Swansea won the first leg 1-0 at Oakwell, and Jake Osgathorpe is siding against goals in the second leg too.
The first leg at Oakwell was one of little quality in attacking areas, I think we would all agree on that.
It was Swansea though who nicked a 1-0 win, meaning they have the advantage heading into their home leg of the play-off semi-final.
Kick-off time: 18:30 BST, Saturday
TV channel: Sky Sports Football
Steve Cooper’s side didn’t deserve to win the first leg according to expected goals (xG), as they created chances equating to just 0.34 xG, with Barnsley winning that particular battle with 1.06.
The Tykes’ figure was far from impressive, though they were the team to create the best chance of the game with an xG of 0.41, one that was squandered by Callum Brittain.
What is expected goals (xG)?
- Expected goals (xG) is a metric that measures the quality of any given scoring opportunity
- Expected goals for (xGF) is the xG created by a team
- Expected goals against (xGA) is xG conceded by a team
All in all, that first leg went as many expected; tight and cagey with little goalmouth action.
Should we expect anything different here? Unfortunately, I think not.
Back against goals again
Throughout the regular 46-game season, both Swansea and Barnsley ranked inside the top eight based on expected goals against (xGA), meaning they were among the best defensive sides in the league.
The league average attack racked up around 1.13 non-penalty xGF per game, which shows that Swansea (1.04) and Barnsley (1.15) were in and around the average when it came to creating chances.
Their strengths were firmly in keeping teams out, and the first leg showcased exactly that.
So, with two strong defences again going head-to-head against mediocre attacking units, I’m expecting defence to come out on top again.
Under 2.5 Goals looks likely, but at a price of 8/11, I’m happy to go in another direction.
BTTS ‘NO’ can backed at even money, and this would land as long as we don’t see both Swansea AND Barnsley score.
While game state could threaten this bet, with Barnsley needing to chase, I can’t turn this price down, especially as BTTS ‘no’ has landed in 62% of Swansea’s Championship matches this season and in over half of Barnsley’s (52%).
Swansea v Barnsley best bets and score prediction
- 2pts BTTS 'no' at evens (BetVictor)
Score prediction: Swansea 0-1 Barnsley (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Odds correct at 1620 BST (19/05/21)
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