Jake Osgathorpe uses Infogol's xG model to assess the Champions League knockout stage, picking out some best bets in the 'to qualify' market.
Using Infogol's xG model and probabilities, this article will aim to provide a verdict for who will progress to the quarter finals, but also if there are any value bets based on the prices available.
- 'To qualify odds' are in brackets next to team names and via Sky Bet
Champion League betting tips: Last 16
2pts PSG to qualify v Real Madrid at 3/4 (General)
2pts Villarreal to qualify v Juventus at 7/4 (Sky Bet)
1pt Benfica to qualify v Ajax at 3/1 (Sky Bet)
Atletico Madrid (5/4) v Manchester United (4/7)
- First leg - Wednesday, February 23
- Second leg - Tuesday, March 15
The thinking after the draw for the last 16 was made in December was that Manchester United would benefit the most from the first leg not being played until February, giving Ralf Rangnick more time to work with his players and implement his system.
However, there have been more teething issues than would have been imagined, and the Red Devils don't look too hot heading into their tie with reigning La Liga champions Atletico Madrid.
United have averaged 1.63 xGF and 1.26 xGA per game in the Premier League under the German manager, far from breathtaking, and while it can be said that no one really wants to draw Atletico Madrid in a two-legged knockout tie, this current Atleti outfit have problems of their own heading into the clash.
They qualified for the last 16 on the final matchday, posted a negative expected goal difference (xGD) of -0.3 across their six group games, and failed to win any of their three home matches.
Couple that with their domestic form, where they are well off the pace in La Liga, and have conceded two or more goals in seven of their last eight league games, and United will fancy their chances of progressing.
The Red Devils were in an easier group, but topped it before their interim coach was appointed, so we can't read too much into the fact they deserved to finish third based on expected points (xPoints).
While United have been steady on the whole under Rangnick, the schedule they have faced has been extremely kind, and Atletico, even in their current guise, represent a big step up from anything the Red Devils have faced under the German.
The Infogol model suggests there is marginal value in backing Atleti to progress, but it is a no bet from me - a watching brief.
Selection - No bet
Champions League outright winner odds (via Sky Bet)
- 9/4 - Manchester City
- 7/2 - Liverpool
- 9/2 - Bayern Munich
- 7/1 - PSG
- 9/1 - Chelsea
- 16/1 - Ajax
- 22/1 - Manchester United
- 28/1 - Juventus, Real Madrid
Odds correct at 1020 (21/02/22)
Villarreal (7/4) v Juventus (2/5)
- First leg - Tuesday, February 22
- Second leg - Wednesday, March 16
Many will look at this tie and see 'Juventus' and think they will progress comfortably.
Unfortunately for the Italian giants, this won't be so easy. I wouldn't be surprised to see them exit at this stage for a third straight season after bowing out to Lyon (19/20) and Porto (20/21).
They aren't the team they used to be, when they were certainties to reach the quarter-finals at the very least, and despite reappointing a man who guided them to two finals in three seasons, Massimiliano Allegri, the Old Lady has struggled this term.
Juve are well off the pace in Serie A, and while they have recruited well in January, bringing in Dusan Vlahovic from Fiorentina, and their domestic form has picked up from a poor start to the campaign, Villarreal are one of the trickier last-16 opponents they could have drawn.
Unai Emery has a rich history in European competitions, most recently winning the Europa League last season, and they were the best team in Group F, being unfortunate to finish behind Manchester United based on xPoints, posting a far superior xG process (+3.8 xGD).
They generated 2.20 xGF per game in the group stage, and have recently found consistency in La Liga to climb the table, they are an underdog to be feared.
The bookies don't think that's the case, pricing Juve as short as 2/5 to progress, which means there is plenty of value in backing Villarreal to progress.
Infogol's model makes the Yellow Submarine a 5/4 (44.3%) shot to make it to the quarters, and with Emery at the helm, it really is a possibility.
Selection - Villarreal to qualify at 7/4
Benfica (3/1) v Ajax (2/9)
- First leg - Wednesday, February 23
- Second leg - Tuesday, March 15
Benfica qualified in front of Barcelona, deserving credit for doing so, with Jorge Jesus' side showing the capabilities they have, especially in attack.
They averaged 1.44 xGF per game in four matches that weren't against Bayern Munich, while allowing 1.05 xGA per game in those four contests.
Ajax were explosive on their way to topping Group C, finishing a place above Benfica's Lisbon rivals Sporting.
Sebastien Haller was the headline star of the group stage, netting 10 times from chances equating to 7.69 xGF as Ajax scored 20 from 15.6 xGF in six wins.
Benfica will ask some interesting questions of this eye-catching Ajax side, who will be looking to replicate their deep run to the semi finals in 2018/19.
They will likely progress to the quarter-finals here, and are rightly favourites to do so, but the value lies in backing the Portuguese outfit to advance.
At 2/7 generally, the Dutch side are just too short, with the quality gap between these two sides not as big as the odds suggest.
The Infogol model calculates Benfica have a 28.5% (5/2) chance of progressing, so the 3/1 price generally on offer is too big and should be chanced.
Selection - Benfica to qualify at 3/1 (General)
Chelsea (2/9) v Lille (3/1)
- First leg - Tuesday, February 22
- Second leg - Wednesday, March 16
Chelsea v Lille was the only tie both drawn in the initial, incorrect, draw and the correctly done draw.
The Blues will have been pleased about that, as of all the group winners the reigning champions could have faced, Lille were probably the preferred opponent.
Thomas Tuchel's side blew their chance of winning their group by only drawing with Dynamo Kyiv in their final group game, though they deserved to finish top of Group H according to xPoints.
Their process throughout the group stage was excellent (2.17 xGF, 0.82 xGA per game), and they are rightly strong favourites to progress to the quarter-finals.
After a funky December, the Blues appear to be heading in the right direction once again, which would make them a serious contender to defend their title and with the Champions League again.
Lille deservedly finished top of a competitive Group G, with their defensive solidity seeing them make it through (0.92 xGA per game).
The French champions had a poor start to the season domestically, but having picked up in terms of results before Christmas, they have stalled again since.
Over two legs, it is difficult to make a strong case that Lille will prevail, even if Chelsea's unvaccinated players can't play in the away (second) leg, and the Infogol model thinks the French side should be closer to 4/1 (19.6%) than the general 3/1 available.
There is a slither of value in backing the Blues, but who would back a 2/9 shot, eh?
Selection - No bet
Inter Milan (3/1) v Liverpool (2/9)
- First leg - Wednesday, February 16
- Second leg - Tuesday, March 8
Inter Milan are purring.
Yes they were second best in their UCL group, but their only defeats were to Real Madrid, and based on xPoints, they should have finished top.
Simone Inzaghi has done an excellent job picking up from where Antonio Conte left off, with the Milanese side leading Serie A after a stellar run of results, playing some breathtaking attacking football to boot.
However, they are up against a juggernaut over two legs, a Liverpool side who have been incredible this season both domestically and in the Champions League.
Jurgen Klopp's side made navigating the so-called 'group of death' look incredibly easy, winning all six group games against Porto, Atletico Madrid and AC Milan.
They did it in style too, scoring 17 goals and conceding just six, while averaging an incredible 2.25 xGF and 1.17 xGA per game. Against difficult opposition, that is outstanding.
Many are fancying the Reds to go deep in this competition, currently third favourites to win it, and it is hard to argue that they won't go far.
Klopp has a near fully-fit squad to call upon for the first time this season, and with the addition of Luis Diaz in January, has extra depth in forward areas.
Liverpool are strongly fancied by both the bookies and the Infogol model to progress, and that is no slight on a good Inter side, it is just an acceptance of how good the Reds are.
At the prices though, little appeals.
Selection - No bet
PSG (4/6) v Real Madrid (11/10)
- First leg - Tuesday, February 15
- Second leg - Wednesday, March 9
The team famed as once being the Galacticos take on the new, souped-up version.
These sides have almost flip-flopped in recent years.
One has gone from being a team of excellent individuals to one of the best all-round teams in Europe. The other has acquired all the best talent from across the continent to create a star-studded XI.
This clash also brings us the return of Sergio Ramos to the team he captained for more than a decade, Lionel Messi facing the team he haunted for even longer, a former PSG coach in Carlo Ancelotti taking on his former team and, of course, the young superstar Kylian Mbappe who Real Madrid are hotly pursuing to sign on a free transfer in the summer.
It is going to be an excellent tie, and it does feel as though PSG may have finally have figured things out under Mauricio Pochettino.
Recent contests domestically suggest that a balance has finally been found, with Les Parisiens operating in a semi-Liverpool-based style - using the attacking full backs to support a front three and playing three hard workers in midfield who don't need to contribute to goals or assists.
The only difference between Liverpool and PSG is that Liverpool's front three press, PSG's don't, so it will be interesting to see how a wily coach like Carlo Ancelotti plans to disrupt and exploit the French side.
Madrid are a well-drilled team with a clear plan, but PSG's individual quality is undeniable.
If these sides were in a league season together, I would take Madrid to pick up more points as they can be trusted week in, week out. But PSG's game-to-game ceiling is so much higher, and knockout games are won in moments by individuals.
At a best price of 3/4 (57.1%), Les Parisiens look a bet to qualify, with Infogol calculating they have a 58.2% (8/11) chance of doing so.
Selection - PSG to qualify at 3/4 (General)
Salzburg (13/2) v Bayern Munich (1/14)
- First leg - Wednesday, February 16
- Second leg - Tuesday, March 8
Salzburg have the unenviable task of facing Bayern Munich over two legs and it's hard to see anything other than a German procession.
The Austrian side rightly finished second in Group G behind Lille, and posted decent underlying numbers of 1.70 xGF and 1.13 xGA per game albeit in one of the weakest groups.
This is a huge step up in class, with Bayern six for six in the UCL and boasting a comfortable lead in the Bundesliga.
Their xGD of +12.9 was the best of any team in the group stage. They are rightly the second favourites to win the competition.
These two sides met in the group stage last season - Bayern won 6-2 and 3-1. Something similar over these two legs wouldn't be a surprise.
At the prices though, it's a no bet, with Julian Nagelsmann's side rightly short-priced favourites to advance.
Selection - No bet
Sporting Lisbon (13/2) v Manchester City (1/14)
- First leg - Tuesday, February 15
- Second leg - Wednesday, March 9
Sporting Lisbon qualified ahead of the much-fancied Dortmund in Group C, with their superior head-to-head record seeing them progress.
Defensively they were exposed at times though, allowing 1.52 xGA per game, a figure that will have Manchester City licking their lips.
City were the best attacking team in the group stage based on expected goals, averaging a whopping 2.80 xGF per game in Group A.
Accompanying that, Pep's side allowed just 0.92 xGA per game, and it is clear given their performances domestically that they are hitting top gear.
The price available for City to progress is correct, with it extremely unlikely that Sporting Lisbon make it into the quarter finals.
Selection - No bet
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