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Premier League restart: Team-by-team verdicts, predictions and best bets for top-flight football's return
Liverpool will win the league but how will the other 19 teams get on in the rest of the Premier League campaign? We assess them all.
It seems like forever, but the Premier League season is finally going to be completed - although it won't be quite as we know it!
No crowds will be there, but there's still plenty to play for as Liverpool will finally get to scratch that 30-year title itch, after waiting three decades what's a few more months? It's now just a case of how many they'll win by.
- Premier League remaining fixtures
- Premier League Golden Boot betting
- PL relegation betting: Who's going down?
There's a big tussle for European places behind the dominant Reds though, while the relegation dogfight will be another tense affair - we preview all the big issues and also give our team-by-team verdicts below.
We've also got some special bets on the remaining season and some intriguing stats from our stats expert Richard Jolly, which will raise more than a few eyebrows.
Premier League restart: Team-by-team verdicts (In league table order)
Liverpool
What we'll never know is how Jurgen Klopp's side would have finished out the remainder of a proper season, having lost their unbeaten record, their Champions League crown and FA Cup place in their last few fixtures. However, they've been monumental over the last couple of years, have already established some Premier League records and will be gunning for more - including the record points total in the league.
Liverpool's amazing stat:
Joe Gomez and James Milner could yet complete the season with 100 percent records. Liverpool have only dropped points in two league games, away at Manchester United and Watford, and neither figured in either. Liverpool have 57 points out of 57 when Gomez has played, 54 out of 54 when Milner has appeared.
To put it another way, Gomez has missed 10 games and Liverpool have as many points when he has played as Manchester City do in total. While Gomez is not always described as a ball-playing centre back, only Fernandinho among centre-backs averages more passes into the final third.
Predicted finish: Seriously? Well we are doing it for all of them so OK - 1st.
Bet: Mohamed Salah to be top scorer for the rest of the season at 5/1
Manchester City
The back-to-back champions won't be three-peating. They've really suffered, mostly from Pep Guardiola's refusal to buy a centre back to replace Vincent Kompany, then being punished cruelly by Aymeric Laporte's lengthy absence. Leroy Sane is back, but wants to go to Bayern Munich and their Champions League ban appeal is taking place. That's a lot to digest and there's a real chance they could finally conquer Europe but still be banned from defending the title. They'll be fine in second though and will come back stronger next season.
Man City's amazing stat
City took one point from a possible six against Tottenham this season, despite an expected goals score of 6.45 to 0.49 in those fixtures. Mauricio Pochettino’s Spurs drew 2-2 at the Etihad Stadium in August with an xG of 0.07 when City had 30 shots to Tottenham’s three and had 52 touches in the opposing penalty area to five.
Jose Mourinho’s Spurs won 2-0 in London in February when City had 19 shots to Tottenham’s three.
Predicted finish: Solid in second
Bet: Man City to be top scorers for rest of the season at 8/15
Leicester
If they can just keep it together they've enough of a gap to fend off those Champions League rivals to get back into the top competition. The likes of Man Utd are healthier than previously though so it may be closer than it would have been pre-break. Saying that, the Foxes don't have the best 2020 form so maybe the reset will have done them good. We've backed them to win the FA Cup, and they're still in that competition. They finish the season against the Red Devils.
Leicester's amazing stat
Jamie Vardy is the Premier League’s top scorer, even though he has only found the net in one game in 2020, but he has been a master of efficiency. Some 21 other players have had more shots than Vardy, whose 59 give him a 32 percent chance conversion rate. He has scored with 54 percent of his shots on target; to put it another way, goalkeepers have only made 16 saves from him.
Brendan Rodgers uses him for two things: to stretch the game and free up room for midfielders, and as a finisher. Vardy is barely involved in the build-up. He ranks 33rd out of 34 strikers for passes per 90 minute, averaging just 7.73.
Predicted finish: Will hang on for third
Chelsea
Frank Lampard has his side in fourth, which was unexpected given his young squad, but while they look well set for a big push next season it'll be a big fight to hold off Man Utd for that top four. Of course, fifth may do, but they've got some big games to get through to even stay there. Manchester City, Liverpool, Sheffield United and Wolves are all on their fixture list and they're still in the FA Cup. Fifth looks their best bet.
Chelsea's amazing stat
Chelsea’s goalkeepers have the lowest save percentage in the Premier League this season, of just 57 percent, after conceding from 39 of 86 shots on target; Kepa Arrizabalaga, the normal choice, has been beaten by 32 of 74 shots on target, a save percentage of 56.7. His total of 42 saves is the lowest of any regular top-flight keeper. Only Liverpool, with 84, have conceded fewer attempts on target than Chelsea but nine teams have let in fewer goals.
Predicted finish: Will miss out in fifth
Manchester United
United were in great form on an unbeaten run of 11 games before the break, but they now get Marcus Rashford and Paul Pogba back from injury to go alongside the excellent Bruno Fernandes. They're certainly ones to watch, especially if they get positive results against Spurs and Sheffield United - their top four price will plummet if they win those.
Man Utd's amazing stat
United’s forwards are leaders in a variety of different fields. Mason Greenwood has made the most substitute appearances in the league, with 18. Marcus Rashford has hit the woodwork most often this season – six times – while Odion Ighalo has the highest expected goals per 90 minutes of anyone left in the league (Georges-Kevin Nkoudou, formerly of Tottenham, is ahead with 5.07) of 4.92. Although actually the Nigerian has not scored a league goal for United.
Predicted finish: Pinch 4th
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Wolves
If any team needed a break it was Wolves who have been on the go for almost a year now given their early Europa League start. Adama Traore will be fully fit after shoulder problems, so with Wolves being able to go full steam ahead they could be a big danger to the top five. With big games to play though, they may just come up short.
Wolves' amazing stat
Adama Traore’s solo runs have meant he has stood out, but not just in the context of Wolves. The winger averages 11.65 successful dribbles per 90 minutes in the Premier League this season. It puts him way clear of second-place Allan Saint-Maximin, on 8.51. It also means no one runs with the ball as often in any of Europe’s top five major leagues. Traore’s nearest rival is Neymar, with 9.94 successful dribbles per 90 minutes. And the next man in France, Germany, Italy or Spain? Lionel Messi, on 7.7.
Predicted finish: Stay in 6th
Sheffield United
The Blades were flying in their unexpected European challenge, but there's a big worry that the teams around them have improved with getting injured players back and that momentum may have been lost. They're still involved in this sprint finish, and make no mistake Chris Wilder will have them organised, but the lack of crowd support and the extra substitutions will both work against them when they face teams with bigger squads such as Man Utd, Tottenham, Wolves, Chelsea and Leicester in what is a daunting finishing stretch.
Sheffield United's amazing stat
Famously or infamously, David McGoldrick has had the most shots in the Premier League without scoring. Sheffield United have had the fewest shots of any club. And yet there is a case that between them, United’s centre-forwards have done a fine job and that, if you could combine their attributes in one player, he would be outstanding. Among strikers, Lys Mousset averages most assists per 90 minutes on the pitch.
McGoldrick is third in the chart for successful passes to the final third per 90 minutes and first for winning defensive duels. Oli McBurnie averages the most headers at goal, the most ball recoveries and the most interceptions and Billy Sharp ranks fourth for passes that lead to a shot and third for successful crosses.
Predicted finish: Slip to 8th
Tottenham
Jose Mourinho is among those who will get the most out of this enforced break as he gets Harry Kane and Son Heung-min back fit along with the likes of Moussa Sissoko and Steven Bergwijn. Mourinho has also had plenty of time to plan for former club Man Utd in their first game back, and you know he'll be desperate to get one over on them. Playing in that vast stadium without fans will take some getting used to and while they will improve there's too much traffic in between them and the top four.
Tottenhma's amazing stat
Spurs have kept as many clean sheets in this season’s Premier League as they did in April 2017: four. Three of those shutouts have come under Jose Mourinho, which is as many clean sheets as his Chelsea managed in his first three games at the helm. Tottenham have gone from having the joint most clean sheets in 2016-17 to the joint fewest, along with Aston Villa and Bournemouth, now. One reason is that only four teams have conceded more shots and only Newcastle have allowed more shots on target.
Predicted finish: Up one to 7th
Arsenal
Arsenal were hard enough to figure out even before throwing in a huge break and no crowds. Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang's future and that dodgy defence are all reasons enough to suggest they'll find it almost impossible to make any ground up on those above them, but good enough to stay where they are. A word of caution though that with games against Man City, Wolves, Spurs, Leicester and Liverpool they may have to look over their shoulders at those behind them if Burnley or Everton can get on a run.
Arsenal's amazing stat
Arsenal only rank 14th for both shots (11.1) and shots on target (3.9, below Norwich) per game this season. One reason why they are still the eighth highest scorers is Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, perhaps the most consistently ruthless finisher in the Premier League.
For the third consecutive season, the Gabonese has scored with more than half his shots on target. This year’s ratio – 17 from 27 – is a new high of 63 percent. Aubameyang’s potency is unaffected by being moved around the team: he averages at least 0.5 goals per 90 minutes whether he starts on the right, the left or in the middle.
Predicted finish: Stay in 9th
Burnley
In Burnley's favour they were on a four-game unbeaten run when the season stopped and they have a decent fixture list as they eye an unlikely European push, but their squad depth and lack of home fans at Turf Moor could really hit them hard when playing teams who really have something to fight for. They're just a point behind Arsenal but it doesn't feel like they're looking to catch that gap up and more likely just getting through the season. We think they'll slip just slightly.
Burnley's amazing stat
Chris Wood is set to retain his title. The Burnley striker has been caught offside seven more times than anyone else; last season, he was offside 15 times more than any other forward. It shows he plays on the shoulder of the last defender. Burnley tend to look for him when they get possession.
Sean Dyche’s side rarely play through the midfield but their full-backs get the ball forward quickly: Charlie Taylor averages the most long passes per 90 minutes among left-backs and Matt Lowton and Phil Bardsley rank third and fourth respectively among right-backs. In contrast, Taylor only comes 27th in his position for most passes per 90 minutes. Burnley do fewer short passes than most.
Predicted finish: Down to 11th
Crystal Palace
Palace did all their hard work just before the break and it's almost a case of job done for the Eagles - even though they're level on points with Burnley, above Everton and surprisingly just a point behind Arsenal! Those fans at Selhurst Park make a huge noise, and difference, to their team and with no real relegation concerns and games against Wolves, Chelsea, Leicester, Manchester United and Tottenham they may struggle to find the intensity to keep their form going.
Crystal Palace's amazing stat
Palace’s 29 games have had an average of exactly two goals per game – 58, with them scoring 26 and conceding 32. The last team to finish a Premier League season with an average of under two goals per game was Burnley in 2017-18, with their 38 matches producing 75 goals. Before that, it was Roy Hodgson’s Fulham in 2008-09, with just 73 goals.
Predicted finish: Slip a couple to 13th
Everton
They kick-off in what could be Liverpool's coronation game at Goodison - it's probably just as well Everton fans won't be there to see it. Carlo Ancelotti has given this side a big lift, Dominic Calvert-Lewin in particular, and there are good signs ahead of next season. Ancelotti will look at his squad and they'll pick up a few good results during the rest of this campaign to just about nab a top-half finish.
Everton's amazing stat
Everton have adopted a more direct approach this season, especially with Carlo Ancelotti playing 4-4-2 and pairing Dominic Calvert-Lewin with Richarlison in attack. It is shown by the fact they average more headers at goal – 3.2 per game – than anyone else.
Only Burnley’s Chris Wood has scored more headers than Calvert-Lewin, with four, and three of the five players who average most headers at goal per 90 minutes are from Everton: Yerry Mina (second), Richarlison (third) and Calvert-Lewin (fifth). Only Manchester City and Liverpool, who have had more possession, have delivered more crosses than Everton, while Lucas Digne is the player with the third most centres.
Predicted finish: Improve to 10th
Newcastle
1/100 odds on a bottom half finish tell you the story, takeover or no takeover Newcastle are rooted in the bottom 10, and need to start scoring a few more goals to kill off any lingering relegation worries. Steve Bruce is auditioning for his own job as well with new owners possibly coming soon, but seems likely to be moved on regardless of who takes over. They need to get a couple of wins early to just avoid being so focused on new owners that they slip up on the pitch.
Newcastle's amazing stat
Joelinton has a 2.3 percent chance conversion rate after scoring from one of his 42 attempts at goal for Newcastle. When United next play, it will be 301 days since his only league goal. One reason why he doesn’t score, which perhaps reveals a crisis of confidence, is that he doesn’t shoot often: of the 34 footballers who have played the most minutes as a centre-forward this season, Joelinton ranks 30th for shots per 90 minutes.
Newcastle’s specialist strikers, in Joelinton, Dwight Gayle and Andy Carroll, have one goal between them. They have five defenders with at least two.
Predicted finish: Down to 14th
Southampton
Ralph Hassenhuttl has signed a new contract and there is a positive air around the south coast even though Saints lost four out of five before the interval to sit just seven points above the drop zone. Two things work in their favour, they have games against teams below them in the table and they have Danny Ings, who is breathing down the necks of the top scorers this season.
He's 25/1 to score most goals in the rest of the campaign which may appeal to Southampton fans, but we also expect them to hit the ground running in their opening game against bottom side Norwich.
Southampton's amazing stat
Shane Long signed a new two-year contract last week, even though he has not scored for Southampton before New Year’s Eve in any season since 2015. Ralph Hasenhuttl has a 17-goal strike partnership, but Danny Ings has 88 percent of those goals. It is a partnership of opposite: Ings has the fourth best goal-per-minute ratio as a centre-forward this season and Long the 28th best.
Ings is arguably better at Long’s supposed strengths than Long is. The Irishman ranks 28th and the Englishman ranks second among strikers for most interceptions per 90 minutes and second for ball recoveries that lead to a shot in 20 seconds: in other words, examples of high pressing that bring the chance to score, which fits Hasenhuttl’s ethos. And when Nathan Redmond plays as a striker, he tops the list for winning defensive duels and ball recoveries in the opposing half. What Long genuinely is good at is winning headers: only Christian Benteke and Sebastien Haller win more per game.
Predicted finish: Safe enough in 12th
Brighton
Brighton's bosses have talked themselves into a corner with their strong opposition to neutral venues. So the Seagulls need to get some good results at an empty Amex when they take on Arsenal, Manchester United, Manchester City, Liverpool and Newcastle, having not won in 2020 and sitting just two points above the relegation zone. This will be tight, and Graham Potter's side will have to avoid falling into the trap of trying to play their way out of trouble - results are all that matter now. They should just find three teams worse than them.
Brighton's amazing stat
Graham Potter has shown a willingness to experiment with players in different positions, leading to the incongruous sight of the 6ft 7in Dan Burn playing left-back. But when Burn has operated in his more familiar role in the middle of defence, he has had an idiosyncratic interpretation of the duties.
Burn averages far more dribbles per 90 minutes as a centre-back than anyone else (2.7 – the next best is 1.56). He creates more chances: 0.56 passes per 90 minutes leads to a shot, almost double the next man, Jack O’Connell. He ranks second, behind O’Connell, for key passes and crosses. In short, he is the most attacking, most creative centre-back around.
Predicted finish: Will just have enough - 17th
West Ham
West Ham vice-chairman Karren Brady did not win many fans with her early calls for the league to be voided with West Ham only safe from relegation on goal difference. The suspension could help them gather themselves after a woeful run of form previously - but they do face Wolves, Tottenham and Chelsea in their first three games.
Much will depend on how they react if those games go against them, and also on relegation six-pointers versus Norwich, Watford and Aston Villa. In that respect, no fans in their home ground may help the Hammers if they're struggling.
West Ham's amazing stat
Aaron Cresswell is the second-highest scoring left-back, with his three goals putting him behind only Marcos Alonso. He has made the most of limited opportunities as, while he has had 15 shots, those three goals have come from an xG of just 0.93.
David Moyes’ left-backs both offer an attacking threat. Cresswell averages the third most passes into the final third and the fifth most crosses per 90 minutes, while Arthur Masuaku tops the charts for successful dribbles.
Predicted finish: Survival in 15th
Watford
A 3-0 demolition of Liverpool gave Watford the tiniest bit of breathing space at the bottom, or at least hope of Nigel Pearson performing another relegation salvation job. Troy Deeney was, and is, crucial to their prospects and their home games with Southampton, Norwich and Newcastle will be vital as they finish with Man City and Arsenal.
Watford's amazing stat
When Nigel Pearson took over, Watford were bottom. They are 10th in the table since his appointment, one point ahead of his former club Leicester. In the expected points table, however, Pearson’s Watford are even higher: eighth, above Arsenal and Tottenham. Only four clubs have conceded fewer goals in Pearson’s reign and only six players have a higher expected goals than Troy Deeney in that time.
Predicted finish: Staying up - just. 16th
Bournemouth
The likes of David Brooks and Josh King are back in the fold and will be vital to the Cherries’ hopes of staying up, but news of Ryan Fraser deciding against extending his contract is a huge blow to their chances. They've got games against Man City and Man Utd to play as well as Spurs in their run-in, it's tough to see them staying up.
Bournemouth's amazing stat
Bournemouth are top for most interceptions per game, at 13.2, and bottom for tackles, at 13.1; every other relegation-threatened team has made at least 15.6. And yet despite that lack of tackles, they have two of the most booked players in the division: the centre-midfield partnership of Jefferson Lerma and Philip Billing boast a combined 16 yellow cards (18 if you include the two Lerma got against Aston Villa).
Bournemouth left-back Diego Rico has made the most interceptions this season, with 66, despite only playing 21 of their 29 games, with Billing tied for sixth and Lerma level in 18th.
Predicted finish: Relegated in 19th
Aston Villa
Villa currently sit in the bottom three but a win over Sheffield United – in the opening game of the restart – will see them claw out of the drop zone. After so much talk of this game in hand when the season was possibly going to be decided on either as it stands or PPG, Villa will be desperate to win it. Having John McGinn back is a huge plus, if he can hit the ground running, and it could all come down to the final day when they face West Ham.
Aston Villa's amazing stat
Villa have conceded the most goals in the division so far and arguably it could have been rather more. Tom Heaton, before injury, faced on average more shots on target than any other regular keeper: 4.81 per match. In front of him, however, his overworked defenders have prevented more chances.
Tyrone Mings averages the most interceptions in the league among centre-backs (8.5 per 90 minutes) with Kortney Hause second. Hause leads the way for ball recoveries, just ahead of Virgil van Dijk, and for winning aerial duels. Yet the numbers suggest individual interventions are required because of the failure as a unit.
Predicted finish: Going down in 18th
Norwich
Given the circumstances we find ourselves in, it's not impossible that Norwich could fight their way out of trouble with six points between them and safety. It all depends on how they and the teams around them react to this new way of football life.
If they can make some in-roads on the gap, then games against Brighton and West Ham would suddenly become huge. Football in Germany has shown us though that quality usually comes through so for now we still think they'll finish bottom.
Norwich's amazing stat
Norwich have scored a solitary goal with a header this season, the joint lowest with Watford. However, that has not stopped them from trying. Sam Byram averages three times more headers at goal per 90 minutes as a left-back than anyone else (0.52) in the division while Tom Trybull averages the most as a central midfielder (0.41). Neither has scored yet this season.
Predicted finish: Bottom spot 20th
Bet: Norwich to finish bottom at 4/9
All odds correct as of 1123 on 17/6/20
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