Jake Osgathorpe previews the 2021 Sky Bet League One play-offs with outright picks, statistics, xG data and more.
Football betting tips: Sky Bet League One play-offs
2.5pts Sunderland to win the Sky Bet League One play-offs at 2/1 (General)
1.5pts Sunderland and Oxford to make the final at 11/5 (Sky Bet)
After an enthralling season, the Sky Bet League One play-offs have arrived with four teams battling to secure their spot in the Championship for the 2021/22 campaign.
Blackpool, Sunderland, Lincoln and Oxford are the teams who will fight for promotion, with Lee Johnson’s Sunderland favourites to win at Wembley and go up to the Championship.
Blackpool and Oxford play eachother in the semi-final and both are 11/4 to get promoted, while Lincoln are 10/3 outsiders to return to the second tier for the first time since 1998.
When are the Sky Bet League One play-offs?
The Sky Bet League One play-offs get under way on Monday, May 17 and will conclude on Saturday, May 30, with all matches shown live on Sky Sports Football.The full semi-final schedule is:
- Oxford v Blackpool: Tuesday May 18 at 18:00
- Lincoln v Sunderland: Monday May 19 at 18:00
- Blackpool v Oxford: Friday May 21 at 19:45
- Sunderland v Lincoln: Saturday May 22 at 15:00
The final will be staged at Wembley Stadium and is scheduled to take place on Saturday May 30 at 3pm.
What does the data say?
Sunderland are favourites for a reason.
Based on the data, The Black Cats were the best team in the league this season, collecting the most expected points (xP). Basically, they were unfortunate not to go up automatically, with performances solid throughout the campaign.
After winning nine of an unbeaten 11, Sunderland went winless in the following seven matches, which is why their push for the top two fell short.
What is expected goals (xG)?
- Expected goals (xG) is a metric that measures the quality of any given scoring opportunity
- Expected goals for (xGF) is the xG created by a team
- Expected goals against (xGA) is xG conceded by a team
- xG process is the rate at which a teams creates and concedes chances
If they continue to hit the same xG process levels though, they will prove to be the team to beat.
Based on Infogol’s ratings, the worst team in the play-offs are Lincoln, and they have the task of beating the best – according to the data – to get to Wembley.
The other match-up, Blackpool v Oxford, is really interesting, as it pits the best defensive team in the play-offs against the best attacking one.
Blackpool finished the season strongly, winning their last four matches without conceding, as they ended in third place in League One.
Neil Critchley’s side are the only team in the play-offs according to Infogol’s ratings who are allowing less than 1.0 xGA per game, but their attacking process isn’t as great as Sunderland’s or their semi-final opponents Oxford.
The U’s secured a play-off place on the final day of the season thanks to a 4-0 win over Burton and a Portsmouth defeat at home to Accrington, but it was fully deserved according to expected goals.
Karl Robinson’s side were behind only Sunderland and Peterborough this season in terms of attacking process, but they are the worst defensive team in the play-offs, making their contest against Blackpool an intriguing one.
Who will win the semi-finals?
Oxford v Blackpool
- Season head-to-head: Oxford 0-2 Blackpool (March 3); Blackpool 0-0 Oxford (December 12)
- Game dates: Tuesday May 18 at 18:00; Friday May 21 at 19:45
Defence came out on top in helping Blackpool to four points across their two league meetings with Oxford this season, with the Tangerines keeping clean sheets in both games.
Both teams are in good form, but Oxford have really opened the taps in recent weeks, winning six of their last seven, scoring 24 times in that period.
Usually, defence is sided with over attack in these kinds of ties, and that has definitely been the case for the most part without fans in the ground, but fans will be back for these games.
The added firepower and free-flowing nature of Oxford means they will score a couple over two legs, and while I think Blackpool can exploit Oxford, I’m siding with the U’s to progress to the final in the closest of the semi-finals.
Verdict: Oxford to qualify for the final at 10/11
Lincoln v Sunderland
- Season head-to-head: Sunderland 1-1 Lincoln (March 20); Lincoln 0-4 Sunderland (December 12)
- Game dates: Wednesday May 19 at 19:45; Saturday May 22 at 15:00
Lincoln have had another excellent season under Michael Appleton, but after being in the top two for a large part, it would have been disappointing to see that slip away.
A run of one win in 10 towards the back end of the campaign slammed the breaks on their automatic promotion hopes, but that was to be expected when analysing the data.
Sunderland have been inconsistent with results, but not performance levels, and if they can maintain those, they are the team to beat in the play-offs.
Lee Johnson’s side are well-rounded and have some strong individuals, so should progress to Wembley.
Verdict: Sunderland to qualify for the final at 4/7
Infogol calculates that a Sunderland v Oxford play-off final is the most likely match-up, with a 35.1% chance, so the SUNDERLAND & OXFORD DUAL FORECAST looks a solid bet at 11/5 with Sky Bet.
A Sunderland v Blackpool play-off final is a close second, mainly due to the high chance the model gives Sunderland of making the showpiece, and the closeness of the Blackpool-Oxford semi.
Who will win the Sky Bet League One play-offs?
Sunderland are favourites with the bookies to win promotion, and the Infogol model agrees.
The Black Cats are best priced at 2/1, which means an implied probability of 33.3%.
Infogol calculates that Lee Johnson’s side get promoted 38% of the time, implied odds of around 8/5, making Sunderland a value play to earn promotion.
While Oxford also represent value at their best price of 7/2, given the tight nature of their semi-final, I’m going to avoid backing them at this stage.
Taking solely Sunderland should leave us in a good position should they make it to Wembley, which I think is likely.
Sky Bet League One play-offs best bets
- 2.5pts Sunderland to win the League One play-offs at 2/1 (General)
- 1.5pts Sunderland and Oxford to make the final at 11/5 (Sky Bet)
Odds correct at 1430 BST (11/05/21)
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