The opening round of group games has concluded, but which teams were fortunate and which got the result they deserved? Jake Osgathorpe uses Expected Goals (xG) to answer those questions.
The first round of Euro 2020 group games have been and gone, and each group is beginning to take shape.
We have seen some excellent performances (Italy) and some shocking ones (Russia), but what do the numbers say? Who was deserving of their opening results, and which teams were fortunate?
We use Expected Goals (xG) to answer those questions.
With Infogol’s xG model, we also generate a ‘Fairness Rating’ for each match which we will be using as a guide in this series.
The fairness rating is calculated by taking the quality of chances created and conceded by each team in a match and simulating every possibility to see how likely each result was.
The Fortunate
Based on this metric, the most ‘unfair’ result based on the quality of chances in the match was Finland’s 1-0 win over Nordic rivals Denmark.
The result was the least of everyone’s worries in this clash given what happened, but the fact that Finland won the game by scoring with their only chance of the match is worth a mention.
The Finns couldn’t create anything, before or after the game was suspended, other than what proved to be the winner, with the Infogol model calculating that they had just a 6% chance of winning the game based on the chances both sides created.
Scotland suffered an opening day defeat to Czech Republic, but they shouldn’t be as downbeat and deflated as many were, as Steve Clarke’s side did create plenty of chances.
The Scots racked up 2.29 xG, with Infogol calculating just a 10% chance they would fail to score in the match from the chances they generated, while simulations of the game suggested they had a 60% chance of winning the fixture.
World champions France were lauded over for their win and performance over Germany, and while they did look dangerous in attack, Les Bleus failed to turn their promising positions into scoring opportunities, generating the second lowest xG total (0.32) of round one.
Only Hungary (0.23) put up an xG total lower than the Euro 2020 favourites, who got their win thanks to an own goal. They did keep the Germans fairly quiet though in the game with lowest combined xG of the opening 12 matches (1.41). We calculate the French had a 10% chance of winning the match based on chances created.
Slovakia were another fortunate winner, as they scored twice from chances equating to 0.49 xG, with Infogol calculating a 9% chance of that happening. They also played against 10 men for the final 30 minutes.
Wales rode their luck against Switzerland, allowing the third highest xG total of the round (2.60) but escaping Baku with a point. Infogol calculates the Dragons had a 19% chance of avoiding defeat.
Spain and Sweden played out the only goalless draw of the opening 12 matches, but the game in Seville was the one that saw the most combined xG of all the games (4.08).
We calculate just a 2% chance that that game would finish goalless, while it was Spain (2.89 xG) who ranked the best attacking team in round one without scoring.
The Deserving
Belgium and Italy both won 3-0 against Russia and Turkey respectively, with both impressing in attack and defence.
The Red Devils were clinical, scoring three goals from nine shots equating to 1.56 xG, while the Azzurri were high-quantity, low-quality in their win, taking 24 shots equating to 2.03 xG.
Frank de Boer’s Netherlands impressed offensively, and should have won their game against Ukraine more comfortably than they eventually did.
England were in cruise control against Croatia, keeping the 2018 World Cup runners-up at bay, with the Croats generating just 0.54 xG.
⚽️ Raheem Sterling's first Euro finals goals
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👌 Kalvin Phillips with the assist in a fine display
🧤 Jordan Pickford only has to make one save
🏴🙌 England win the opening game of a European Championship campaign for the first time#ENGCRO #ENG #EURO2020
Hungary hung on for 80+ minutes against Portugal, but the reigning Euros champions eventually made their pressure pay by rightly winning, and by a margin.
The Portuguese created two big chances in the first half that were both missed, but their xG total of 2.69 was a fair reflection of the three goals they actually scored.
The ‘fairest’ result and scoreline of the first round of matches was Austria’s 3-1 success over North Macedonia, with the xG very much in-line with the actual result (2.46 – 0.70).
What does this tell us?
While we can’t read too much into one result and xG performance in terms of making predictions for future results, it does help bust narratives.
For example, how strong France were. Yes, they impressed in between the boxes, but they didn’t carve out many good chances. Keep playing in that manner and they will struggle to win this tournament.
Scotland shouldn’t be written off based on the 2-0 scoreline, as they were undone by two wonderful goals from Patrik Schick, while simultaneously missing big chances.
Wales are perhaps worse than many thought, and while the narritive was a good point earned for Robert Page's side, a similar performance against Turkey will likely see them get beat.
Spain’s so-called ‘lack of cutting edge’ couldn’t be further from the truth. La Furia Roja created an abundance of chances, their issue was that they didn’t take them. Keep creating the chances, and they will be a huge danger in this competition.
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