Richard Jolly picks out the stats and tactics that say Bruno Fernandes could bring the very best out of Paul Pogba at Man Utd.
The clue tends to be in the name. Most players are only the reigning Premier League Player of the Month for just that: 30 days, or perhaps 31. Not the February winner Bruno Fernandes, who is set to retain the title for at least four months.
There are more legitimate ways of assessing the Portuguese’s impact in his brief time in England, but it is considerable. For instance, he averages a goal a game - either scored or created, anyway - in his brief top-flight career, with two goals and three assists in five matches. There was a sense he was belatedly filling a void created by Paul Pogba’s absence. The Frenchman sustained productivity over a longer period last season, with 13 league goals and nine assists. No midfielder struck more often in the Premier League.
If the Covid-19 pandemic has allowed Pogba to return to fitness after an ankle problem meant he had not played in 2020, the corresponding collapse in the transfer market could reshape Manchester United’s midfield again. Pogba is ever likelier to stay at Old Trafford. Far from being his successor, Fernandes could be his sidekick.
United seemed to have a midfield wasteland, with the perhaps unexpected exception of Scott McTominay, as Andreas Pereira, Juan Mata, Jesse Lingard, Pogba and Fred mustered a solitary league goal between them this season. Now they threaten to have the most potent in the division.
For some, adherents to the Souness school of thought, the focus on Pogba revolves around his attitude. Tactically, the likelihood is that Fernandes’ excellence as a No. 10 could mean he operates as No. 8 where Fred, his lack of goals notwithstanding, has started to flourish. Yet that is normally where he played for the majority of last season; 87 percent of Pogba’s starts came in a deeper central role, often with a licence to advance.
By the time football returns, he will have gone 10 months without an assist – his two both came in the opening 4-0 win over Chelsea – and his 521 minutes of Premier League action this season are yet to yield a goal. But assess his returns, using the Comparisonator website, as a No. 8 last year against those who have occupied that position in this season’s Premier League and it is evident what an asset he can be.
The 2018-19 Pogba has most goals per 90 minutes, second most shots, behind only Kevin de Bruyne, third most assists, with only the Belgian and David Silva ahead of him. He ranks fifth for dribbles and for successful long passes; that the leaders in the latter category are deep-lying playmakers like Oliver Norwood, Ruben Neves and Jorginho shows that Pogba can be multiple players in one. Only Neves and Granit Xhaka averaged more long passes per game in the 2018-19 Premier League and, given Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s fondness for counter-attacking football, the Frenchman’s long passing is a way of transforming defence into offence quickly.
That distribution over a sizeable distance adds another dimension and is also a reason why Pogba, like Fernandes, is never going to top the charts for accuracy. There are similarities in that neither is a metronome: to use Solskjaer’s phrase, they “risk the ball”, accepting they could lose it in an attempt to unlock a defence. Pogba’s pass completion rate in this and last season’s Premier Leagues are identical: 82.8 percent. From a more advanced role, Fernandes’ is a mere 76.5 percent. But Sir Alex Ferguson’s title-winning United sides rarely used to top the possession charts; they did not believe in passing for passing’s sake.
Solskjaer is sometimes accused of retreating to the past. Box-to-box goalscoring midfielders were more common in his playing days, when the division between attacking and defensive midfielders was less pronounced. Pogba, a very modern figure in some respects, is a throwback in others. He lets fly from long range – 55 times last season alone – which is now often deemed statistically inefficient. He gets into scoring positions far more than any of his counterparts. His expected goals for last season of 15.88 – no other central midfielder had more than the penalty specialist Luka Milivojevic on 10.49 – and 1.90 from his brief outings this season suggest he is profligate. Only Harry Kane, Mohamed Salah and Sergio Aguero averaged more shots per game last season.
The concern with Pogba is that he can afford the defensive midfielder too little assistance, meaning McTominay could be outnumbered. Juventus played a midfield three, meaning two others could compensate. In the 2018 World Cup, France used Blaise Matuidi ostensibly on the left, but where he could help the workaholic N’Golo Kante if Pogba roamed.
Because there is a marked difference between his returns when attacking and defending; the 2018-19 Pogba ranks third in the 2019-20 Premier League for attacking duels won and just 60th for defensive ones (where, in almost complete contrast, Fred figures in fourth place).
United have only conceded twice in 11 games and if that defensive sturdiness reflects in part on Fred’s fine form, the benefits in creativity and potency Pogba offers could more than compensate for the loss of solidity. It is a trade-off Solskjaer is likely to accept if he can pair Pogba and Fernandes and transform United’s midfield from goal-shy to goalscorers.
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