Bournemouth may have edged out Brentford in the first leg, but Joe Rindl is backing the Bees to reach Wembley.
The play-offs aren’t kind to Brentford. In all of their nine attempts the club has failed to get promoted through them, including an agonising extra-time Championship play-off final loss to rivals Fulham last season.
They’re 10th go has already got off to a bad start with a 1-0 loss in the first leg of their semi-final away to Bournemouth.
In front of 2,000 home fans the visitors stuttered with just one shot on target, although there’s still a feeling of what could have been had Bryan Mbeumo not poked narrowly wide from six yards out.
Bournemouth have already seen the other two sides they were relegated with return to the promised land of the Premier League through automatic promotion. With a slender lead they’ll be hoping to take one step further to making it a hat-trick.
Kick-off time: 12:30 BST, Saturday
TV channel: Sky Sports Football
We’ll start our analysis with the Cherries who were the out-of-form side coming into the play-offs. Jonathan Woodgate’s team finished the season with three straight defeats which worryingly included a 1-0 loss to the Bees.
Although by that point of the campaign the south coast outfit had already confirmed their spot in the top six and had no hope of catching the top two.
A sixth-place finish with a squad that can rely on Jack Wilshere, Dominic Solanke and Shane Long is a major underachievement, but all would be forgiven with promotion.
Should I back Brentford?
Despite their play-off near misses, Brentford can take some heart from the fact they turned around a 1-0 loss to Swansea in their play-off semi-final last year with a convincing 3-1 second-leg win.
Over the course of the season, the Bees have shown themselves to be the strongest of the four teams based on expected goals (xG), second only to champions elect Norwich in terms of scoring opportunities created, while also boasting the best defence in the league.
What is expected goals (xG)?
- Expected goals (xG) is a metric that measures the quality of any given scoring opportunity
- Expected goals for (xGF) is the xG created by a team
- Expected goals against (xGA) is xG conceded by a team
They may have had an off day last time out but my mind keeps on returning to their impressive display in a 1-0 win at Bournemouth last month. The west London outfit dominated proceedings, winning the xG battle 2.63 to 0.61 despite being reduced to 10-men after 50 minutes.
We tipped Brentford to reach the play-off final in our outright preview and it’s a punt I’m still interested in with BRENTFORD TO QUALIFY at 9/5 with Betway.
Brentford v Bournemouth best bets and score prediction
- 2pts Brentford to qualify at 9/5
Score prediction: Brentford 2-0 Bournemouth (Sky Bet odds: 8/1)
Odds correct at 1800 BST (19/05/21)
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