odds correct at 1800 GMT (25/2/25)
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