The first leg of the League One play-off tie between Oxford and Blackpool takes place on Tuesday, with fans in attendance at the Kassam Stadium. Jake Osgathorpe previews the game.
Football betting tips: Oxford v Blackpool
1.5pt Oxford to win at 6/4 (William Hill)
1pt Oxford to win and BTTS at 11/2 (Sky Bet)
An intriguing tie in the League One play-offs.
As I mentioned in my outright preview, this tie pits one of League One’s best attacking teams (Oxford) against one of it’s best defensive teams (Blackpool).
The U’s finished the season winning six of their last seven to pip Charlton and Portsmouth to the final play-off spot, but a top six place was deserved according to their underlying numbers.
Oxford League One’s attacking juggernaut
Karl Robinson’s side were a frightening attacking team over the course of the season, averaging 1.52 Expected Goals For (xGF) per game, and they finished the campaign in even stronger form, averaging 1.68 xGF per game over their last 10.
What is expected goals (xG)?
- Expected goals (xG) is a metric that measures the quality of any given scoring opportunity
- Expected goals for (xGF) is the xG created by a team
- Expected goals against (xGA) is xG conceded by a team
They did cut loose in that spell, mainly due to their need for wins in order to chase down the top six, and that led to a vulnerability at the back, and to them being involved in high-scoring contests.
It was literally all-out-attack, with Robinson deploying attacking players in pretty much every position, and it worked.
Whether they will persist with that style in this tie remains to be seen, but given Blackpool’s numbers, they will need all the firepower they have.
Read Sporting Life's Sky Bet EFL play-offs outright previews
Defence over attack for Blackpool
Neil Critchley’s side finished the season strongly to secure third spot, and their success this season has been built on a solid foundation.
The Tangerines have allowed just 0.96 Expected Goals Against (xGA) per game over the course of the season, an exceptional defensive process.
That stands them in good stead to remain in a tie over two legs, but their below-par attacking numbers mean they are reliant on the defence to keep them in games so they can nick wins.
They have averaged just 1.19 xGF per game over the course of the season, which is very middling, and that is why they haven’t really blown anyone out this season.
Over two legs, the question is, can Blackpool keep Oxford at bay and nick a goal or two?
Side with the U’s to get the ‘W’
I think the answer to that question is no.
With the way Oxford have been playing in attack, they will likely create a fair few decent chances against an admittedly stubborn defence.
The visitors in this first leg, Blackpool, are far from prolific in attack, and although Oxford have shown glimpses of defensive vulnerability, the Tangerines may not be set up to exploit them.
The Infogol model gives the hosts a 45% chance of winning this first leg, which is an implied price of 6/5, so the 6/4 we are getting at William Hill for an OXFORD WIN is a solid value selection.
Fans are to be back for this game, and they can cheer on a win for their side, but given they do tend to concede when winning, Sky Bet's price boost of OXFORD TO WIN AND BTTS from 9/2 to 11/2 is worth a punt.
14 of Oxford's 22 League One wins this season have seen both teams hit the net, so the big price should be gobbled up.
Oxford v Blackpool best bets and score prediction
- Oxford to win at 6/4 (William Hill)
- Oxford to win and BTTS at 11/2 (Sky Bet)
Score prediction: Oxford 2-1 Blackpool (Sky Bet odds: 8/1)
Odds correct at 1500 BST (14/05/21)
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