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First Premier League manager to go odds: Roy Hodgson & David Moyes head list of sack race candidates ahead of 2020/21 season
Paul Higham looks at the first Premier League manager to go market and can't help but fear for David Moyes due to West Ham's opening fixtures.
With every new season comes renewed hope, optimism and excitement for what’s to come – that is until things start to go badly of course, and for Premier League managers that hope can be extinguished all too quickly.
This market’s for the more pessimistic among us but it’s a popular one and while we mostly spend pre-season talking about how clubs can get it right, there’s so much that can go wrong – and in a congested season like this one things could really get out of hand in a hurry.
The lack of crowd could help out a few managers, those struggling will be spared the boos and jeers and “you don’t know what you’re doing” chants that can often persuade boards and chairmen to pull the trigger, but it’s still a results game and those results will be in sharp focus with much of the bells and whistles surrounding the game taken away.
Simply backing whoever was Watford boss last season would have proved profitable, they were the first to act, sacking Javi Gracia in September, and they’d sacked his replacement Quique Sanchez Flores by December – don’t expect a similar story now the Hornets, who turned into a basket case of a club, have been relegated.
It’s hard to imagine much turnover at the big clubs – Arsenal and Tottenham sacked Unai Emery and Mauricio Pochettino within ten days of each other last November and now Mikel Arteta and Jose Mourinho, along with Frank Lampard and Ole Gunnar Solskjaer are all part of seemingly long-term projects.
Lampard you’d feel will be under the most pressure given the huge outlay Chelsea have made this summer – they’ve decided to go big while most other teams are counting their pennies, and they’ve got some bargains as a result.
First Premier League manager to go odds
- Moyes - 4/1
- Hodgson - 11/2
- Parker - 9/1
- Smith - 11/1
- Nuno - 12/1
- Bruce - 12/1
- Mourinho - 14/1
- Bilic - 14/1
Odds correct at 2000 BST on Wednesday September 9
Let’s see how itchy Roman Abramovich’s trigger finger is if they’re a distant ninth by Christmas, but barring something bizarre it’ll be one of the following who becomes the first managerial casualty.
It’s commonly known as the sack race but since it’s officially the ‘next Premier League manager to go’ there are a couple of names who you could see walking out on their club rather than being sacked – some at decent prices too.
The usual suspects
Roy Hodgson
Let’s start with the favourites and poor old Roy Hodgson has a raw deal at Crystal Palace – a club seemingly going nowhere and one that was desperately dull to watch last season, scoring just 31 goals in the league. They’re the only team to fail to score more than twice in a single game and not get relegated in Premier League history.
Eberechi Eze’s an exciting signing but it’ll probably mean Wilfried Zaha finally leaves, effectively putting them back to square one.
Last season’s form usually counts for nothing but this year’s different given the tiny gap in campaigns, so the fact the Eagles took four points after the restart and lost seven of their last eight is concerning.
They may well have been on the beach mentally, but broaden it out and the fact they picked up the fewest points in 2020 out of anyone in the league (16) and that’s a real problem. The one saving grace for Hodgson is that there genuinely seems to be a lack of ambition at Selhurst and they’re probably looking to just ride out this pandemic with survival the big aim again.
David Moyes
It’s not always managers of relegation strugglers who get sacked first – it’s the club with ambition who feels they’re way below where they should be that you have to watch out for. You throw in an ownership who doesn’t really have a vision for their team and who doesn’t mind sacking managers and you have the perfect storm for a managerial hot seat.
It doesn’t get much warmer than at West Ham, and if you take a look at their brutal run of opening fixtures then it’s very easy to see them sitting in the drop zone after seven games. In fact, if they fail to get three points on the opening day they're in big trouble as they'll be underdogs in the next six.
Moyes hasn’t exactly torn it up during either of his two short spells in charge, although he is consistent with an almost identical win percentage - tasting victory 15 times in 52 outings doesn’t inspire huge confidence.
Moyes' first West Ham spell: P31 W9 D10 L28 29% | Second spell: P21 W6 D5 L10 28.6%
West Ham fixtures: Newcastle (H) | Arsenal (A) | Wolves (H) | Leicester (A) | Tottenahm (A) | Man City (H) | Liverpool (A)
The Hammers beat Norwich and Watford to get out of trouble last season but it looked close for a while, and West Ham won’t want to run it anywhere near that close again. While they're not expected to win many of their opening fixtures, heavy defeats will heap pressure on Moyes.
He’s the one to back in this field.
Steve Bruce
An interesting side note is Newcastle visit West Ham on the opening day, but while that’s almost a must-win for the Hammers given their fixtures, Bruce’s men have a few more friendly fixtures dotted around their start to ease themselves into the season.
You’ve got to feel for Bruce with all the uncertainty about the on-off takeover talks, but he's had a huge boost towards the end of the summer with Mike Ashley stumping up to sign Callum Wilson, Ryan Fraser and Jamal Lewis.
That puts a totally different picture on their prospects this season, and there's now genuine optimisim on Tyneside that they at least won't be invovled in the relegation battle.
Ironically though it could put more pressure on Bruce to deliver, but that's a much better pressure than having no signings and fighting against the drop. With Newcastle, though, we’ve come to expect the unexpected.
The (almost) untouchables
Just a word on a few of the leading names in the frame who seem, to me at least, to be relatively secure in their positions. Dean Smith isn’t too far down the list, but keeping Villa up has given him plenty of credit in the bank and there was more than just a suggestion that he we just getting his side into gear down the stretch.
Signing Ollie Watkins will help.
Scott Parker deserves a decent run given the way he got Fulham back into the division at the first time of asking - a new three-year contract suggests he'll get it - while Slaven Billic also seems to have the faith of his bosses at West Brom.
Graham Potter falls into this category too, as Brighton struggled last season but they were changing their style and the club feel Potter is the man to do that – he’ll get time to show his workings as he looks to transform them into ball-playing Premier League regulars.
The outsiders who could walk
If it was just down to approval ratings from fans, Marcelo Bielsa would be 1000/1 at least to leave Leeds, the fact he’s not and as short as 12/1 is purely down to him not officially signing a new contract with the Premier League newcomers as yet.
That seems like just a formality though, so if you’re looking for value and thinking this enigmatic manager might throw in a curve ball and leave, you’re most likely barking up the wrong tree here with the Argentine looking well set at Elland Road.
Instead, there are two more intriguing contenders here. Sean Dyche being a real fascinating storyline at Burnley and Nuno Espirito Santo apparently ‘stalling’ on a new deal at Wolves.
Dyche getting Burnley into Europe a few years ago was incredible, but getting them to finish 10th last season may have been even better given their continual lack of investment in the squad to any kind of level. They’re punching miles above their weight and Dyche keeps on producing.
🍷 Sean Dyche has done wonders with Burnley, but could a continued lack of transfer funds see him walk away from Turf Moor this season?pic.twitter.com/1QRT399HVc
— Sporting Life Football (@SportingLifeFC) September 2, 2020
Simply how or why he’s not mentioned with bigger jobs is beyond comprehension. For the first time though, he’s started to look a bit disgruntled by the lack of spending power at Turf Moor – he’s been happy playing the underdog for a while now but five seasons in the Premier League should result in him being able to buy some better players.
That frustration may boil over and come to a head sooner than we think, making him a serious contender to go first here if patience is heeded elsewhere with manager sackings.
Nuno stalling on a new Wolves deal is a worrying sign – and it’d be a shame if he broke his ties with the club after the journey they’ve been on together. That journey has been well financed but now the money is drying up and after the longest of long seasons he’s been unable to strengthen.
📝 Nuno Espirito Santo's contract situation
— Sporting Life Football (@SportingLifeFC) August 27, 2020
❌ No new signings
🔜 Matt Doherty closing in on Spurs move
🇲🇽 Raul Jimenez attracting interest
🇪🇸 Adama Traore also linked with other clubs
🗓 Premier League season just over two weeks away.
🐺 Are you worried, Wolves fans? #WWFC pic.twitter.com/McscEawaG0
The Portuguese knows that with no European football this term his side could make a real run at the top four if they could invest again, but having been punished for Financial Fair Play breaches they have to keep their budget down this summer.
If they lose Raul Jimenez or Adama Traore then that could be too much for Nuno to stomach having already seen Matt Doherty depart, and he could well walk. His odds range from 12/1 to 40/1 reflecting the uncertainty around his position, but he may just spring a huge surprise.
Odds correct as of 1423 BST on 02/09/20