Blackpool and Lincoln City meet at Wembley on Sunday, with Championship football the prize for the winner. Michael Beardmore has best bets and a preview.
Football betting tips: Blackpool v Lincoln
1pt Lincoln under 0.5 goals at 12/5 (RedZone)
1pt Ellis Simms to outscore opposition at 5/1 (Sky Bet)
Okay, it’s not quite the £150m game, or whatever this year’s figure is, that the Sky Bet Championship play-off final is frequently touted as, but the third-tier showpiece is pretty important too.
And, quite often, with slightly less pressure and fewer millions of pounds attached, it ends up being far more entertaining than its more illustrious counterpart.
Over the past eight years the League One play-off final has averaged three goals a game – and that’s just in normal time – so the question is: can Blackpool and Lincoln provide another thriller this year?
Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Sunday
TV channel: Sky Sports Main Event
Blackpool 13/10 | Draw 21/10 | Lincoln 21/10
League One's clean sheet kings collide
Their tendencies over the season as a whole would suggest not – Blackpool kept 22 clean sheets in 46 games, the most in League One, with Lincoln not far behind on 20.
Including the first-leg of their play-off semi-final, the Seasiders claimed five straight shut-out wins – and they only conceded two goals across their final eight regular-season games. TWO!
Lincoln, meanwhile, have blown hot and cold defensively, frequently shutting teams out but prone to falling apart a bit when they do concede – so I can see why Blackpool are the bookies’ favourites.
Blackpool came through a fairly madcap semi with Oxford 6-3 on aggregate but those two-legged ties are often laws unto themselves.
After establishing a 3-0 first-leg advantage, Blackpool’s concentration perhaps lapsed at Bloomfield Road in the return but I think they will be back to their usual stingy selves at Wembley.
You can get 14/5 on a Blackpool win to nil but I prefer the 12/5 on LINCOLN TO SCORE UNDER 0.5 GOALS with RedZone as that gives us an insurance policy in case the 90 minutes ends goalless.
It’s basically a bet on the Seasiders to keep a clean sheet but that is generally priced at 13/8 so the 12/5 on offer with RedZone for the same outcome, just differently named, seems a no-brainer.
Given the aforementioned shut-outs stat and the fact that Blackpool had the best defensive record in the division, conceding just 37 goals in 46 games, a price of more than 2/1 on a clean sheet is big.
On-loan Everton striker the man in form
All the signs point to a tight and tense affair but the Seasiders have recently discovered their shooting boots and I fancy them to nick this by a goal, perhaps two.
Top scorers Jerry Yates (21 goals) and on-loan Everton man Ellis Simms (10) are both short-priced but it’s the latter I’m drawn to after a run of five goals in his past four games.
Simms is 11/2 to strike first, so the each-way value is not there, and he’s a skinny 2/1 anytime, which is unsurprising. Thus I’m much more attracted to Sky Bet’s 5/1 on SIMMS TO OUTSCORE LINCOLN.
No Blackpool player averages more shots per game than Simms’ 2.3 and he has also registered three braces since his January arrival so the bet isn’t dead even if Lincoln do find the net.
In a final where value is difficult to find on forwards despite defences being expected to be on top, Simms to find the net in a narrow Blackpool win seems the best play.
Blackpool v Lincoln best bets and score prediction
- 1pt Lincoln under 0.5 goals at 12/5 (RedZone)
- 1pt Ellis Simms to outscore opposition at 5/1 (Sky Bet)
Score prediction: Blackpool 1-0 Lincoln (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Odds correct at 1430 BST (26/05/21)
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