We preview the London derby that kicks off the 2020/21 Premier League season, as newly-promoted Fulham host Arsenal at Saturday lunchtime.
Just 48 days after the last one ended, the new Premier League season begins; half the usual gap, if you were wondering.
Despite their shortened holidays, the curtain-raiser should involve players who are full of beans. Fulham, fresh from winning the Sky Bet Championship play-offs, and Arsenal from victory in both the Emirates FA Cup and Community Shield.
Those successes marked the end of an initial period of transformation under new management, with both clubs now looking to take that next, arguably more important, step.
Fulham v Arsenal
- Saturday 12.30pm BST | BT Sport 1
- Match Odds: Home 19/4 | Draw 16/5 | Away 8/15
Scott Parker has taken a basket case of a club from miserable relegation to promotion in little over a year, while Mikel Arteta's nine months at Arsenal seems to have jerked them out of what had appeared to be irreversible decline.
The Gunners' post-lockdown resurgence, which saw them beat Manchester City, Chelsea, Liverpool and Wolves, before defeating the Reds again - albeit on penalties - to lift the Community Shield rightly sees them as heavy odds-on for this game.
The signings of Willian and Gabriel, re-signing of Dani Ceballos, return of William Saliba from a loan spell and (for the moment) keeping hold of Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang are further reasons to be cheerful if you're an Arsenal fan.
Fulham have recruited sensibly after their failed £100m-plus scatter-gun approach of 2018. Mario Lemina, Harrison Reed and Antonee Robinson have arrived so far, with more expected to follow before October's deadline.
Odds stacked against Fulham
Imagine a packed Craven Cottage roaring Fulham to an upset. Imagination is sadly all we have at the moment.
Without that partisan home support, the likelihood of the better team coming out on top is greatly increased, and it's difficult enough for newly-promoted clubs in normal circumstances.
In the past four Premier League seasons, only twice has a recent arrival from the Sky Bet Championship won on the opening weekend: two wins, three draws, seven defeats. Huddersfield's 3-0 win at Crystal Palace in 2017 was the most recent victory.
Then there is Arsenal's recent league record against Fulham - five straight wins, one defeat in 13 - and the Cottagers' record in top-flight London derbies - 10 straight defeats.
A best price of 10/17 for Arsenal to win doesn't seem too bad all of a sudden.
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Infogol's Expected Goals Conceded metric had Fulham conceding nearly 12 more than they did last season. The 59.8 gives them the 10th best defensive record, as opposed to fourth in actual goals against, and that is a concern against a side who are getting stronger in attack.
Goals scored wasn't an issue and their xG figure is in line with their position in the table but the defensive side of Fulham's team remains a concern and a back-up left-back arriving isn't necessarily enough to address that right now.
Arsenal have defensive issues of their own with David Luiz battling to be fit while Shkodran Mustafi, Pablo Mari and Calum Chambers are all recovering from injuries of their own. It appears to be a contest where the odds-on price for both teams to score should be hit.
The visitors finished sixth in the 'over 3.5 match goals standings' last season and that trend should continue while they balance a few problems in the back line in the early stages of the new campaign.
Fulham 1-3 Arsenal (Sky Bet odds: 12/1)
Best bet: Over 3.5 goals at 2/1
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Cottagers to play it safe
Although it's very difficult to look beyond Arsenal in this meeting, there are reasons to be optimistic as a Fulham supporter.
The Gunners played six league matches on the road after the restart, and lost four. Looking at their two victories, one was an impressive win at Wolves, the other at Southampton, statistically the second-worst home team in last season's top flight.
While there is no denying they're in excellent form - having lost just twice in 12 games - the same can be said for Fulham, whose only defeat in 10 matches was a second-leg loss that was enough to win their Sky Bet Championship play-off semi-final.
The draw at 7/2 doesn't seem ridiculous, and neither does 1-1 at 7/1 when considering the next stat.
That 2-1 home defeat by Cardiff in the play-offs was one of only two occasions during the last 10 matches that Fulham have conceded more than once, recording five clean sheets in that time. For them to keep Arsenal under 1.5 goals is 5/4.
Arsenal to win 1-0, 2-0 or 2-1 at 7/4 seems a likely outcome, especially when you consider that 12 of their 16 wins since the Spaniard's appointment have fallen into that bracket.
Aubameyang to keep Gunners firing
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang ended last season in breathtaking form, scoring nine times in nine starts, before extending that streak by scoring a sublime goal against Liverpool in the Community Shield at Wembley.
So it's no shock to see the Arsenal captain at 8/11 to score anytime and 13/5 first goalscorer. You can also take the score/win double of Aubameyang/Arsenal at 21/20.
If you're on the fence, Aubameyang has scored on the opening day of the league season in four of the last five years, netting five goals in total.
Meanwhile, no Fulham player has scored on the opening day of a campaign since Matt Smith in 2016, with their goal in a 1-1 draw against Norwich a year later coming courtesy of Canaries defender Russel Martin - Arsenal clean sheet is 11/8 and Arsenal win to nil 7/4.
Fulham v Arsenal team news
Fulham manager Scott Parker has no fresh injury concerns as his side kick off their Premier League return by hosting Arsenal on Saturday.
However, new on-loan signing Alphonse Areola could have to wait to make his club debut having only joined from Paris St Germain on Wednesday.
Holland defender Kenny Tete became the club’s latest addition on Thursday, but is unlikely to be included in Parker’s matchday squad immediately.
Arsenal will be without a number of central defensive options for the short trip to west London.
David Luiz (neck) and Sokratis Papastathopoulos (calf) have joined Calum Chambers (knee), Pablo Mari (ankle) and Shkodran Mustafi (hamstring) in the treatment room.
William Saliba and Gabriel Magalhaes could make their debuts at the back, while fellow new signing Willian is in line to make his bow – although Emile Smith Rowe (shoulder) and Gabriel Martinelli (knee) are also out.
Fulham provisional squad: Rodak, Bryan, Le Marchand, Christie, Odoi, Cairney, Reed, Knockaert, Onomah, Decordova-Reid, Mitrovic, Ramirez, Ream, Robinson, Kebano, Zambo Anguissa, Kamara.
Arsenal provisional squad: Leno, Martinez, Bellerin, Soares, Gabriel, Holding, Saliba, Kolasinac, Maitland-Niles, Tierney, Ceballos, Elneny, Guendouzi, Torreira, Willock, Xhaka, Ozil, Nelson, Pepe, Willian, Aubameyang, Lacazette, Nketiah.
Fulham v Arsenal Opta stats
- Fulham have lost each of their last five Premier League matches against Arsenal, conceding nine goals in their two defeats against the Gunners the last time they were in the top-flight in 2018-19 (1-5 home, 1-4 away).
- Arsenal have lost just one of their last 13 Premier League matches against Fulham (W8 D4), going down 1-2 at Craven Cottage in January 2012.
- Arsenal and Fulham have only met on the opening day once previously in the top-flight, with the Gunners coming from behind to beat the Cottagers 2-1 on MD1 in 2007-08.
- Arsenal are looking to win on MD1 in consecutive seasons for the first time since 2009-10 (three in a row), while Fulham have lost their opening day game in each of their last two seasons, 0-2 to Crystal Palace in 2018-19 and 0-1 to Barnsley last term.
- Arsenal are facing a newly-promoted side on MD1 of a Premier League season for a fifth time, losing none of their previous four (W3 D1). Their last league defeat against a promoted side on opening day was back in 1976-77, losing 0-1 at Highbury to Bristol City.
- Fulham have lost their last 10 top-flight London derbies – losing all 10 in the 2018/19 season – the longest ever run by a club in top-flight history.
- Arsenal’s 28 MD1 games in the Premier League have seen a total of 11 red cards, more than any other side in the competition. The Gunners have had six players sent off in the opening game (most recently Laurent Koscielny in 2013-14), while their opponents have been shown five red cards (most recently Jason Puncheon in 2014-15).
- Arsenal haven’t lost any of their last 24 matches in the month of September in all competitions (W19 D5), since a 2-3 home defeat to Olympiakos in the Champions League in 2015.
- Since making his Fulham debut in February 2018, only Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (54), Mo Salah (54) and Jamie Vardy (50) have scored more league goals in England’s top four tiers than Aleksandar Mitrovic (49), with 11 of those coming in the Premier League in 2018-19.
- Arsenal striker Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang has been directly involved in 16 goals in 13 Premier League appearances against newly-promoted opponents (12 goals, 4 assists), scoring three goals and assisting one in two games against Fulham in 2018-19.
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