There are so many backdrops and subplots behind the League Two play-off final it’s impossible to do it justice, but one thing is assured – a fairytale ending awaits whoever wins.
Football betting tips: Morecambe v Newport
1pt Either side to win on penalties at 5/1 (General)
1pt Matty Dolan to score anytime at 15/2 (Paddy Power and Betfair)
0.5pt Sam Lavelle to score anytime at 20/1 (Paddy Power and Betfair)
Since Newport County were last in the third tier of English football in 1987, they have gone out of business, reformed and spent 25 years in the non-league pyramid.
For Morecambe, that 25-year stint must seem like small fry – the Shrimps, formed in 1920, spent the first 87 years of their existence in non-league.
They have spent the past 14 seasons in League Two, usually in the bottom half, with just one play-off appearance to show for it and are chasing a first-ever promotion to the third tier.
Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Monday
TV channel: Sky Sports Main Event
Morecambe 17/10 | Draw 11/5 | Newport 6/4
Just to add some further spice to it, Morecambe boss Derek Adams, who took over 18 months ago, last summer released club legend, striker Kevin Ellison, then 41, now 42… who signed for… Newport.
Ellison, of course, would go on to score off the bench in Newport’s 3-1 win at Morecambe in March and, sort of Emmanuel Adebayor style, ran half the length of the pitch to celebrate in Adams’ face.
The likely substitute is, if you fancy it, 17/2 as last goalscorer in the Wembley final with Paddy Power. I’m not going to tip it but, hey, you know football…
😬 Safe to say Kevin Ellison enjoyed scoring against his former manager Derek Adams, who froze him out and made him train on his own after nine years with the club...
— Football League Zone (@TheFLZone) March 13, 2021
🎥 @SkyFootball
pic.twitter.com/piZutU0xAI
One Newport man I will tip, however, is Exiles' top league scorer Matty Dolan, who has seven League Two goals to his name this season, and scored in both league meetings with Morecambe.
Admittedly, seven is not a huge tally, and it’s strange to see a team finish so high (fifth) without a goalscorer in double digits but Newport have very much spread the fun around.
Dolan scored a 25-yard screamer to open the semi-final first-leg scoring against Forest Green after I mentioned him in my preview but stopped short of tipping him – and I’m not making that mistake again.
Crucially, he is Newport’s penalty taker as well as having an eye for a goal from open play, so the 15/2 with Paddy Power and Betfair on DOLAN TO SCORE ANYTIME is pretty much the bet of the final for me.
While we hope Newport prevail, after backing them in our outright play-off preview, it has to be noted that Morecambe rarely fail to score – they have drawn a blank just 10 times in 57 matches in all competitions this term.
While Newport won both head-to-heads, Morecambe finished a place and three points higher – this is an evenly-matched final and I can see it going all the way, so EITHER SIDE TO WIN ON PENALTIES should keep you interested at 5/1.
Both sides squeezed through their semi-finals, Morecambe edging out Tranmere 3-2, while Newport netted a dramatic late extra-time winner in a seesaw 5-4 aggregate thriller with Forest Green.
If we are to assume Morecambe will score during the 90 minutes, and their record tells us they are likely to, it’s worth looking at their scoring markets.
Attacking trio Cole Stockton, Carlos Mendes Gomes and Liam McAlinden are all short-priced and tough to pick between so I’m going for Morecambe skipper SAM LAVELLE TO SCORE ANYTIME at a whopping 20/1 with Paddy Power and Betfair.
The captain has notched twice this season, is always a threat at set-pieces, and a Wembley final seems the perfect time for a man nicknamed 'Mr Morecambe' – after rising through the ranks to become skipper – to make a mark on the grand stage.
Morecambe v Newport score prediction and best bets
- Either side to win on penalties at 5/1 (General)
- Matty Dolan to score anytime at 15/2 (Paddy Power and Betfair)
- Sam Lavelle to score anytime at 20/1 (Paddy Power and Betfair)
Score prediction: Morecambe 2-2 Newport (Sky Bet odds: 14/1)
Odds correct at 1600 BST (28/05/21)
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