Premier League betting stats & tips: Previews, stats and best bets for matchday four of the Premier League

Three weeks down and we're getting to know a bit more about how the Premier League is shaping up for the season - Liverpool look like the team to beat again, Fulham look like the team everyone can beat, and if in any doubt when it comes to betting strategy, back a penalty!

Brave readers of last week's column would have been richly rewarded if taking Leicester to spring a shock at Man City, more sensible ones will have more likely taken either 13/5 on Leicester/draw on the double chance or got slight odds-against on the Foxes (+2) on the handicap.

Jack Grealish also rewarded us with a goal at Fulham, while if you're backing penalties in the big games then you won't go too far wrong, but the bookies are catching us up! Here we try and pick out some value betting pointers and some trends to watch out for this weekend.

Will penalty run continue?

We bang on about penalties and handball but the numbers are there for all to see, 20 in just 28 Premier League games is some return, even with the three at Man City padding out those stats.

This ridiculous new handball rule did give us some route to profits with it now raining penalties with a combination of this law, VAR, and the general lack of decent defending, but could all the noise being made around it dampen down the numbers?

Referees aren't locked away in huts when not taking charge of games you know, so they'll all see and hear what's being said, and that will no doubt go through their minds when they're watching the pitchside monitors for an ultra slow-motion video of a flailing arm coming into contact with the ball.

I'd still say for now it's worth small stakes investments in penalties or penalty takers, but be selective with your choices as the layers have Sky Sports and BT as well, so have reacted accordingly.

For instance, we wrote in our Talking Points at the weekend that you could get 6/4 on a penalty in the upcoming Leeds v Man City game, already much shorter than the usual due to both teams' penalty records and way of playing.

That's now 11/10...

Everton v Brighton looks another decent penalty game with both sides having penalty incidents recently and plenty of players who like to get into the box and run with the ball, but again the initial 21/10 has become 13/8. Pens are still worth a place on the shortlist, but profits are getting squeezed.

Riding the DCL hot streak

Five goals in three games is some return, but it's no real surprise that Dominic Calvert-Lewin is prospering under Carlo Ancelotti this season, as he's hit a new gear ever since the Italian took charge.

Since Ancelotti’s first game at Everton, no player has scored more than Calvert-Lewin’s 13 Premier League goals. Crucially as well, for punters anyway, DCL (as we'll now call him) is one of those strikers that loves going on a run - he bagged eight in 10 games before the shutdown.

Everton were poor post-lockdown, but Ancelotti has added players that can all supply, and again crucially his team formation and gameplan all ends up with DCL as the focal point - all 12 of his efforts at goal this season have come from inside the box, with five of those being headers.

Our own Joe Townsend points out that Calvert-Lewin has scored 13 goals in 14 'real' games for Everton - if you take out those post-lockdown efforts. And I think it's fair enough to put a line through those games given the circumstances and Everton's collective downing of tools.

I'd back him to score against Brighton on Saturday, at 13/10 you don't want him any shorter but it pays to ride the hot streaks when they come. Brighton have conceded six this season, given away plenty of chances, and more importantly are not too hot on set pieces.

The Toffees have superb delivery with Lucas Digne and James Rodriguez around, so after nodding in twice already this term backing Calvert-Lewin to score a header looks like a decent route.

Robbo to the rescue

We always like to bring you the best stats, analysis and insight we can, and while there's a bit of that here, looking at Andy Robertson in the goalscorer market is not exactly nap of the day territory, but it does have some basis behind it.

First and foremost a glance at Liverpool's heat maps will show you how far forward Robertson and Trent Alexander-Arnold are based. Secondly, they're facing an Aston Villa side who have yet to concede a goal this season, so will be tough to break down.

Central areas will be packed and out wide is where whatever space there is will be found.

The main point is, however, statistical. Robertson's form recently shows seven goal involvements in his last eight league games (two goals and five assists). So backing him for an assist here makes good practical sense.

Also, only two defenders have had more shots than Robertson this season (Alexander-Arnold and Virgil van Dijk) so taking 11/1 on him scoring against Villa is the Hollywood bet for those happier to take a risk - but the omens are there after he scored against Arsenal on Monday, and incidentally bagged at Villa Park last season.

Leeds to get stuck in

We had a good piece of advice last week in keeping away from Leeds in the tackles market, but they'll come steaming back into it this week against Man City. They 'only' made 13 against Sheffield United last week but they still top the Premier League charts with 69.

They made 22 against Fulham and a whopping 34 against Liverpool - Leicester needed to make 23 against Man City in their 5-2 win so back Marcelo Bielsa's side to get stuck in again at the mid-20s once the tackle markets open.

Speaking of Leeds, they were 9/1 originally to spring a huge upset, but when the bookies digested the Leicester result they've now been trimmed to 7/1. It's hard to believe City will slip-up again, but the dynamic of Pep Guardiola facing his managerial idol is a fascinating sub-plot to this particular Premier League saga.

We've mentioned that the penalty odds have been cut but there's expected to be bags of goals in this one - the best bet of which looks to be both teams to score & over 3.5 goals at around 5/4. That bet's come off in four of the five games these two have played in - and the Sheffield United game can be written off as games involving the Blades have the lowest goal count in the league.

Premier League stats leaders

Tackles

• 16 - Tyrick Mitchell
• 14 - Luke Ayling | James McArthur
• 12 - Stuart Dallas | Allan
• 11 - Richarlison | N'Golo Kante | Kalvin Phillips

Tyrick Mitchell is the top tackler in the Premier League, but perhaps not many are aware of that fact just yet and that could provide us with some profit this weekend. He's 8/13 to make four tackles, something he's done in all three games this season.

His tackle count reads six, four, six and with his Crystal Palace side facing Chelsea, who have pace in attack out wide and certain similarities to the Everton, Southampton and Man Utd sides they've faced so far, he'll almost certainly be able to keep up that average. That makes 11/8 on him making five tackles or more well worth investing in.

Shots

• 17 - Mohamed Salah
• 13 - Richarlison | Sadio Mane | Aleksandar Mitrovic
• 12 - Michail Antonio | Harvey Barnes | Dominic Calvert-Lewin | Harry Kane

Some usual suspects in this one, but Michail Antonio and Harvey Barnes are interesting as Leicester face West Ham on Saturday - so expect shots to be raining in everywhere.

Antonio has scored once this season but he's been involved plenty with 12 shots, two big chances missed and he's also hit the woodwork once. His 15/8 to score is worth looking at but I'd be loading up on shots at around three or four given his average, while he's on 1.7 shots on target per 90 mins played.

Harvey Barnes is a vastly underrated player and I really like the way he runs hard with the ball, can pick a pass and also goes by players - he's overshadowed by James Maddison at Leicester but he's more than a handy player.

Barnes has had 12 shots but no player has had more on target this season than his seven, so likewise he's worth investing in for both shots and shots on target. He's scored once already and is 9/4 to find the net again.

Odds correct as of 1218 on 30/9/20

Related football content

• Transfer Market: Latest updates
• Transfer Window: Done deals
• Latest football previews and tips
• Sporting Life App: Android & iOS

Responsible gambling

We are committed in our support of responsible gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.

If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133, or visit begambleaware.org.

Further support and information can be found at GamCare and gamblingtherapy.org.