Jake Pearson previews the Round of 16 match between Wales and Denmark, providing a best bet and score prediction.
Euro 2020 betting tips: Wales v Denmark
2pts Denmark to win in 90 minutes at 17/20 (General)
After an hour had passed in Wales’ opening game of Euro 2020 against Switzerland, you would have been forgiven for fearing the worst for Robert Page’s side, Wales 1-0 down and looking bereft of any ideas whatsoever, being completely dominated by a very accomplished looking Swiss side.
Kieffer Moore popped up with a vital equaliser in the 74th minute however, and that moment drastically changed the momentum of Wales’ tournament.
Wales recorded a meagre 41% of possession against Switzerland and created just an 18% share of the Expected Goals (xG: WAL 0.57 - 2.60 SUI), but their performance against Turkey in their next fixture could not have been more contrasting, playing on the front foot and creating a whopping amount of goal-scoring opportunities – the 3.83 Expected Goals they created is still (at the time of writing) the highest xG recorded by a team in a single match at this summer’s Euros.
Kick-off time: 17:00 BST, Saturday
TV Channel: BBC One
Venue: Johan Cruijff Arena - Amsterdam, Netherlands
Wales 19/5 | Draw 12/5 | Denmark 4/5
Wales’ final group game, against a formidable Italy side, was a touch disappointing, not only because they were comfortably beaten by a far superior side, but also because Ethan Ampadu, who had been having a good tournament up to that point, was shown a straight red card for a challenge on Federico Bernardeschi; he will be a miss.
Danes on their way to something great
Denmark’s route to the knockout stage has been a well documented one, recovering from the harrowing events that unfolded in their opener against Finland to put in a great, if ultimately unrewarded, performance against the world number one ranked side Belgium.
They then trounced Russia 4-1 in front of a jubilant home crowd at the Parken Stadium in Denmark, demonstrating just how much quality they do have amongst their ranks.
That result, along with Finland’s 2-0 defeat to Belgium, meant Denmark claimed second spot in Group B, the “obvious” forecast before the tournament began ultimately taking far more twists and turns than best a price of 10/11 realistically should have before landing.
Despite the parallels between these two sides’ tournaments thus far, one major difference is the contrasting momentum with which the teams come into this match. Wales arrive via a grueling game against Italy, while Denmark very much have their tails up after their win in Copenhagen, an incredibly special night for the country.
This is reflected in the betting, with Denmark odds on favourites and Wales as big as 9/2 to get the win.
Plenty of punters are put off by backing favourites, instead opting for more of a “punt”, with higher returns for lower stakes, but quite often it is with the favourites that the most value can actually be found, and this competition is actually a great example of just that.
Punters profiting from favourite backing
At the time of writing, backing the favourite in every match that had a clear favourite would have seen you in profit by roughly three points from a one point stake.
Initially, that doesn’t seem a lot, but that is actually a yield of 11%; if you can find a bank in Britain offering a higher yield than 11% then you’ve done remarkably well.
What this means is, unlike in major domestic leagues, where matches are priced up every week and there is a huge amount of understanding with regards to how long or short a favourite should be, tournament football is very different, and without the same level of data, bookmakers seem to be underestimating the level of supremacy between the favourites and the outsiders.
Denmark are the favourites to win this match, and rightly so. They have a team stacked full of players playing for big-name clubs around Europe, and they have an impressive team spirit.
Wales have done incredibly well to get to this stage, but they are surely out of their depth against Denmark.
Given the difference in class between these two sides, as well as the momentum being in the favour of the Danes, not to mention the underestimation of favourites throughout the tournament thus far, backing a DENMARK WIN at a price of 17/20 makes plenty of appeal.
There is also a huge 11/12 on offer with SBK which is highly recommended should you hold an elusive account with that particular firm.
Wales v Denmark best bets and score prediction
- 2pts Denmark to win in 90 minutes at 17/20 (General)
Score prediction: Wales 0-1 Denmark (Sky Bet odds: 4/1)
Odds correct at 1530 BST (22/06/21)
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