Premier League Talking Points & Punting Pointers: Handballs, penalties, VAR, Manchester United and Chelsea

Just another quiet weekend in the Premier League then….

We’ve had mayhem over VAR, goals scored and matches won after the full-time whistle and the new handball directive being roundly slammed as “ruining football” and that all came before Leicester demolished Man City 5-2!

Fragile Fulham as good as down?

Paul Higham

As far as wildly early takes go, making season predictions after just three games is pretty wild, but the manner of Fulham's three defeats make it impossible to ignore the fact they just look massively out of their depth.

They spent £100m last time and ended up going down, and behind the scenes they don't seem to have learned their lesson - not going on owner Tony Kham taking to Twitter after their 3-0 reverse to Aston Villa to claim they were still trying to sign new players. It smacked of desperation.

He also blasted his current defenders as a result, but even manager Scott Parker found it hard to defend his team for being so "fragile" and far too easy to score against.

The 10 goals Fulham have conceded is the second most a Premier League team has ever allowed in the first three games, with only West Brom's 11 from their three games this season being worse. The Baggies showed against Chelsea though that they could have enough spirit and guile to stand a chance.

The Cottagers, though, seem devoid of any cohesion, togetherness and fighting spirit, there's a lot of last season's Norwich about them and if they're not careful they'll just sleepwalk right back down into the Championship.

They're 4/11 favourites for relegation, and one bookmaker has already paid out on them going down - after just three games! That just about says it all about their start.

Handball rule ruining the game

Paul Higham

Credit Jose Mourinho for merely turning and storming down the tunnel when Callum Wilson dispatched a 97th-minute penalty to give Newcastle that undeserved point at Tottenham. We should get used to all this action going on well beyond the 90 minutes I suppose but it still wrangles somewhat with traditionalists.

Not as much as this new handball rule wrangles though – Jamie Carragher says it’s ruining football and it’s hard to disagree. Look, we know that the lawmakers are trying to make it easier for refs by trying to make it a black or white decision, but handball just can’t and shouldn’t be judged that way.

Here’s the thing, you have to work so hard to score a goal in the Premier League, just ask Sheffield United, and there’s no better chance than a penalty, so why should a team get such an opportunity to score for a ball hitting the arm of a player not even looking the right way.

Eric Dier was in mid-air, going for a header, there’s no way that should ever result in a penalty. The replays on the pitch-side monitors don’t really help either, as slow motion only exaggerates arm placement and movement making it look far more like a handball than at full speed.

Roy Hodgson was raging on Saturday, Mourinho on Sunday, who knows what’ll happen next? This rule needs changing, and changing fast. It’ll soon ruin a big game, a cup tie or Champions League contest.

Paying out on pens

Paul Higham

This ridiculous new handball rule does, however, give us some route towards profits as it’s now raining penalties with a combination of this law, VAR, and the general lack of decent defending seeing spot kicks being awarded all over the place.

The three Man City conceded against Leicester bolster the numbers, but it’s still 20 spot-kicks after just 28 Premier League games so far and they’re heading for a record number over the season if this continues – and it won’t even be close.

So going forward it will pay to have a dabble in the penalty markets, paying special attention for any wrinkles or trends for certain matches.

Everton v Brighton next Saturday for instances, with both sides having penalty incidents recently and plenty of players who like to get into the box and run with the ball. Yet 21/10 on some early shows for there to be a penalty in the match.

Man City just gave Leicester three penalties, Leeds gave Liverpool two and yet for their game next week there’s 6/4 around for a penalty there – with so much attacking intent on show that looks a decent bet in this new age of penalties.

Pep under pressure

Paul Higham

This was a bad, bad loss for Pep Guardiola, the first time one of his teams have shipped five goals in his entire management career – and if anything the manner of the defeat was even worse than the result.

Guardiola has serious questions to answer for perhaps the first time in his career with his defence yet again all over the place, and with big injuries also hurting them they’ve now been replaced by champions Liverpool as the favourites to win the Premier League this season.

The Reds can go six points clear if they can beat Arsenal on Monday night – they raced eight points clear after eight games last season and Man City clearly gave up the ghost. Another slow start could cost City again.

Ruben Dias may be the answer if City snap him up, but that’ll take Guardiola’s spending on defenders to over £400m and he’s hardly got anything to show for that bar Aymeric Laporte – having him back will be a huge help though.

Problems lay beyond just the defence though, as in truth they were regularly hung out to dry by a lack of collective defending and that desire to get back into shape and help out. All too often Leicester could get in behind the midfield and run at the City backline, for any defender that’s a nightmare and Pep’s bunch just don’t have the discipline to jockey, usher players away and wait for help – they dive in, give themselves away and give up either glaring chances or, on Sunday, penalties and goals.

Leicester provided an obvious blueprint for beating City – sit back, but be brave on the ball, beat the initial press then attack quickly with pace and run at those defenders. Next up for Man City? Marcelo Bielsa’s lively Leeds United.

The master to Guardiola’s apprentice, Bielsa’s side have all those attributes - they have pace, confidence and skill on the ball and have already given Liverpool all they could handle at Fortress Anfield with fast breaks coming from Kalvin Phillips knocking balls for Jack Harrison and Helder Costa to run on to.

Leeds are 9/1 to win at Elland Road (Leicester were 9/1 in places to win on Sunday) and the bookies are clearly expecting goals with over 2.5 goals being as short as 4/11 and even over 3.5 being odds-on at 10/11.

If you don’t fancy a Leeds shock, both teams to score and over 3.5 goals at 11/8 probably makes the most appeal at this early stage, although the way Man City defended on Sunday it’s hard to argue against Leeds scoring twice coming in at a healthy 3/1.

Saturday's Talking Points

VAR shouldn't referee games

Tom Carnduff

VAR took centre stage once again as Manchester United secured a 3-2 victory against Brighton in Saturday's early kick-off. An overturned penalty decision, combined with the hosts hitting the woodwork five times, means Ole Gunnar Solskjaer's side can consider themselves lucky to have secured all three points.

Early in the second half, Aaron Connolly went down under a challenge from Paul Pogba. Chris Kavanagh pointed to the spot and showed the Frenchman a yellow card. It looked a soft decision but ultimately one that is often given.

That's the key point to this; it was soft. However, does that make wrong? Not at all. After consultation with the VAR, Kavanagh overturned his decision and Brighton's chance to re-take the lead had gone.

VAR was a problem last season but there's a belief it's starting to get better. Some even described that moment as the 'perfect' example of how the technology should be used. The real issue is that when it starts to officiate games, rather than highlight clear and obvious errors, it's not being utilised correctly.

So while the penalty decision could be viewed as 'soft', Connolly wasn't deliberately tripped rather his cleverness forced a foul, VAR should be in place to highlight where those clear errors have been made; in this case it wasn't and Kavanagh allowed the VAR to do his job for him.

It's getting beyond frustrating. It may have been problematic at times last season, but we now seem to be allowing it to make decisions as opposed to supporting them. It's unfortunately impacted how referees officiate the game, which is having an overall negative effect.

Based on early showings, the odds-against prices available on VAR overturning a decision in the specials section of each match is worth consideration. It seems a shift in mentality, alongside the use of the pitchside monitor, is altering how it works.

Oh, and don't get me started on giving a decision after the full-time whistle.

What is a defender supposed to do?

Tom Carnduff

If there wasn't enough drama in the first game we had to wait just 40 minutes for another bizarre incident when Everton were awarded a penalty in their clash with Crystal Palace.

Palace defender Joel Ward survived one lengthy VAR check after the ball struck the sleeve of his arm, which was down by his side. He wasn't afforded a second let-off for another block, this time for a header from Lucas Digne.

Now this isn't necessarily a VAR point, or even to do with the referee Kevin Friend, they are simply applying the laws of the game as they have been told to. In this case though, it's baffling as to what the defender is meant to do.

Ward's arm is barely out beside his body and crucially facing downwards. His momentum from trying to get across towards the ball will always leave a trailing arm or leg. If the ball strikes his arm, during a natural movement of shuffling across, the decision will always be given against him.

It's becoming a consistent trait in this season's Premier League; see Leeds defender Robin Koch at Anfield and Spurs' Matt Doherty against Southampton for just two further examples. It's going to be another frustrating theme as the season progresses. With a desire for more penalties combined with the new rules, a defender just can't win.

Of course, entertainment always comes with goals but that shouldn't mean that we sacrifice options available to the defenders to achieve that. These incidents aren't deliberate; we don't need to debate what is or isn't the 'body line'.

We're quickly learning that when a referee heads towards the pitchside monitor we are going to see a significant decision whatever happens, it almost feels like a pressure to give something, but this law needs amending for the good of the game.

Calvert-Lewin the key for Carlo

Joe Townsend

Everton fans were understandably excited by the arrival of James Rodriguez just prior to the start of the season, excitement that has so far proven to be justified. The attacking midfielder has turned in noteworthy displays in all three of the Toffees’ Premier League games, with Sporting Life followers rewarded by his 10/1 strike from distance against West Brom.

But while the collective £70m that was spent on Rodriguez, Allan and Abdoulaye Doucoure was billed as the injection of quality Carlo Ancelotti’s side needed to take them to the next level, it’s a man they signed for just £1.5m from Sheffield United in 2016 who has perhaps been most crucial to them winning their opening five fixtures for the first time since 1938.

Dominic Calvert-Lewin’s early goal at Crystal Palace was his fifth in the top flight already this term, adding to his opening-day header against Tottenham and hat-trick in the 5-2 demolition of West Brom.

Since Ancelotti’s first game in charge of Everton, no player has scored more than Calvert-Lewin’s 13 Premier League goals. His Boxing Day strike against Burnley triggered a run of form which saw the Toffees striker net eight times in 10 matches.

After the three-month hiatus, the Everton team that returned from lockdown was a far cry from the one we had seen in the initial three months of Ancelotti’s tenure. As their season pitifully petered out, Calvert-Lewin failed to score in nine Project Restart fixtures.

In a Toffees team that’s functioning, he is the perfect nine: strong in the air, mobile and with the pace to run in behind. He can adapt to any game situation, but most importantly it is he who is adapting to his Italian manager's style by focusing more energy on the width of the 18-yard box.

It might sound like I’m reaching to write-off Calvert-Lewin's post-lockdown barren run, but I genuinely feel it's worth ignoring. Without those dead-rubber fixtures, his return under a ‘real’ Ancelotti Everton is 13 goals from 14 games.

He is 13/1 to finish as the Premier League’s top scorer this season, which can be backed each-way with Betfair and Paddy Power at ¼ odds to place in the top four.

In the short-term, Everton’s next league match sees them host Brighton. Albion were superb in a cruel defeat against Manchester United, but there is no escaping the fact that they struggle to defend at set-pieces.

It was the case against Chelsea on the opening weekend too, so when the market opens to back Calvert-Lewin to score a headed goal it’s worth consideration.

From an Everton perspective, their start to the season is worth getting excited about.

It's no surprise to see their price for a top-four finish cut to 6/1 across the board after winning their first three league games for the first time since 1993 - ante-post their price peaked at 20/1.

Fightback hides Frank's failings

Joe Townsend

Frank Lampard has readily admitted that this summer’s hefty outlay on new players has raised expectation levels at Stamford Bridge.

A creditable fourth-place finish in his maiden season in charge, while restricted by a transfer ban, was certainly something to build on, but the problems Chelsea suffered in 2019/20 have not been solved by £250m of spending. What is more, I’m yet to find someone who thought they would be.

The sheer ease at which West Brom cut through the Blues at The Hawthorns must surely have been sending Roman Abramovich ballistic in the fashion we became accustomed to seeing when the Russian billionaire was a more regular attendee in west London. His reputation for dispensing with under-performing managers will have had Lampard shifting uncomfortably in his own chair too.

Tammy Abraham's injury-time equaliser completed Chelsea's fightback to secure a 3-3 draw, but it changes nothing in the long-run. A point at West Brom would never be considered good enough, never mind when it featured a first-half performance, they trailed 3-0 at the break, that was such an abomination.

Lampard has, pretty successfully, managed to shift a large proportion of the blame for Chelsea’s poor defensive record – they conceded more goals last season than in any other Premier League campaign – on to his players. Kepa has been singled out the most, and in fairness the world’s most expensive goalkeeper has been little short of appalling since arriving from Athletic Bilbao in 2018. But the problems run much deeper.

While the Blues legend was recruited as the perfect placeholder while Chelsea couldn’t sign any players, his knowledge of the club’s youngsters from his time as an academy coach would allow them to be blooded effectively and his status would mean more patience from supporters during a period of transition, it is no longer the case.

If Chelsea drop off, as they did against Liverpool, they are picked off. Long before Andreas Christensen’s red card did they look a poor team last weekend. Press, as they tried to at times against West Brom, and they leave gaping holes. It shouldn’t be forgotten that they were outplayed and fortunate to beat Brighton on the opening weekend too.

Lampard’s solution to their defensive shortcomings appears to have been signing a goalkeeper and a centre-half, when actually the problems need to be solved by coaching. Liverpool and Manchester City may have the best players in the division, but they also have the best coaches, and a defined way of playing – what is Chelsea’s?

It would be no shock to see Abramovich make a quick decision and dispense with Lampard. As brutal as it may be, he simply lacks the required coaching knowledge to mould this group into a top-class team.

Next up is a trip to Tottenham in the Carabao Cup on Tuesday, whose involvement in a Europa League play-off two days later may see the game fall down their list of priorities and give Lampard the opportunity to ease some pressure by pinching a win.

In terms of Premier League action, they host Crystal Palace next weekend. Roy Hodgson’s team began the campaign with wins over Southampton and Manchester United, and were unlucky to lose a thrilling contest with Everton on Saturday.

They have discovered a new goal-scoring touch, and yet are 3/1 to score twice against this porous Chelsea outfit.

Palace are 6/1 to win and a huge 15/8 in the double chance. With an international break following that fixture, a bad result could mean the end for Lampard.

This could be the moment to take him in the sack race betting.

Odds correct at 1900 BST (26/09/20)

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