With the group stages finished and the draw set in stone, Jake Osgathorpe uses the Infogol model to assess who will qualify for the quarter finals.
Euro 2020 betting tips: Round of 16
1pt Denmark, Netherlands and Belgium all qualify at 11/5 (BetVictor)
Wales v Denmark
- Saturday, 17:00
- Johan Cruijff Arena – Amsterdam, Netherlands
Wales have done brilliantly to get to this stage and Rob Page’s side showcased that they are a capable attacking team, racking up nearly 4.0 xGF against Turkey, but also that they are vulnerable defensively after allowing over 2.2 xGA when facing Italy and the Swiss.
Denmark lost their opening two matches of the group stage, but their performances deserved two wins based on xG. In fact, the Danes collected the most xPoints in Group B – more than Belgium – while averaging 2.2 xGF and 0.8 xGA per game.
This game is being played in Amsterdam, so Denmark don’t have home advantage like they did in the group, but the Infogol model still makes them strong favourites to progress with a 70% chance of doing so. The bookies make the Danes 69% to progress.
Italy v Austria
- Saturday, 20:00
- Wembley Stadium – London, England
Italy have been one of most impressive teams at Euro 2020, dismantling all three group opponents with consummate ease. Three wins to nil is an emphatic start to the tournament, with their xG process as eye-catching (2.4 xGF, 0.4 xGA per game).
Austria played really well against the lesser sides in Group C, North Macedonia and Ukraine, rightly winning those matches, but were utterly woeful against a more talented Netherlands side, allowing over 3.5 xGA in a sorry display.
Against another high-quality opponent, Austria should fall well short, with the Azzurri hot 74% favourites according to the Infogol model.
Netherlands v Czech Republic
- Sunday, 17:00
- Puskas Arena – Budapest, Hungary
The Netherlands have been one of the most attacking sides at the tournament under Frank de Boer – and it has paid dividends. They won all three group games and averaged a whopping 3.0 xGF per game. Keep creating that many chances and they will continue to blow teams away.
Czech Republic ended up finishing third in Group D, which was a fair assessment of their performances. They were second best in games against England and Scotland, and have allowed 1.5 xGA per game, not ideal when coming up against this Dutch team.
Infogol calculates that Frank de Boer’s side are the most likely team to progress to the quarter finals, with a 78% chance of getting past the Czechs. They are a short-priced value bet to progress, with the bookies giving them a 73% chance of doing so.
Belgium v Portugal
- Sunday, 20:00
- Estadio La Cartuja - Seville, Spain
Belgium won all three group games despite nursing Eden Hazard and Kevin De Bruyne back to full fitness. Denmark really did test them, but their attacking quality told, and they remain incredibly dangerous in attack with Romelu Lukaku leading the line.
Portugal just about managed to get through Group F, finishing third after beating only Hungary, but they looked surprisingly vulnerable defensively conceding six goals. Fortunately for the Seleção, Cristiano scored five times in the group as they averaged 2.2 xGF per game.
The Infogol model makes Belgium favourites to progress with a 59% chance, making them a value price to advance, with Betway pricing them up at 3/4 (57%).
Croatia v Spain
- Monday, 17:00
- Parken Stadium – Copenhagen, Denmark
Croatia beat Scotland to ensure second spot in Group D, but were incredibly underwhelming through the group campaign. They lost the xG battle in all three matches, really struggling for inspiration in attack (0.88 xGF per game).
Spain have been one of the most impressive teams at the Euros so far according to expected goals, ranking as the best attacking team (3.3 xGF per game) and sixth best defensive team (0.9 xGA per game). If they continue to create chances they will blow more teams away as they did Slovakia.
With the Croats being underwhelming and La Furia Roja performing at a high level, the model gives Luis Enrique’s side a 74% chance of making the quarter finals.
France v Switzerland
- Monday, 20:00
- National Arena - Bucharest, Romania
France finished their group campaign by drawing with Portugal, but that was enough for them to remain unbeaten and top the “group of death”. They have shown flashes of what they are capable of, but the feeling is that they haven’t got out of second gear just yet.
Switzerland progressed as one of the best third placed teams thanks to a deserved 3-1 win against Turkey, but they did struggle against the group’s best team Italy. They will be a tough team to break down in this tie, but are unlikely to offer too much in attack.
The word champions should be too strong, with Infogol making them 73% favourites to get to the quarters, which is hard to oppose.
England v Germany
- Tuesday, 17:00
- Wembley Stadium – London, England
England cruised through Group D, winning it unbeaten and without conceding a goal. While they haven’t set the world alight, the Three Lions have been incredibly solid at the back, allowing chances equating to just 0.58 xGA per game. Their attack needs to click soon though.
Germany scraped to second place in Group F, with their only decent display coming against Portugal in a good 4-2 win. Interestingly though, Joachim Löw’s side won the xG battle in all three group matches, so are a team with a positive process to be wary of.
This tie is the closest of the round based on Infogol’s model, with England 52% favourites and Germany at 48% to qualify at Wembley. The bookies make the Three Lions 56% to qualify, so they don’t represent value in this tie.
Sweden v Ukraine
- Tuesday, 20:00
- Hampden Park – Glasgow, Scotland
Sweden caused an upset by finishing top of Group E ahead of Spain, but their performances against Slovakia and Poland were impressive. They have shown a steeliness yet again, and will be a tough out in this competition.
Ukraine were simply woeful against Austria, seemingly wanting to avoid playing Italy in the round of 16, but if that was the plan then it worked extremely well. They showed flashes of what they are capable of against the Netherlands and North Macedonia.
This is the second tightest match-up in the round of 16 according to the Infogol model, with Sweden narrow 53% favourites to progress. The 3/4 (57%) available with bookmakers represents no value.
Round of 16 best bets
- 1pt Denmark, Netherlands and Belgium all qualify at 11/5 (BetVictor)
Odds correct at 1530 BST (24/06/21)
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