Jake Pearson previews the Round of 16 match between Netherlands and Czech Republic, providing a best bet and score prediction.
Euro 2020 betting tips: Netherlands v Czech Republic
1pt Over 3.5 Goals in 90 minutes at 5/2 (Sky Bet)
1pt Both Teams To Score in 90 minutes at 10/11 (Sky Bet, Betfred)
Could the real Frank de Boer please stand up?
There seems to have been some sort of mix up with the man currently in charge of the Netherlands team. Is this the same coach who lasted just 85 days in charge of Inter Milan, and four matches at the helm of Crystal Palace?
The main irritation surrounding de Boer’s appointment in Holland was not in fact his poor recent record as a club manager, but rather his negative philosophy, his style being more akin to that of Louis van Gaal rather than the Dutch notion of “Total Football”.
That has certainly not proven to be the case at this tournament though, with de Boer’s side scoring eight goals in the group stage, racking up the second most chances of any team in the competition in terms of expected goals.
Kick-off time: 17:00 BST, Sunday
TV Channel: ITV
Venue: Puskás Aréna - Budapest, Hungary
Netherlands 4/6 | Draw 14/5 | Czech Republic 4/1
To the Netherlands’ credit as well, despite looking incredibly susceptible at the back against Ukraine, conceding two goals in the second half, they did sure things up at the back in their two remaining group games, keeping a clean sheet against both Austria and North Macedonia. Just how much shut-outs against Austria and North Macedonia are actually worth is up for debate, however.
Czech Republic progressed through to the knockout stage of Euro 2020 as one of the best third-placed teams, posting a win, a draw, and a defeat in Group D.
At one point they looked to be heading through as runners-up, before a Luka Modric inspired Croatia dug out a 3-1 win over Scotland, but in truth, this draw is probably much more favourable for the Czechs.
Instead of facing Spain in the round of 16, followed by a potential quarter final against France and a semi against the likes of either Belgium, Portugal or Italy, Thomas Soucek and co find themselves in the “easy” half of the draw.
If they beat the Netherlands they face a winnable quarter final against the winner of Wales v Denmark, and they may well fancy their chances looking at that.
Get goals onside
The Czechs have not been as prolific as the Dutch in the competition thus far, scoring just three goals, and one of those came from the half-way line. Suffice to say, attacking is certainly not their forte.
The plan as far as the Czech Republic are concerned is likely to be based around keeping things tight, stifling the Dutch, and ultimately grinding out a draw or perhaps a slender victory.
Indeed, in most cases, this approach would be conducive to a lack of goals in the match, but perhaps not so against the Netherlands.
Against a possession-heavy side who are happy to control the ball, play patient football and wait for the opportunity to open up the Czech defence, this game plan could well work, and it could lead to few goal scoring opportunities, but given the Netherlands are not too preoccupied with having the ball - they had only 56% of possession against a far inferior North Macedonia side, and just 52% against an Austria side happy to sit off - and play with a far more laissez-faire attitude, this could pose a different kind of problem for the Czechs.
An early goal for the Netherlands would draw the Czech Republic out and completely change the dynamic of the game, and given de Boer’s side netted within 25 minutes against both Austria and North Macedonia, there is every chance they will do so against the Czechs.
In fact, the Netherlands are as short as 8/11 to score in the first half, with Over 0.5 first half goals as short as 1/3, meaning the bookmakers think someone will break the deadlock early on.
Those prices are too short to back, but given the way a first half goal could shape the game, it makes sense to think that goals in the first half will lead to goals in the second half.
Considering Over/Under 2.5 is currently "pick’ em" (50/50), the fact that 73% (at the time of writing) of the money matched on that market on the Betfair Exchange has been on overs, demonstrates clearly which side of the fence the shrewder punters want to be on.
There is little value in backing Over 2.5 Goals however, with the best possible price available currently 10/11, much down to the margins applied by the bookmakers, but OVER 3.5 GOALS is available at a standout price of 5/2 with Sky Bet, and given the way this game could go, but more importantly, the way the market is going, that makes plenty of appeal.
By the same token, it is also worth siding with BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE, and with most firms shortening that particular selection to around 4/5, the 10/11 available with a couple of bookmakers stands out as a good price.
Netherlands v Czech Republic best bets and score prediction
- 1pt Over 3.5 Goals in 90 minutes at 5/2 (Sky Bet)
- 1pt Both Teams To Score in 90 minutes at 10/11 (Sky Bet, Betfred)
Score prediction: Netherlands 3-1 Czech Republic (Sky Bet odds: 12/1)
Odds correct at 0910 BST (25/06/21)
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