Our 2020/21 Premier League season preview package has the best antepost betting tips, outright, relegation and Golden Boot specials along with team previews.
Fulham v Arsenal
- Saturday 12.30pm BST | BT Sport 1
Infogol's Expected Goals Conceded metric had Fulham conceding nearly 12 more than they did last season. The 59.8 gives them the 10th best defensive record, as opposed to fourth in actual goals against, and that is a concern against a side who are getting stronger in attack.
Goals scored wasn't an issue and their xG figure is in line with their position in the table but the defensive side of Fulham's team remains a concern and a back-up left-back arriving isn't necessarily enough to address that right now.
Arsenal have defensive issues of their own with David Luiz battling to be fit while Shkodran Mustafi, Pablo Mari and Calum Chambers are all recovering from injuries of their own. It appears to be a contest where the odds-on price for both teams to score should be hit.
The visitors finished sixth in the 'over 3.5 match goals standings' last season and that trend should continue while they balance a few problems in the back line in the early stages of the new campaign.
Fulham 1-3 Arsenal (Sky Bet odds: 12/1)
Best bet: Over 3.5 goals at 2/1
Click here to read preview in full
Crystal Palace v Southampton
Saturday 3pm | BT Sport
Southampton have become a much stronger outfit though and they'll be targeting fixtures such as this for victory if they are to push for a top-seven finish. A better start to last season would have seen them easily in the top-half.
The Asian Handicap edges towards an away win with the Saints at -0.25. A tight contest could be expected but Southampton will justify their 29/20 price on victory if they pick up where they left off from the 2019/20 campaign.
The duo of Danny Ings and Che Adams will surely bring goals while they coped well without Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg's presence at the end of last season. This looks a well-balanced Southampton team and they can kick off the season with all three points at Selhurst Park.
Score prediction: Crystal Palace 0-1 Southampton (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
Best bet: Southampton to win at 29/20
Liverpool v Leeds
- Saturday 5.30pm BST | Sky Sports Premier League
One player to keep an eye on was a regular for Leeds in that title-winning season and that's Jack Harrison. He established himself as Bielsa's preferred choice on the left wing and he saw huge improvement in his second season under the Whites' boss.
He had direct involvement in 14 league goals during the 2019/20 campaign but his high number of total shots across the course of the campaign suggests there should have been more. His 54 was the third-most in this Leeds team, with left-back Stuart Dallas taking second spot.
Liverpool will justify their heavy odds-on price tag here but Leeds should give a good account of themselves. They may well grab a goal, although the value comes in the 9/4 price on Harrison having at least one shot on target in this contest.
Score prediction: Liverpool 3-1 Leeds (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)
Best bet: Jack Harrison to have 1+ shots on target at 9/4
Click here to read our preview in full
West Ham v Newcastle
- Saturday 8pm BST | Sky Sports Premier League
New players may be welcomed for Newcastle but they should have been in more of a relegation scrap last season. The Infogol xGD model had them as the second-biggest negative difference behind Norwich. Their actual GD should have been -29.6 but there was some luck involved in the defensive side of things.
Defence still looks an area of concern for Steve Bruce even with Lewis coming in at left-back and it'll be a battle for them to avoid being the worst xG side once again this season. West Ham have problems, but at least they can paper over some cracks by welcoming Newcastle to the London Stadium.
It doesn't appear likely to be a high-scoring contest but the money may be right in saying that West Ham will edge what could be a forgettable affair.
The Hammers are shades of odd-against with 6/5 the best price available on victory. Instead, though, backing a home win with under 3.5 goals in the match provides a much more appealing 15/8 with Sky Bet which is where the best bet can be found.
Score prediction: West Ham 1-0 Newcastle (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Premier League under/overs
Our friends at Infogol have used their xG model to predict whether the Premier League games this weekend will have goals or not.
West Brom v Leicester
- Sunday 2pm BST kick-off on Sky Sports
- Match Odds: Home 11/4 | Draw 13/5 | Away 19/20
Matheus Pereira is someone who has loved a potshot over a consistent period of time.
Across Pereira's whole career - 100 appearances in spells with Nurnberg, Chaves, Sporting and West Brom - his shots per game drops very slightly to 2.7, but the outside the area percentage jumps to 59%.
If only there was a packed Hawthorns screaming "shoooot" to bay him on on our behalf.
Maybe he'll hear us all through the TV.
Score prediction: West Brom 1-1 Leicester (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Best bets:
Super Sunday - Tottenham v Everton
- 1630 BST kick-off on Sky Sports
- Match Odds: Home 10/11 | Draw 11/4 | Away 7/2
Supporting Everton in the Double Chance market is fair enough at evens but my preferred play is the 17/20 available on the Super Sunday showdown banking in the Both Teams To Score column.
Everton aren’t accustomed to pocketing maximum points at Big Six sides, but they have grabbed a goal in half of their last 12 trips to the league’s elite. What’s more, BTTS has provided profit in 62% of Jose Mourinho’s league matches in charge at Spurs, with Everton returning a 60% win rate in the same market since Ancelotti arrived on Merseyside.
Elsewhere, I’m happy to have a small interest in Lucas Digne attempting 2+ shots at 100/30. The French full-back has fired in 63 attempts from 70 Premier League appearances since arriving at Goodison Park, and is regularly given set-piece duties. Meanwhile, only five sides faced more efforts at goal than Spurs last season.
Prediction: Tottenham 1-1 Everton (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
Best Bets: 2pts Both Teams To Score at 17/20
SL Accumulator
Head here to back Barnsley, Bristol City, Cardiff, Derby and Norwich all to win at 50/1 with Sky Bet
PREMIER LEAGUE SEASON PREVIEWS
Premier League outright
Will it be another two-horse race? Where is the value in the outright markets? Tom Carnduff delivers our Premier League outright preview with prices on Wolves, Southampton and Arsenal of particular appeal.
Premier League Golden Boot odds
Everyone loves the Golden Boot betting market, where prices seem generous if you've a serious opinion on one of the front-runners including Harry Kane, Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang and Mohamed Salah.
We've selected our favourite, but Tom Carnduff has also pulled out some huge value prices with two players backed at 33/1 and 150/1. Get involved before the prices go.
Premier League relegation betting
What goes up must come down, and it's a wide-open relegation race this season, with newcomers Leeds not expected to be anywhere near the drop zone, but fellow promoted sides Fulham and West Brom set to struggle.
There are question marks around several other sides though and Joe Townsend thinks he's solved the puzzle with 28/1 and 100/1 treble selections.
Premier League predictions
Our team have picked out who they think will win all of the big Premier League prizes that are on offer this season, while also digging out their best bets and value bets for the season.
So read on to find out who we think will be champions, who'll go down and who'll qualify for Europe, with some big-priced antepost fancies in here as well for good measure.
Sack Race: All eyes on Moyes
A decent squad, high expectations but a club ownership not shy of pulling the trigger - couple that with West Ham's fixture list to start the season and you can see why David Moyes could be in trouble.
Paul Higham looks at the managers in the hot seat to start the season, with Moyes looking the warmest of the lot!
Premier League antepost special bets
Andy Schooler has been through all the special antepost bets from around all the bookies to pick out the best value for the 2020/21 season. From Young Player of the Year value to points totals for three teams that are overpriced.
There are also goal targets for Jack Grealish and a couple of long-odds specials including Sheffield United.
How Liverpool could pay for not spending
Why should Liverpool have to sign a host of players after walking away with the Premier League last season? Well, the rest of the top sides are busy strengthening and spending big to catch up, while Jurgen Klopp hasn't really dipped into the Anfield coffers as yet.
Are the Reds in danger of getting left behind?
What counts as success for Man Utd?
Graham Ruthven explains that Ole Gunnar Solskjaer may well have over-achieved last season by finishing third, and that leaves him in a tricky spot when trying to improve this time around.
Can Chelsea become title challengers?
Roman Abramovich sensed his moment, with the majority of the football world struggling for cash during this pandemic, Chelsea's owner spotted a great opportunity to cut the gap and splash his wealth to supply Frank Lampard with a title-challenging squad.
Over £200m has been spent on some of the best talent around Europe, with Timo Werner looking like a bargain and Kai Havertz almost a club record signing. The big question now though, is how much of that huge gap to Liverpool and Man City can Chelsea close?
Post-lockdown lessons in xG
We asked the team at Infogol to use their expected goals model to see if there were any big takeaways from the football post-lockdown to get our teeth into.
They've come up with five things that point us towards some decent season-long bets thanks to xG proving that some things are not always what they seem...
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