Jake Pearson's profitable Beat the Market column returns to preview the upcoming Premier League action, attempting to identify early value.
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- Beat the Market tipping record: 33.5 points staked | +39.71 points returned
Football betting tips: Premier League
2pts West Ham to beat Newcastle at 7/10 (General)
1pt Manchester United to beat Leeds at evens (Sky Bet)
West Ham v Newcastle
West Ham and Newcastle arrive into this fixture in contrasting form, the Hammers struggling to make significant strides in their quest for a top-four finish, while the Magpies travel to the London Stadium on the back of three successive victories.
West Ham have won two of their last three, and in fact haven’t lost since Marcus Rashford’s late winner back in January, but a come-from-behind, extra-time victory over Kiddermister in the FA Cup was hardly a boost, and even against Watford, David Moyes’ men needed a deflected Jarrod Bowen goal to claim all three points against Roy Hodgson’s side.
Though starting well against Leicester at the weekend, taking an early lead through yet another Bowen strike, the Foxes produced a decent second-half display, and looked to be taking all three points before Craig Dawson’s late equaliser.
It was another underwhelming performance from the Irons, with their last three Premier League matches seeing them average just 0.75 expected goals for (xGF), a big drop-off from the 1.73 xGF they had averaged across their previous 22 fixtures.
That West Ham failed to create more than 1.0 xGF against a team that, coming into the fixture, held statistically the worst defence in terms of xG since Infogol began collecting data, was disappointing, but there is reason to believe that Moyes’ side will quickly snap out of this trend.
Leicester are currently the worst defensive team in the Premier League based on Expected Goals Against (xGA).
— Sporting Life Football & Infogol (@InfogolApp) February 13, 2022
Since Infogol started collecting xG data in 2014, no team has possessed a worst defensive process. None. Not even relegated teams.#LCFC pic.twitter.com/shYQrIVS9B
Earlier in the season, the Hammers endured a similar blip, failing to score for two matches whilst also failing to the hit 1.0 xGF mark, but they responded by generating 9.58 xGF across their following four matches, scoring 11 times.
Also, West Ham are yet to record an xGF total of lower than 1.0 xGF at home this season, and this fixture against Newcastle could be a good opportunity to get back into their creative stride.
As mentioned, the Magpies are on a run of three successive league victories, but while their 3-1 win over Everton was undoubtedly deserved, fairness ratings of 66% and 68% for their wins over Leeds and Aston Villa respectively demonstrate how the points could have gone either way.
Newcastle have certainly become more solid of late, conceding just one across their last three, but the injury to Kieren Trippier at the weekend is a huge blow for Eddie Howe, both defensively and going forward, the full-back having already contributed two goals in four starts.
Momentum is obviously a huge factor in football, but it can sometimes skew match prices, with too much weight applied to the most recent results and narrative also taking over from analysis and logical thinking.
Contrarian betting is based on the theory that not enough emphasis is placed on coincidence when considering a team in form. A run of successive wins are often attributed far too heavily to a sudden upturn in ability, rather than the reality that luck has played a rather large part.
Here, West Ham, the team currently fourth in the Premier League, are 7/10 to beat Newcastle, who are just one place above the relegation zone.
Arsenal, who are behind the Hammers in the league, albeit with games in hand, were as short as 1/2 to beat the Magpies at the Emirates towards the back end of last year.
Perhaps even more interesting though, were the respective prices of Everton and Southampton to beat Newcastle at home prior to those fixtures being postponed.
The struggling Toffees and the Saints, who at that point were on a run of eight matches without a victory, were both 7/10 on the Betfair Exchange.
Contrasting form or not, the current price about a WEST HAM WIN looks far too big and is the first recommended bet of this week’s column.
Leeds v Manchester United
Leeds welcome Manchester United to Elland Road on Sunday. Well, perhaps ‘welcome’ is the wrong choice of word for one of the fiercest rivalries in English football.
Despite the transformation produced at the Yorkshire club by Marcelo Bielsea, the Argentine manager is coming under increasing pressure as results are becoming ever-more difficult to come by via his unique methods.
Even die-hard Bielsa fanatics are beginning to question the direction of the club under the former Bilbao coach, and a heavy defeat to Manchester United would be a massive nail in the coffin of a man who, despite what may come, will undoubtedly be lauded in Leeds for many a year; Leeds fans are not the type to quickly forget, as many of us know all too well.
Kick-off time: 14:00 GMT, Sunday
TV Channel: Sky Sports Main Event
Leeds 12/5 | Draw 11/4 | Man United 1/1
There is a very real possibility that Ralf Rangnick’s men do a number on Leeds though, and a price of even money for a MANCHESTER UNITED WIN makes appeal.
The Red Devils are hosting Brighton on Tuesday, which throws a spanner in the works somewhat, and perhaps their price to win this fixture on Sunday will be affected by events in midweek, but it is probably best to view their match-up against Graham Potter’s men as an uncontrollable variable. After all, how much difference can/should one result make?
A 1-1 draw to Southampton at the weekend was ultimately disappointing for Rangnick’s men, particularly as they had enough chances to claim all three points, but gradual improvement is still happening at Old Trafford, even if it is difficult to see.
That Rangnick would produce instant results is now obviously an incorrect assumption, though that was always likely to be the case; see Jurgen Klopp at Liverpool.
Across their last three Premier League matches Manchester United have won one and drawn two, but have created enough good quality opportunities according to expected goals (xG), to suggest they could have claimed all nine available points.
United have won the ‘xG battle’ in seven of Rangnick’s 10 league matches in charge, with the Red Devils surpassing 1.0 xG on all but two occasions.
Against a Leeds side that concede goals and chances at a worrying rate, United should have more than ample opportunities to go ahead, and though the Old Trafford outfit are often disparaged for their backline, they have conceded just eight goals under Rangnick – only once conceded more than one – and have limited their opponents to less than 1.0 xG in each of their last three matches.
Expect United to take control of this fixture and emerge victorious in a relatively low-scoring affair.
Odds correct at 1200 GMT (14/02/21)
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