The 2020/21 Premier League season begins on Saturday and Tom Carnduff picks out four best bets for the opening day.
Recommended bets
1pt Over 3.5 goals in Fulham v Arsenal at 2/1
1pt Southampton to beat Crystal Palace at 29/20
1pt Jack Harrison to have 1+ shots on target in Liverpool v Leeds at 9/4
1pt West Ham to win and under 3.5 goals in the match at 15/8
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Liverpool v Leeds
- 17:30 BST - Sky Sports Premier League
- Big match preview
The stand-out fixture of the opening weekend. Champions v champions; Leeds make their Premier League return and are handed the toughest game possible.
Liverpool won the title comfortably last season but Leeds lifted the Sky Bet Championship trophy with a ten-point gap between themselves and West Brom in second.
That will likely count for little here, just ask Norwich after their first day experience last season, and Liverpool are likely to pick up where they left off as they challenge Manchester City in what should become an exciting title race once again.
The Asian Handicap has Liverpool at -1.5 and as brilliant as Leeds were in the second tier last season, it's hard to really disagree. This game won't define their season and should always been seen as a bit of a free hit for any newly-promoted team.
That's not to say that Leeds won't have opportunities to score though. The one thing we won't see from Marcelo Bielsa's side this season is 'playing for a point' - their head coach wants to win every single game they're involved in and won't be fazed by any opponent.
Leeds' transfer window has been impressive and it's the one area where they've edged Liverpool during the off-season. The arrivals of Spain's starting forward Rodrigo and German international defender Robin Koch represent great business and a statement of intent.
Rodrigo may not be involved here, based on what we know of Bielsa and new signings, but the Leeds boss telling his press conference on Thursday that both new players are ready for Anfield may suggest a shift in attitude that comes with the calibre of player they are now attracting.
One player to keep an eye on was a regular for Leeds in that title-winning season and that's Jack Harrison. He established himself as Bielsa's preferred choice on the left wing and he saw huge improvement in his second season under the Whites' boss.
He had direct involvement in 14 league goals during the 2019/20 campaign but his high number of total shots across the course of the campaign suggests there should have been more. His 54 was the third-most in this Leeds team, with left-back Stuart Dallas taking second spot.
Liverpool will justify their heavy odds-on price tag here but Leeds should give a good account of themselves. They may well grab a goal, although the value comes in the 9/4 price on Harrison having at least one shot on target in this contest.
Score prediction: Liverpool 3-1 Leeds (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)
Opta facts
- Liverpool are unbeaten in their last eight games against Leeds in all competitions (W6 D2), since a 1-2 defeat in April 2001 in the Premier League.
- Leeds have lost their last three away matches against Liverpool in all competitions, with this the Whites’ first trip to Anfield since a 0-2 defeat in the League Cup in November 2016.
- Leeds have played more Premier League matches on MD1 without losing than any other team in the competition’s history (P12 W5 D7), while Liverpool have won six of their last seven games on opening day (D1), scoring 15 goals in their four under Jürgen Klopp (W3 D1).
- This is the seventh time in the Premier League that the reigning champions have faced a newly-promoted side at home on the opening day, with the title-holders winning all six of the previous games. Only two newly-promoted sides have won away at the reigning champions on MD1 in the top-flight – Notts County vs Aston Villa in 1981-82 and West Brom vs Arsenal in 1931-32.
- The winner of the previous season’s Championship hasn’t won their opening day Premier League match since Sunderland in 2007-08 against Spurs – all 12 sides since have failed to win (D3 L9), including Norwich last season, who lost 1-4 at Anfield against Liverpool.
- Liverpool have only lost once on the opening day of a top-flight season when they are reigning champions in 18 previous seasons (W12 D5), losing 0-2 against West Brom in the 1923-24 campaign.
West Ham v Newcastle
- 20:00 BST - Sky Sports Premier League
Describing this game as an entertaining choice for a Saturday night may well get me in trouble for false advertising but it's a result that could have a significant impact on the final Premier League table in May.
That may seem like an odd statement to make given how this is their opening fixture but both West Ham and Newcastle could well find themselves becoming relegation rivals; the hosts maybe more so than the visitors.
The Hammers are a club who never seem too far away from problems but for a number of issues to be present before the season has even begun is a major concern; their transfer window activity being the biggest as they look to kick-on from a poor campaign in 2019/20.
Tomas Soucek's permanent arrival is a big plus, and there are some conflicting reports regarding his availability for this one following a positive Covid test for a member of staff in the Czech Republic camp during the international break, but the departure of Grady Diangana seems the defining moment for West Ham in this window.
To allow their best young talent to leave would always be seen as bad news, but for that to be to West Brom, a team who they should consider rivals in terms of the division next season, is worse. Mark Noble's Tweet best summed up the mood in the camp: 'As captain of this football club I’m gutted, angry and sad that Grady has left, great kid with a great future!'
As captain of this football club I’m gutted, angry and sad that Grady has left, great kid with a great future!!!!! https://t.co/oNPPEp8Pt6
— MARK NOBLE (@Noble16Mark) September 4, 2020
A positive is the fact that they welcome a Newcastle side who have issues of their own on the playing side of things, although they have tried to address it with the additions of Callum Wilson, Jamal Lewis and Ryan Fraser, but the Asian Handicap still favours West Ham slightly.
New players may be welcomed for Newcastle but they should have been in more of a relegation scrap last season. The Infogol xGD model had them as the second-biggest negative difference behind Norwich. Their actual GD should have been -29.6 but there was some luck involved in the defensive side of things.
Defence still looks an area of concern for Steve Bruce even with Lewis coming in at left-back and it'll be a battle for them to avoid being the worst xG side once again this season. West Ham have problems, but at least they can paper over some cracks by welcoming Newcastle to the London Stadium.
It doesn't appear likely to be a high-scoring contest but the money may be right in saying that West Ham will edge what could be a forgettable affair.
The Hammers are shades of odd-against with 6/5 the best price available on victory. Instead, though, backing a home win with under 3.5 goals in the match provides a much more appealing 15/8 with Sky Bet which is where the best bet can be found.
Score prediction: West Ham 1-0 Newcastle (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Opta facts
- West Ham have scored two or more goals in each of their last five Premier League games against Newcastle United; only versus Blackburn Rovers in March 2007 have they had a longer such scoring run against a team in the competition (7 games).
- Newcastle United have won nine Premier League away games against West Ham United – only versus Tottenham Hotspur (10) have they picked up more wins on the road in the competition.
- Newcastle United have lost 11 Premier League games on MD1, only opponents West Ham United have lost more such matches in the competition’s history (13).
- West Ham have lost their opening league match of the season in the last four seasons, shipping at least four goals in each of the last three. The last top-flight team to lose their opening league match in five consecutive seasons was Wimbledon between 1986-87 and 1990-91.
- Newcastle have lost their first league match of the season in six of the last seven campaigns, drawing the other. Their last opening day win was back in 2012-13, when they beat Spurs at St. James’ Park.
- Newcastle have lost 79 away Premier League matches in London, more than any other side, while manager Steve Bruce has won just 17% of his away games in the capital in the top-flight (P59 W10 D14 L35).
Crystal Palace v Southampton
- 15:00 BST - BT Sport
It's the big question on everyone's lips heading into the new Premier League season...will Crystal Palace actually score some goals?
Ok, not quite, but it was still a major area of concern for Roy Hodgson's side with just 31 coming in 38 games - only bottom of the table Norwich scored fewer.
They've looked to address it in the transfer window and the arrival of the very talented Eberechi Eze from QPR will provide support to the forward line. The issue of bolstering that central striker area remains but they are looking to solve it with a move for Chelsea's Michy Batshuayi.
It's always hard to place a team like Crystal Palace with relegation never looking like an issue but pushing for the meaningful positions out of the question. Instead, the focus will be on Southampton and if they can continue their great overall form that came following that 9-0 defeat to Leicester.
Saints fans are bored of hearing about it I'm sure but it was a pivotal moment in not just last season but Southampton under Ralph Hasenhuttl going forward. They now appear to be a side who could battle to become the 'best of the rest' in the Premier League.
It will be interesting to see how the percentage of home wins is affected by an extended period of matches played without spectators. While hopes may be there for supporters to return in some capacity, it just seems unlikely we'll welcome full stadiums at any point this season.
In the short-term, away teams could well benefit but both teams suffer as a result of a lack of supporters. That, much like the opening weekend of the new campaign, is largely down to speculation and opinion.
Southampton have become a much stronger outfit though and they'll be targeting fixtures such as this for victory if they are to push for a top-seven finish. A better start to last season would have seen them easily in the top-half.
The Asian Handicap edges towards an away win with the Saints at -0.25. A tight contest could be expected but Southampton will justify their 29/20 price on victory if they pick up where they left off from the 2019/20 campaign.
The duo of Danny Ings and Che Adams will surely bring goals while they coped well without Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg's presence at the end of last season. This looks a well-balanced Southampton team and they can kick off the season with all three points at Selhurst Park.
Score prediction: Crystal Palace 0-1 Southampton (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
Best bet: Southampton to win at 29/20
Opta facts
- Crystal Palace have won just three of their 22 Premier League matches against Southampton (D6 L13), with this the first time they’ve met on the opening day.
- Southampton have won their last three away Premier League visits to Crystal Palace without conceding a single goal; Saints have never won four consecutive away top-flight matches against an opponent.
- Although this is their first Premier League meeting on the opening day, Crystal Palace and Southampton did meet on MD1 in 2007-08 in the Championship, with the Eagles winning 4-1 at St. Mary’s and James Scowcroft scoring a hat-trick.
- The home side hasn’t won any of the last six Premier League meetings between Crystal Palace and Southampton (D2 L4). The hosts had won five in a row in this fixture prior to this run.
- In the six opening day Premier League matches when Crystal Palace have played at home, they are yet to win (D2 L4); their last top-flight win at home on opening day came back in 1971-72, winning 2-0 against Newcastle United.
- Among teams to have played in at least 10 Premier League seasons, Southampton have the worst win percentage on MD1 in the competition, winning just two out of 21 (9.5%).
Fulham v Arsenal
- 12:30 BST - BT Sport
- Big match preview
A Premier League season like no other has had its knock-on effect for the 2020/21 campaign and while everyone has had to adapt to a shortened off-season, Fulham have been dealt the toughest cards.
They secured their promotion back to the top-flight of English football with victory over Brentford in the play-off final. That took place on August 4, a year and one day after the start of their successful campaign got underway. That was also over a week after the Premier League season ended.
This season has to be different to the last time they were at this level and Scott Parker is aware of that. That's not just down to trying to avoid relegation but also how they prepare their squad and the transfers they make. They welcomed 13 new faces before the start of their last Premier League campaign; this window has seen five with two being at the club last season.
If the shortened time away from competitive action wasn't bad enough for Fulham, they kick-off the season with a contest against an Arsenal side who look like they are capable of being at the right end of the table under Mikel Arteta. Top-four will surely be their aim, and based on what we saw during the second-half of last season, they could well do it.
I'm not going to go into greater detail as to why that may be here, you can find all that in our outright preview, but Arsenal will be more prepared for this contest than Fulham, even if the hosts are coming in to the game with decent momentum from the Sky Bet Championship.
Really looking forward to watching Mikel Arteta’s Arsenal this season tbh.pic.twitter.com/YvnjZernlU
— Tom Carnduff (@TomC_22) August 29, 2020
That's partly down to time of course but they were also successful over Liverpool in the Community Shield. A glorified friendly some might say; but that is to take nothing away from an Arsenal side who performed well on the day.
That game again further highlighted the importance of Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang to this Arsenal team. The best bit of business that the Gunners could have done during this transfer window was keeping him at the club; that appears to be something that they will achieve.
He's a fancy for the Golden Boot and this will be a game where he'll back himself to be on the scoresheet. Aubameyang is odds-on for a goal anytime, but the real value is in backing overs in the match goals market.
It's always difficult to make certain predictions based on it being the start of the season and one of these teams not even being in this division last time out, but it must be acknowledged that Fulham should have conceded more goals than they did in the Championship.
Their Expected Goals Conceded metric had them conceding nearly 12 more than they did. The 59.8 gives them the 10th best defensive record, as opposed to fourth in actual goals against, and that is a concern against a side who are getting stronger in attack.
Goals scored wasn't an issue and their xG figure is in line with their position in the table but the defensive side of their team remains a concern and a back-up left-back arriving isn't necessarily enough to address that right now.
Arsenal have defensive issues of their own with David Luiz battling to be fit while Shkodran Mustafi, Pablo Mari and Calum Chambers are all recovering from injuries of their own. It appears to be a contest where the odds-on price for both teams to score should be hit.
The visitors finished sixth in the 'over 3.5 match goals standings' last season and that trend should continue while they balance a few problems in the back line in the early stages of the new campaign.
Score prediction: Fulham 1-3 Arsenal (Sky Bet odds: 12/1)
Best bet: Over 3.5 goals at 2/1
Opta facts
- Fulham have lost each of their last five Premier League matches against Arsenal, conceding nine goals in their two defeats against the Gunners the last time they were in the top-flight in 2018-19 (1-5 home, 1-4 away).
- Arsenal have lost just one of their last 13 Premier League matches against Fulham (W8 D4), going down 1-2 at Craven Cottage in January 2012.
- Arsenal and Fulham have only met on the opening day once previously in the top-flight, with the Gunners coming from behind to beat the Cottagers 2-1 on MD1 in 2007-08.
- Arsenal are looking to win on MD1 in consecutive seasons for the first time since 2009-10 (three in a row), while Fulham have lost their opening day game in each of their last two seasons, 0-2 to Crystal Palace in 2018-19 and 0-1 to Barnsley last term.
- Arsenal are facing a newly-promoted side on MD1 of a Premier League season for a fifth time, losing none of their previous four (W3 D1). Their last league defeat against a promoted side on opening day was back in 1976-77, losing 0-1 at Highbury to Bristol City.
- Fulham have lost their last 10 top-flight London derbies – losing all 10 in the 2018/19 season – the longest ever run by a club in top-flight history.
Odds correct at 1645 BST (10/09/20)
Follow Sporting Life on social - find us on Facebook here or tweet @SportingLifeFC
Related football content
Responsible gambling
We are committed in our support of responsible gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133, or visit begambleaware.org.
Further support and information can be found at GamCare and gamblingtherapy.org.
