Jake Pearson takes a look at some of the betting trends following the opening round of fixtures and assesses whether home field advantage is as important as it seems.
Andrea Bocelli. Nessun Dorma. The Euro 2020 opening ceremony in Rome really was a sight to behold, and the football Italy played wasn’t half bad either, but is home field advantage as important as some people think it is?
Prior to kick-off in Rome, Mark Taylor wrote a piece for Sporting Life on whether home advantage would matter, and in it he explained how the home field advantage had declined tournament on tournament since 1960, and this is a trend that looks to be continuing into this European Championship.
Going back to Italy, they were utterly dominant against Turkey in their opening fixture, but Italy are the masters at making home field advantage count – they haven’t lost a competitive game at home since 1999, and they haven’t lost in Rome since 1953. They will certainly thrive on playing all three of their group games in Italy, but that is not necessarily the case for the rest of the teams at this tournament.
Italy’s win included, only three of the nine matches played with home field advantage in the opening round of fixtures went the way of the “home” side, with five “away” wins, and one draw.
This is something we saw a lot in the Premier League during the 2020/21 season, with no fans in attendance for the vast majority of the season, more away wins were recorded than home wins for the first time since the inception of the Premier League.
Obviously, there are fans in the stadiums at the Euros, and the majority are supporting the “home” team, so the lack of a crowd roaring on the home side cannot really be an excuse for the poor showing from “home” teams thus far.
Interesting price moves
There were some very notably price changes in the opening round of fixtures, both drifters and steamers, and one of the common variables connecting these price moves was home field advantage.
Denmark shortened from 1.53 to 1.33 in their fixture against Finland in Copenhagen, while later that evening Belgium drifted from 1.58 to 2.13 for their match in Saint Petersburg against Russia.
On Sunday afternoon England, who started the day at as big as 1.83 in places, were sent off at 1.5 to beat Croatia at Wembley, while later in the evening the Netherlands, who hosted Ukraine in Amsterdam, saw their price shorten from 1.67 to 1.54.
Scotland, who were playing their first ever finals match at Hampden Park, saw their price cut from as big as 3.35 to 2.63 to beat Czech Republic, while Spain shortened to 1.33 from 1.5 to beat Sweden in Seville.
France, who travelled to Germany for arguably the biggest game of the opening round, were originally priced at around the 2.55 mark, but saw their price drift dramatically and were eventually sent off as 2.93 outsiders.
These price moves do feel like the market finally catching up with home field advantage, but as we can see from the results, perhaps the shifts were overly generous.
Home field advantage or not, there is no way Belgium should have been odds-against to beat Russia, while world champions France surely deserved to be sent off favourites against a Germany team that have come under increasing scrutiny in their homeland over the last year or so.
How to use this to make informed betting decisions
Already there have been price moves prior to the start of the second round of fixtures, and surprise surprise, the moves involve teams playing in their own country.
Russia play Finland in Saint Petersburg on Wednesday afternoon, and after being available to back at 1.74 on Tuesday evening, they have now moved into as short as 1.58 in places, while Italy have seen their price to beat Switzerland take a tumble, initially available at 1.72, but now 1.59 in places to win in Rome.
The lesson here then is if you fancy a team playing at home, get on them early, as the price is likely to collapse, but also, maybe do not put too much stock in the home field advantage scenario.
As mentioned previously, Belgium were sent off at odds-against to beat Russia in their opening match in Saint Petersburg, and beat Russia they certainly did, hammering the “home” side 3-0. On Thursday evening, they travel to Copenhagen to play Denmark, and they are again odds-against.
Later in the week Portugal, the reigning European champions, play Germany in Munich, and it is the Germans who are the favourites to win the match. Again, this surely must be down to home field advantage, but as mentioned, it is not as much an advantage as many people are assuming it is; it certainly wasn’t against France anyway.
Overall, the uncertainty surrounding just how much home field advantage is worth means there are irregularities in the market, and these are the areas we must look to exploit.
A “home” nation may be available to back at a more than reasonable price if you get on early enough, while an “away” nation could end up being value if home field advantage is ultimately overestimated by the market.
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