Manchester United travel to in form Everton on Sunday evening, and Jake Osgathorpe previews the game, providing his best bet.
Football betting tips: Premier League
2.5pts Both teams 20+ booking points at 11/10 (Sky Bet)
2pts Everton or Draw double chance at 5/6 (SportNation, 10bet)
Writing the words 'Everton' and 'in form' side by side is not something I thought I would be writing at any stage this season, but here we are.
The Toffees are unbeaten in six league games, winning their last two, and their underlying metrics have them trending in a positive direction.
Frank Lampard's side have started creating chances, rectifying their main weakness at the start of the season, and that spells trouble for the visiting Manchester United.
In total this season, the Toffees have averaged 1.46 xGF per game, a solid uptick on last season's figures under Lampard (1.08).
Defensively, there remains work to do, but the huge positive heading into this game is that it takes place at fortress Goodison.
You may think I'm joking, but Everton have been an incredibly difficult team to beat at home of late, losing just two of their last 10, winning five.
Across that time, they have faced six teams who finished in last season's top seven, so it's not been a cakewalk of a schedule.
The Toffees have averaged a competitive 1.10 xGF and 1.36 xGA per game, highlighting their dogged and determined style that sees few chances created.
All of that spells trouble for a vulnerable Manchester United side who continue to show weakness in defensive areas.
Excluding the six goals and 3.06 xGA conceded to Manchester City last weekend, United have allowed 1.53 xGA per game this season, with their only decent defensive display coming at Leicester against the second worst attack in the league based on xGF.
They have shown flashes in attack, but not enough for me to think they should be near odds-on favourites here, and I'm happy to swing the other way and back EVERTON OR DRAW DOUBLE CHANCE at a generous 5/6.
As mentioned already, this bet would have won in eight of the Toffees last 10 home league games, with that run of fixtures seeing a tough level of opponent, so getting the hosts onside makes plenty of appeal.
My favourite bet of the game though comes in the cards market.
BOTH TEAMS 20+ BOOKING POINTS looks a whopping price at 11/10 given both teams records this season and the refereeing appointment. On the main market, Sky Bet are only showing even money (which is still a value bet), but by going through the bet builder we can get the 11/10 price.
Everton have collected 20+ booking points in seven of their eight league games this season and in all four home league games, while Manchester United have racked up 20+ booking points in 100% of their league outings this term.
Add in the fact that David Coote is the man in the middle, and the price starts to look huge.
Admittedly, Coote has been slow out of the blocks with the cards in this season's top flight, brandishing seven in three games, but I expect him to be busy here and if he gets anywhere near to his record of last season this bet will fly in.
In the 21/22 Premier League campaign, Coote averaged a whopping 4.9 cards per game. He oversaw two Everton games, with this bet landing in both, while dishing out two yellows to Manchester United the only time he reffed them.
This fixture last season also saw this bet land in a 1-0 Everton win, and I expect a similarly feisty game as both search for a positive result.
Everton v Manchester United score prediction and best bets
- 2.5pts Both teams 20+ booking points at 11/10 (Sky Bet)
- 2pts Everton or Draw double chance at 5/6 (SportNation, 10bet)
Score prediction: Everton 2-1 Manchester United (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)
Odds correct 1220 BST (06/10/22)
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