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Serie A tips: Weekend best bets and previews
James Cantrill looks for winners from Serie A, picking out four best bets for the weekend slate.
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Football betting tips: Serie A
2pts Rafael Leao to Score or Assist in AC Milan v Juventus at 7/5 (Betfair Sportsbook, Paddy Power)
1.5pts Lazio Draw No Bet v Fiorentina at 11/10 (General)
0.5pts on Nascimento Bremer Card to be Shown a Card in AC Milan v Juventus at 3/1 (Sky Bet)
0.5pts Cristiano Biraghi Assist in Fiorentina v Lazio at 17/2 (Betfair Sportsbook, Paddy Power)
Fiorentina v Lazio
- Kick-off time: 19:45 BST, Monday
- TV Channel: BT Sport 2
- Fiorentina 11/8 | Draw 12/5 | Lazio 19/10
Lazio’s trip to Tuscany concludes match week nine in Serie A.
The hosts have only won one of their last 10 games in all competitions, picking up just five league points since their opening day victory over Cremonese.
At 6/4, the hosts are marginal favourites here, taking into account home advantage, however, given their record last season against the top six, it is hard to make a case for them.
Vincenzo Italiano's side dropped points in two thirds of those 12 clashes, losing on seven occasions.
LAZIO did the double over La Viola last campaign, which is just part of the reason why I think the 2/1 about them to win at the Artemio Franchi Stadium is too big.
The Eagles come into this one having won each of their last three games, scoring ten in the process without conceding, meaning they boast both the second greatest attack and defence in the league.
Maurizio Sarri’s side started the weekend just three points behind league leaders Napoli, with an identical goal difference.
I do not think the gulf in price between the sides reflects the respective quality, pedigree and form, which is why I think siding with the visitors makes sense.
Taking Lazio DRAW NO BET is an angle that is yet to lose in the league for Lazio on their travels this season and provides some extra security then taking them on the nose.
In last week's preview I tipped CRISTIANO BIRAGHI to register an assist.
It was a familiar story for Fiorentina’s left back though as nobody could convert the chances he created, despite completing four key passes in his side's 1-0 defeat to Atalanta.
The defender is averaging 3.4 key passes per game, now the second highest total in the division, registering at least one in each of his seven league appearances, and a staggering eight against Cremonese.
With those latest key passes taken into consideration, Biraghi has generated an xA of 1.24, an average of 0.20 per game, building on last season's galling tally of 6.32 xA.
Since the beginning of the 21/22 campaign, despite his best efforts, he has only managed one assist, yet he has generated an xA of 7.56.
Based on this xA average of 0.18, 6/1 to have a hand in a goal would represent value on Monday evening.
Score Prediction: Fiorentina 1-2 Lazio (Sky Bet odds: 17/2)
Odds correct 16:30 BST (06/10/22)
AC Milan v Juventus
- Kick-off time: 17:00 BST, Saturday
- TV Channel: BT Sport 1
- AC Milan 21/20 | Draw 23/10 | Juventus 11/4
The cynosure of Italian football takes place on Saturday evening at San Siro as the Scudetto holders lock horns with the country's most decorated side.
Amidst a turbulent campaign, Juventus had enjoyed some respite after securing back-to-back victories, scoring six goals in the process.
Massimiliano Allegri’s side's 3-0 victory over Bologna last time out in Serie A was their first victory since August.
This victory does little to paper over the Old Lady’s poor start to proceedings though, they remain seven points off the pace and, at 14/5, are not expected to make it two wins on the spin in the league for the first time this season at the weekend.
Despite only sitting two places above them, Milan are much closer to the helm of the division and with the sides above them not in action until late on in the weekend, a win will temporarily move Stefano Pioli’s side level on points with the division's frontrunners Napoli and Atalanta.
This calendar year, only three players in Europe’s top five divisions have scored 10 goals and registered 10 assists; Neymar, Kevin De Bruyne and RAFAEL LEAO, and it is this confounding consistency that is causing clubs to consider his £150m buy-out clause.
The frontman was pivotal in Milan’s Scudetto serge last season, scoring and assisting eight goals in their last seven games.
That flurry meant he finished the season as Milan’s top goalscorer (11) and racked up the most assists (10). He also topped their shooting charts, hitting the target more than anybody else, and completed the second most key passes at the club.
Zlatan Ibrahimovic is one of Leao’s many admirers, but like most was sceptical of him reaching his potential due to his attitude. However, with the Portuguese international hitting 11 goals or assists in as many games this season, it looks like the penny has dropped.
Leao boasts a career G+A average of 0.70, that is across 129 domestic appearances, and based on this figure anything over 4/5 for him to have a direct hand in a goal on Saturday represents significant value.
Therefore, the 7/5 about him to SCORE OR ASSIST with the Betfair Sportsbook and Paddy Power is certainly worth taking.
Operating on the left hand side of attack, Leao’s game has been likened to Thierry Henry and, like the Frenchman, his ability to effortlessly glide with the ball has proved problematic for his direct opponents.
Last season, no player in the Italian top flight came close to his tally of 98 dribbles, which is why it will come as no surprise to see he drew cards from his direct opponents in 32% of his league starts.
Leao has continued in this tricky vein this season, drawing cards in over half of his seven appearances.
Backing his direct opponent TO BE SHOWN A CARD looks like a worthy punt here, especially when you consider Daniele Orsato has the whistle.
The Italian has not been at his card wheeling best this campaign, but has dished out over 1,450 in 261 Serie A games he has overseen.
There is some uncertainty as to who exactly will be opposing Leao. In the last four games, Allegri has played three different players in two different systems.
AC Milan's mercurial attacker could be opposing either Cuadrado, Danilo, Mattia De Sciglio or NASCIMENTO BREMER depending on if Juve opt for a back three or four.
The official tip is going to be Bremer, but this could change with the team news, so keep an eye out for the line-ups on Saturday evening.
Score Prediction: AC Milan 3-0 Juventus (Sky Bet odds: 18/1)
Odds correct 16:40 BST (06/10/22)
Weekend best bets: Serie A
- 2pts Rafael Leao to Score or Assist in AC Milan v Juventus at 7/5 (Betfair Sportsbook, Paddy Power)
- 1.5pts Lazio Draw No Bet v Fiorentina at 11/10 (General)
- 0.5pts on Nascimento Bremer Card to be Shown a Card in AC Milan v Juventus at 3/1 (Sky Bet)
- 0.5pts Cristiano Biraghi Assist in Fiorentina v Lazio at 17/2 (Betfair Sportsbook, Paddy Power)
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